Impact of Data Releases

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Presentation transcript:

Impact of Data Releases Released: 12:00 GMT, 14th November, 2016 Next release: 12:00 GMT, 14th December, 2016 Japan’s economic growth deceleration continues The Japan NCI™ is at 110.22 for November, compared to 113.02 in October, and is forecast at 109.44 for December, suggesting that the deceleration begun last month is continuing The level of the NCI™ series has been revised downward to reflect negative surprises in the data flow, particularly in Capacity Utilization for September NCI™ Release Dates reference period 17/10/2016 14/11/2016 Oct-16 114.83 (A) 113.02 (U) Nov-16 113.61 (F) 110.22 Dec-16 -- 109.44 Notes: (A), ACTUAL, denotes the estimate of economic activity for the current month; (F), FORECAST, the forecast for next month; (U) UPDATED, denotes updates reflecting data released since the last NCI publication date. Source: Now-Casting Economics Ltd Impact of Data Releases Release Reference Model Japan NCITM Date Name Period Unit Value* Expectation October November 14/11/2016 Capacity Utilisation: Manufacturing Sep-16 Index 96.70 98.25 -3.87 -1.32 13/11/2016 Gross Domestic Product Q3'16 QoQ % 0.54 0.35 -0.03 -0.01 11/11/2016 Tertiary Industry Activity Index MoM % -0.10 0.09 -0.13 -0.04 10/11/2016 Machinery Orders -3.30 1.37 -0.08 09/11/2016 Diffusion Index Oct-16 46.20 46.05 0.10 0.19 02/11/2016 Consumer Confidence 42.30 86.49 -0.16 -0.33 01/11/2016 PMI: Manufacturing 51.68 51.12 0.66 1.27 31/10/2016 Construction Orders: Housing Units -33.89 -44.78 0.00 Housing Starts 2.97 0.44 0.05 0.01 Passenger Car Production -1.93 -1.25 Vehicle Sales -0.84 -0.31 Industrial Production Excl Construction 0.12 -0.53 28/10/2016 Unemployment Ten Thousands 202.00 207.89 0.13 0.02 26/10/2016 Small & Medium Enterprises Survey 48.30 48.31 Small & Medium Enterp. Survey: Manuf. Nov-16 47.20 47.82 -0.89 -1.67 Small & Medium Enterp. Survey: Services 49.50 49.33 0.03 -4.90 -1.99 Note: Released values are expressed in Model Units Source: Now-Casting Economics Ltd and Official Data Sources