Commission for Atmospheric Science World Weather Research Programme Alexander Baklanov, Scientific Officer, RES, WMO Sarah Jones, Chair WWRP SSC Paolo Ruti, Chief WWRD,WMO I am very glad to present the perspectives and most recent activities of the World Weather Research Programme especially for this meeting … and after the World Weather Open Science Conference… Christof Stache/AFP/Getty Images; Marina Shemesh /publicdomainpictures.net; Alexandros Vlachos/EPA; NOAA NWS; NOAA NWS

Societal challenges: a 10y vision High Impact Weather and its socio-economic effects in the context of global change Water: Modelling and predicting the water cycle for improved Disaster Risk Reduction and resource management Urbanization: Research and services for megacities and large urban complexes Evolving Technologies: Their impact on science and its use As it has been previously mentioned the Commission for Atmospheric Science has defined key long term societal challenges … here I would highlight again the four societal challenges which WWRP should address through its legacy projects and working groups. 1. .. a programme has been recently launched, HIWeather … in the next few days we will have time to discuss in details… 2. .. Moving towards 1-km scale forecasting should result in a more accurate rainfall forecast down to small catchments …. 3. …. 75% percent of the population is projected to live in urban regions by 2050 … what is our vision of weather services and what are the main research gaps… 4. …. Are we able to envisage the observational network in a seamless perspective…. Technical Commission for Atmospheric Science 2 2

WWRP overarching goals Towards Environmental Prediction, integrating modeling components (hydrology, sea-ice, ocean, atmospheric composition, etc.) to better understand coupled processes and to improve forecasting methods. Towards a seamless predictive capability, developing a unified modeling approach to advance environmental prediction on the weekly to monthly time scale. Towards impacts forecasting, building community resilience in the face of increasing vulnerability to extreme weather events, through a better understanding of communication and decision- making processes. WWRP mission … Towards forecasting the impacts of weather-related hazards: improving prediction, evaluation and communication 3 Commission for Atmospheric Science 2

WWOSC 'Seamless Earth System Modelling' Book: http://library.wmo.int/pmb_ged/wmo_1156_en.pdf

WWRP a seamless programme Nowcasting and Mesoscale Extremes Predicting Water Cycle Urbanization Emerging Technologies Tropical Meteorology Polar Prediction Sub-seasonal 2 seasonal High Impact Weather Predictability Dynamics and Ensemble Forecasting Data Assimilation and Observing Systems Verification Social & economics Challenges Projects Working Groups 5 Commission for Atmospheric Science 2

WWRP a seamless programme Nowcasting and Mesoscale Extremes Predicting Water Cycle Urbanization Emerging Technologies Tropical Meteorology Polar Prediction Sub-seasonal 2 seasonal High Impact Weather Predictability Dynamics and Ensemble Forecasting Data Assimilation and Observing Systems Verification Social & economics Challenges Projects Working Groups 6 Commission for Atmospheric Science 2

WWRP a seamless programme Nowcasting and Mesoscale Extremes Predicting Water Cycle Urbanization Emerging Technologies Tropical Meteorology Polar Prediction Sub-seasonal 2 seasonal High Impact Weather Predictability Dynamics and Ensemble Forecasting Data Assimilation and Observing Systems Verification Social & economics Challenges Projects Working Groups 7 Commission for Atmospheric Science 2

Sub-seasonal to seasonal “Bridging the gap between weather and climate” Co-chairs: Frédéric Vitart (ECMWF), Andrew Robertson (IRI) Evaluate potential predictability of sub-seasonal events through a multi-model approach. Understand systematic errors and biases in the sub-seasonal to seasonal forecast range Focus on specific extreme event case studies increasing resilience and improving adapting capacity.   Project Office: KMA/NIMR Commission for Atmospheric Science 2

The Polar Prediction Project Promote cooperative international research enabling development of improved weather and environmental prediction services for the polar regions, on time scales from hourly to seasonal   Chair: Thomas Jung, AWI Project Office: Alfred Wegener Institute, Germany Commission for Atmospheric Science 2

The Year of Polar Prediction   Commission for Atmospheric Science 2

High Impact Weather Project Increasing resilience to Urban Flood, Wildfire, Urban Heat and Air Pollution in Megacities, Localised extreme wind, Disruptive winter weather through improving forecasts for timescales of minutes to two weeks and enhancing their communication and utility in social, economic and environmental applications Implementation Plan (2015-2024) approved by WWRP SSC Links to WCRP through quantifying vulnerability and risk assessment, and for response to High Impact Weather in a changing climate. Chair: Brian Golding, MetOffice “Promote cooperative international research to achieve a dramatic increase in resilience to high impact weather, worldwide, through improving forecasts for timescales of minutes to two weeks and enhancing their communication and utility in social, economic and environmental applications” Christof Stache/AFP/Getty Images; Marina Shemesh /publicdomainpictures.net; Alexandros Vlachos/EPA; NOAA NWS; NOAA NWS 11 Commission for Atmospheric Science 2

