Balticclimate A template for spatial planners „Baltic Sea Region Challenges and Chances for local and regional development generated by Climate Change“ Balticclimate A template for spatial planners (you can use this PPT and modify it for your needs) BalticClimate was implemented from 2009 to 2011 to make the climate change phenomenon understood as a challenge, as well as a chance for the overall and sustainable development of the economic, environment and social sectors in all the Baltic Sea Region countries. The project has been enabling municipalities, local and regional stakeholders to deal with the issue of climate change in a cooperative, integrated and sustainable way. Thus, BalticClimate has been making municipalities and regions more competitive for the future to maintain and enhance the common existing identity of the Baltic Sea Region. SPACE FOR YOUR OWN LOGO! Date, author, subject/ theme, etc.

Structure 1a. What is climate change? 1b. What are climate models? 1c. What are climate scenarios? 2 Climate scenarios for specific areas 3. Changes in climate 4. What are impacts of and measures for your region? 5. How spatial planners can act 6. Example exercises Link to the toolkit

What is climate change? „(…) a change of climate which is attributed directly or indirectly to human activity that alters the composition of the global atmosphere and which is, in addition to natural climate variability, observed over comparable time periods.“ (United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change) Climate change refers to a change in the statistical distribution over decades or longer. The term itself includes changes in climate due to natural earth conditions and human-induced activities. Source: IPCC Fourth Assessment Report, Climate Change, 2007 Atmospheric concentrations of CO2 over the last 10,000 years (large panel) and since 1750 (inset panel).

What are climate models? Climate models are used to calculate the future climate and to produce climate scenarios. These models are three-dimensional representations of the atmosphere, land-area, ocean, lakes and ice. Figure: Typical resolutions over Europe in a regional (right) and global (left) climate model Climate models are used to calculate the future climate and to produce climate scenarios. These models are three-dimensional representations of the atmosphere, land area, ocean, lakes and ice. In global climate models the atmosphere is divided into a grid horizontally along the earth’s surface and vertically into the air. At every point in the grid the development of different meteorological, hydrological and climatological parameters in time are calculated. For global models the size of each square in the grid is 100—300 km, while in regional models a smaller area of the earth is modeled e.g. over Europe with grid squares of 25—50 km. Over a smaller area, a denser grid can be created without demanding so much extra computer power so greater detail can be achieved. What happens outside the calculated area in a regional climate model is controlled by the results of the global climate model so that consideration is also taken to changes outside of the regional model area. At the local level, one would on the first hand choose regionally downscaled climate information if it is available, as the detail in regional models is greater. If this is not available, even information from global climate models can give some indication of future climate, but in a coarser way. Additional information: www.toolkit.balticclimate.org/en/about-climate-change#6

What are climate scenarios? Climate scenarios present information on how the climate could possibly develop during a determined period of time in the future They are created by government authorities dealing with meteorology or climate issues and/or research institutes with the help of global climate models The calculations are based on assumptions about future changes in the atmosphere The results, which are based on calculations with the climate models, are called climate scenarios The results, which are based on calculations with the climate models, are called climate scenarios. Climate scenarios are not weather forecasts. Weather forecasts give information about what is probably going to happen at the local scale during a short period in time. Climate scenarios represent the statistical behavior of weather, which we call climate, but they do not recreate the real weather at a specific place and time. When comparing future climate to our current climate, reference periods are often used e.g. of 20 or 30 years. The results for the future are often compared with the average for this reference period. Normally the period 1961—1990 is used as standard reference. Additional information: www.toolkit.balticclimate.org/en/about-climate-change#7

A climate scenario example for the Baltic Sea Region The information presented shows how the climate could possibly develop in the next 100 years (the average for 2071-2100 compared to the average for 1961-1990) in the Baltic Sea Region. The material is based on calculations from climate models that use information about future changes in the atmosphere. Climate models include the relationships between physical processes in the whole system atmosphere-land-water. The results from the calculations with the climate models cover the period 1961-2100. Change in average temperature, 2071-2100 compared to the 1961-1990 average [°C]. Winter (top left), spring (top right), summer (bottom left) and autumn (bottom right). Additional information: www.toolkit.balticclimate.org/en/climate-change-scenarios

Climate scenarios for specific areas In climate models the atmosphere is divided into a grid horizontally along the earth’s surface and vertically into the air For every point in the grid the development of different meteorological, hydrological and climatological parameters in time are calculated. Regional climate models are used to produce regional climate scenarios Regional models of smaller areas of the earth are modeled e.g. over Europe with grid squares of 25-50 km Within the BalticClimate project future climate scenarios, which you can find at www.toolkit.balticclimate.org/en/spatial-planners/inventory-analysis/climate-change-related-data/future-climate, were prepared for Target Areas in Estonia, Finland, Germany, Latvia, Lithuania, Russia and Sweden. You can use the information in these reports to determine the future climate in your area. Additional information: www.toolkit.balticclimate.org/en/spatial-planners/inventory-analysis/climate-change-related-data/future-climate

