Colombia’s Competitiveness Challenge: finding new engines of growth

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Presentation transcript:

Colombia’s Competitiveness Challenge: finding new engines of growth Daniel Gómez Gaviria Head of Competitiveness Research World Economic Forum March 28, 2017

Agenda World Economic Forum International Context Main feature of the Colombian Economy Challenge: productivity Main competitiveness gaps Competitivenss Agenda and productive development policy

International Context

Economic recovery in the United States… USA Growth rates Source: Bureau of Economic Analysis y WEO abril de 2016.

Weaker dynamism in the euro-zone Euro-zone growth Source: IMF – WEO april 2016.

End of the commodity super cycle Commidity Index (Base = 100 Jun 2011) Source: World Bank Commodity Price Data (Pink Sheet).

Depreciation of Latin American currencies Real exchange rate index(Base 100 = june 2014) Jun-2014 Source: Bloomberg.

Falling growth rates: the “new normal” Economic Growth(%) Emerging Markets China Latin America Source: IMF – WEO april 2016.

Main feature of the Colombian Economy

Colombia has transitioned from a low to a middle income economy GDP per capita (International Dollars, PPP) Source: IMF and World Bank

Poverty has fallen at record rates…. Monetary Poverty Extreme Monetary Poverty Source: Colombian National Institute of Statistics. DANE.

But growth is falling… Quarterly growth Annual Growth Source: DANE- MINCIT

All sector of the economy have been affected…

…affecting external accounts Current Account Source: Ministry of Trade, Industry and Tourism, OEE.

Why didn’t exports respond to the sharp depreciation of the peso?

Colombian exports according to technological content Fuente: DANE - DIAN. Cálculos OEE - MINCIT

Challenge: productivity

Main source of problem: productivity Relative income, TFP and Factor accumulation 1960-2010 15% 6% 10% 5% -5% -10% -15% -20% 18% -25% -23% -30% -35% 1960 1965 1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 Income TFP Factors Source: Fernández-Arias E. 2014. “Productivity and Factor Accumulation in Latin America and the Caribbean: A Database (2014 Update).”

The problem of growth does not come from low factor accumulation

Main competitiveness gaps

The factors and institutions that determine the productivity of a country. The level of productivity, in turn, sets the level of prosperity that can be achieved by an economy.

Conceptual Framework

Main competitiveness gaps in Colombia

Colombia in the GCR 2016-2017

How to prioritize?

Competitiveness agenda and productive development policy

A set of policies: National Development Plan, Competitiveness Agenda, CONPES 3866 Productive Development Policy

An institucional framework: National Competitiveness System

Thank you! Daniel Gómez dgo@weforum.org @dgomezco