WMO 2016-2019 strategy Disaster  risk reduction: Improve the accuracy and effectiveness of impact-based forecasts and multi-hazard early warnings Global Framework for Climate Services: Implement climate services under the GFCS particularly for countries that lack them   Sub- seasonal to seasonal Aviation  meteorological services: to provide sustainable high quality services in support of safety, efficiency and regularity of the air transport worldwide   Polar and high mountain regions: Improve operational meteorological and hydrological monitoring, prediction and services in polar and high mountain regions 12 Commission for Atmospheric Science 2

Key scientific challenges identified by WG/Project What we expect Key scientific challenges identified by WG/Project Key implementation challenges identified by WG/Project Key needs for international coordination identified by WG/Project WWRP mission … Towards forecasting the impacts of weather-related hazards: improving prediction, evaluation and communication 13 Technical Commission for Atmospheric Science 2

Suggested activities (4-5 priorities) 2 year plan 8 year plan What we expect For each CAS challenge Suggested activities (4-5 priorities) 2 year plan 8 year plan Links to other projects and WGs WWRP mission … Towards forecasting the impacts of weather-related hazards: improving prediction, evaluation and communication 14 Technical Commission for Atmospheric Science 2

The planning matrix Technical Commission for Atmospheric Science 15 WWRP mission … Towards forecasting the impacts of weather-related hazards: improving prediction, evaluation and communication 15 Technical Commission for Atmospheric Science 2

WWRP Science Implementation Plan SSC prepare guidelines to WGs and Projects Aug15 Materials to WGs and Projects Sep 15 WGs and Projects elaborate their plan Sep to Nov 15 Prepare elements for SSC meeting Nov 15 Implementation Plan Timeline SSC elaborates implementation plan structure, discuss links with GAW, WCRP and other WMO commissions Nov 15 Drafting V1.0 and interacting with WGs and Projects if needed Dec15 to Jan15 Producing V2.0 and asking WMO commissions (not all), YESS community and GAW for feedbacks Feb15 Final Version March15

Report to SSC: Template. Objectives (1/2 page, review the main objectives of the WG/ Project/etc) Key highlights in the last year (1 page, describing the main activities and rationale) Links to WGs, Projects, International initiatives (1 page, what are the existing links or the ones we need to establish with WWRP WGs/projects, with WMO programmes, and with other no-WMO international initiatives) Next year planning (1 page, describing the priorities for next year) Other elements considering the following items (1 page): Membership (members finishing their mandate) Fund raising (call for proposal, opportunity for research funding) Meeting plan table (table summarizing next year meetings, steering group meetings, co-sponsored meetings but also relevant meetings you think a WG/project member should attend)

Thank you for your attention E-mail: abaklanov@wmo.int WWRP publications available from: http://www.wmo.int/pages/prog/arep/wwrp/new/wwrp_new_en.html WWRP contacts: pruti@wmo.int Staff are thanked for their attention and are invited to ask questions. Other presentations will follow 18

8th Session of the Scientific Steering Committee of WWRP (Geneva, WMO Headquarters, 24-27 November 2015)

http://www.wmo.int/pages/prog/arep/wwrp/new/documents/Final_WWRP2015_2.pdf

WMO Supported Aerosol and Weather Prediction Research 18 UTC, 7 May 2002 30-hr forecast Forecast Models NASA A-Train MODIS CALIPSO & Geostationary Satellite IR Obs GAW/AERONET/SKYNET Surface-based AOD European PM10 GALION Surface-based LIDAR

EuMetChem WG3: Chemical data assimilation in integrated model See: eumetchem.info

New GAW SAG on NRT Modeling Applications / Chemical Weather Prediction / Coupled Chemistry-Meteorology Modelling Application Areas: Chemical weather / air quality forecasting and reanalyses NWP for precipitation, visibility, thunderstorms, etc. Sand and Dust Storm Modelling and Warning Systems Wild fire atmospheric pollution and effects Volcano ash forecasting, warning and effects High Impact Weather and Disaster Risk Chemical data assimilation for air quality and NWP Weather modification and geo-engineering Effects of Short-Lived Climate Forcers Earth System Modelling and Projections

Thanks Info and contacts: www.wmo.intwwrp pruti@wmo.int abaklanov@wmo.int 1. key objectives after the World Open Science Conference, considering the CAS priorities (2-3 slides) 2. New WWRP structure (1 slide) 3. The three legacy projects (1 slide) (Thomas Jung, Frederic Vitart and myself, we will have specific talks) 4. Key priorities for WGNE (6-7 slides) i. very high resolution forecasting link to Aviation and Lake Victoria RDPs (Paul Joe has a talk on this) and link to the water priority .... towards 1-km scale forecasting resolving the catchment scale ii. Integrating modeling components (NWP model, chemical models, hydrological models etc ...) to better understand coupled processes and to improve forecasting methods ... the Urban challenge could be an interesting area where WWPR, GAW, WCRP will converge ... iii. The seamless framework at global scale: how should the work on predictability, dynamics, data assimilation be prioritized to better support S2S and PPP?