Baltic economic outlook

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Presentation transcript:

Baltic economic outlook Timo Hirvonen Senior Economist 18.4.2016

Weak development in world trade – consumption and services are growing

Mixed picture in the global economy Russia’s recession eases in 2017 China’s growth slows down and relies more on services Moderate growth continues in the USA Moderate growth in Europe helped by consumption Strong growth in India Recession continues in Brazil South Africa suffers from the fall in commodity prices

ECB monetary policy ultraexpansionary

Calm before summer storm?

Baltic countries exports to Russia have declined

Recession in Russia impacts Baltic countries’ exports

Economic growth picture improving

Unemployment continues to decline

Economic forecasts

Better times ahead in the Baltics Weaker export development slowed down economic growth in the Baltic countries in 2015. Contracting Russian economy was a drag on exports. On the back of low inflation and higher employment private consumption was the main driver for economic growth. Estonia’ s GDP growth will strengthen in 2016. Low inflation and higher employment will support households’ consumption, the main driver for economic growth. Investment will pick up more strongly in 2017. Euro area economic growth will support Estonian exports. Russian economy will remain weak. Higher economic growth in Latvia in 2016. Also in Latvia private consumption leads the way for GDP growth. Inflation remains low and employment continues to increase. EU funding programme will spur investments. Export sector has found new markets and better external demand will benefit exports. Domestic demand the key driver in Lithuania. GDP growth is supported by domestic demand. Good employment development and low inflation will keep households’ consumption up and running. Low interest rates and EU-funding will increase investments. Exports to Russia will remain weak, but exports to new markets will strengthen.

Twitter: @HirvonenTimo Thank you! Twitter: @HirvonenTimo

Recent improvement in confidence indicators in Estonia

Diverging development in confidence indicators in Latvia

Minor improvements in confidence indicators in Lithuania