Changes in climate Parameter Impacts Temperature e.g. droughts, increased evaporation Precipitation e.g. increasing number of floods and heavy rainfall in Winter, reduced rainfall and droughts in Summer but irregular heavy rainfall Snow cover e.g. crop productivity loss from severe cold, decreased water availability in spring This presents possible climate change impacts on the Baltic Sea Region. It is intended to support future local analyses as a part of the assessment of challenges and chances and the Vulnerability Assessment framework. Additional information: www.toolkit.balticclimate.org/en/climate-change-impacts

What are impacts of and measures for your region? What are impacts on natural an human systems? Possibly impact A … , impact B … , and impact C … in your region What are measures to react on climate change? Mitigation: Avoid GHG and prevent expensive adaptation measures in your region Adaptation: Measures to react on climate change impacts in your region What are mitigation and adaptation strategies for the climate change generated challenges? Strategy A … in your region Measure A, … measure B …, and measure C … in your region New situations arising from climate change impacts, new types and a seriousness of weather conditions (e.g. heavy rain, floods or droughts) in which all BalticClimate sectors (e.g. transport, energy, housing and agriculture) are affected. These heavy weather events cause new challenges to deal with, especially for the target groups of policy makers, spatial planners, business people or regional and local authorities the BalticClimate toolkit focuses on mainly. Additional information: www.toolkit.balticclimate.org/en/climate-change-impacts/climate-change-impact-scenarios

How spatial planners can act: Step 1: Make an inventory (accumulate local physical, social and climate related data) Step 2: Assess the vulnerability of your area (prepare the process, identify exposure, sensitivity, and response actions) Step 3: Plan with consideration to climate change (identify fields of action and process guidelines) Step 4: Implement new and modify existing plans, agreements, strategies and maps The decisions made in planning create a built environment for decades and thus the adaptation aspect is crucial. The adaptation to the future climate conditions, including floods, heat waves etc. should be one of the start points of the planning process. The mitigation activities will demand a lot of effort in the future, in all sectors. Planning can influence other activities in society, e.g. the type of the energy produced and consumed, and thus has a direct effect on the greenhouse gas emissions. By planning compact urban structures, authorities can also decrease the need for travelling and thus decrease greenhouse gas emissions. Additional information: www.toolkit.balticclimate.org/en/spatial-planners/introduction

The BalticClimate toolkit helps the planners to identify the role of the planning process in dealing with the issue of climate change. It starts with the Inventory Analysis of necessary data to assess local challenges and chances generated by climate change. This is followed by the Vulnerability Assessment of the local area and/or chosen sector. Planning and climate change section gives a detailed overview of various direct and indirect effects of planning on climate change and vice versa, the effects of climate change on planning. The section also includes several good practices identified by the BalticClimate project partners. The purpose of these examples (in English) is to show how the climate change has already been taken into account in the Baltic Sea Region.

Example exercises A) Mapping the stakeholders: Identification of key stakeholders in your area Inclusion of them in the vulnerability assessment process B) Identification of existing policies and measures: Creation of a list of the most relevant policies / policy instruments / measures at national / regional / local level C) Challenges and chances generated by climate change: Ranking of the challenges / chances generated by climate change for your area / economic activity / sector Assessing the local challenges and chances generated by global climate change involves many different aspects, issues and actors. Thus, local data is needed to support the analyses and, eventually, to facilitate an integrated assessment of these local challenges and chances. The three exercises on this slide are a part of the inventory analysis (step 1) which help collect data for the next stage, vulnerability assessment (step 2 in the planning cycle as it is described on the previous slide) in order to carry out the integrated assessment. Additional information : www.toolkit.balticclimate.org/en/spatial-planners/inventory-analysis

Link to the toolkit and a variety of examples to be integrated in your PPT: www.toolkit.balticclimate.org The BalticClimate toolkit is an empowering knowledge transfer instrument for the actors on the local and regional level who are not necessarily the climate change experts, but have an important role to play in the preparation, financing and decision making related to the implementation of climate change related measures. Hence, this toolkit addresses three relevant groups of actors: policy makers, spatial planners and business people. These actors are ones who should make a clear commitment and take responsibility for coping with climate change impacts. The toolkit will support the navigation through the complex and challenging process.