Scenario Workshops Clem sumter sessions ICCC 24 Hong Kong 15 - 16th November 2016 H & W Worldwide Consulting neil.j.bristow@hwworldwideconsult.com

Group 1 – major themes Technology Environment People Finance Others Government responses to Climate Change Community Sentiment - coal Regulations Pace of Chinese industry reform – long term Community sentiment Finance Project finance - availability Limitations Supply China’s coal reserves Vertical integration Technology Innovation, mining, blends, utilisation Sequestration, green coal Energy storage Renewables People What to do with unskilled? Expectations of people wanting more Others Vertical integration Derivatives and Index methodology H & W Worldwide Consulting

Eveready Future Happy Dragon Painful death Wasted opportunity 30% 40% Efficient China Eveready Future Happy Dragon 30% 40% Regulation -ve to Coal Regulation +ve to Coal 10% 20% Painful death Wasted opportunity Inefficient China

Group 2 – major themes Wellbeing Technology Population Innovation US energy self sufficiency Substitution Automation Population Overpopulation Food shortages Global urbanization Demographics Geopolitical Trump Brexit/EU implosion Trade sanctions Chinese policy Country alliances/Free Trade Rmb global currency China no 1 economy Wellbeing Social risk Skills attraction Availability of infrastructure Disease Climate change Loss of US sovereignty Water Financial Regulation Derivatives, futures Financial crisis Real estate China bubble Others Industrial right to development H & W Worldwide Consulting

Rip Coal Shangrila Inglorious Bastards Dark age 5% 30% 35% 30% Well being High Rip Coal Shangrila Technology Non disruptive to Coal 5% 30% Technology Disruptive to Coal 35% 30% Inglorious Bastards Dark age Well being Low

Group 3 – major themes Population Technology Others Regulation Coal less US Power storage, batteries renewables Substitution – coal, coke, steel Cashless society Regulation End of US supply Resource protectionism Stricture regulations Land access Geopolitical Global Crisis – all Environment Rising natural disasters Debt Human destructiveness WWIII Terrorism Population Ageing populations Hollowing of middle class Rising gigi factor Others Gas/oil high long term prices Water H & W Worldwide Consulting

Environmental Regulation Low Environmental Regulation High Green paradise Back in Black Technology +ve to Coal 25% 15% Technology -ve to Coal 35% 25% Hero to zero Tight Fit Environmental Regulation High

Group 4 – major themes Regulation Technology Geopolitical risks Energy storage, batteries renewables Fuel Substitution Nuclear future – Fusion Decarburisation Resources Quality Resource depletion Exploration Land access Finance & working capital Indonesia China dominance EAF growth/emergence Global peak coal Market instability Regulation Protectionism Deregulation Public opinion Geopolitical risks War World boom/bust Global disasters Oil shock Population Urbanisation India others demographics Others Gas/oil high long term prices Water H & W Worldwide Consulting

Green Dragon E-Dragon Crazy Dragon Puff 25% 15% 35% 25% China Efficient Green Dragon E-Dragon Technology +ve to Coal 25% 15% Technology -ve to Coal 35% 25% Crazy Dragon Puff China Inefficient

Future steps Current Scenarios Flags (signposts) Distribute for consideration Feedback and comments. Flags (signposts) Collate lists of flags from each group, Establish ongoing monitoring, for mid year reporting. Positioning and Trends Look to identify position on scenario matrix and current trends Follow and monitor events aligned to flags Assess and calibrate current and emerging industry trends Prepare review for next ICCC Update and Assessment (November ICCC) Report back and discussion on scenarios, Update, modify extend, simplify scenarios next ICCC H & W Worldwide Consulting

H & W Worldwide Consulting Thank you for listening, your hard work and be foxy in the next 12 months!! H & W Worldwide Consulting neil.j.bristow@hwworldwideconsult.com