Will we be Gourmets or Gluttons? All You Can Eat Data Will we be Gourmets or Gluttons? TECO/cbs-16@wmo.int

Essential Element of the Forecast System TECO/cbs-16@wmo.int

All You Can Eat Data Concept from the Smartphone Industry TECO/cbs-16@wmo.int

All You Can Eat Data Concept from the Smartphone Industry But terms and conditions usually apply… TECO/cbs-16@wmo.int

All You Can Eat Data Concept from the Smartphone Industry But terms and conditions usually apply… TECO/cbs-16@wmo.int

All You Can Eat Data …but why would you want more of something than you actually need??? TECO/cbs-16@wmo.int

All you an eat.. TECO/cbs-16@wmo.int

All you an eat.. Maybe 60 to 70 individual items to choose from. How many did you pick? Probably no more than 6 to 8 The chef did not know in advance just what you wanted.. TECO/cbs-16@wmo.int

All you an analyse.. TECO/cbs-16@wmo.int

All you an analyse.. Perhaps 300 weather observations Each containing 15-20 individual elements of information Perhaps 5,000 individual information elements Maybe 10-20 tell us something new! TECO/cbs-16@wmo.int

All you an analyse.. Weather Charts tell us something about the power of presentation in organising data to promote good decision-making. Use of weather data in analysis also tells us something about the strengths and weaknesses of human and machine analysis TECO/cbs-16@wmo.int

The Explosion of Data Weather Data Minute-by-minute observations Multi-channel satellite imagery (and many combinations thereof..) Radar, Lidar, and other remote sensing TECO/cbs-16@wmo.int

The Explosion of Data Impact Data Damage Reports Traffic Flows Power Disruption Flood extent and depth Airport Delays TECO/cbs-16@wmo.int

The Explosion of Data Impact Data Text Reports Images Videos Increasingly, a lot of this “soft” data is on social media. TECO/cbs-16@wmo.int

The Human Dimension What do we know about how humans process information and make decisions? Not an awful lot! Work of Kahneman and Tversky Israeli Psychologists Studied decision-making in the 1970’s Particular study of military decision-making TECO/cbs-16@wmo.int

Work of Kahneman and Tversky The human mind has two modes of working – fast and slow. Fast – from our evolution Monitoring the senses Keeping us safe Fast, but shallow thinking Very poor at assessing complex probabilities TECO/cbs-16@wmo.int

Work of Kahneman and Tversky Slow – a very human capability Deep thought and study Uses a lot of energy! We tend to avoid it where possible “Thinking so hard my head hurts” TECO/cbs-16@wmo.int

Behavioural Science Thinking Fast – how most decisions are taken Humans tend not to examine all available information in a structured and dispassionate way Use “Heuristics” or “Rules of Thumb” to arrive at decisions (Cheat Sheets) Make unconscious decisions as to the worth of different elements of information Presentation greatly affects these decisions TECO/cbs-16@wmo.int

Behavioural Science Forecast Decisions – typically made quickly Fast Decisions The only way a forecaster can assimilate all that data and come to a forecast / warning decision We may presume that users act similarly TECO/cbs-16@wmo.int

Behavioural Science Training and experience enable an “Expert” to condense years of study and experience into a quick judgement Non-experts find this much more difficult From “Slow thinking process” to “Fast Judgement” is a learned skill TECO/cbs-16@wmo.int

Behavioural Science The problem lies in the “biases” Every person has biases, or blind-spots, and these affect especially our “fast” decisions. The human attention-span is very short – it has been estimated at 8 secs! TECO/cbs-16@wmo.int

Longer Attention-Span? Estimated at 9 secs!! TECO/cbs-16@wmo.int

Behavioural Science We really don’t know a lot about: The mental procedure with which forecasters process information when they come to make forecast and warning decisions; How people use these warnings, and how they modify their behaviour accordingly. Now we are proposing to throw a lot more data at both forecasters and users TECO/cbs-16@wmo.int

Behavioural Science It’s not all bad news! One of the stronger known biases that people have is the “confirmation bias” People will not make a decision to evacuate with information from just one source. They look for confirmation from other sources Information on Social Media offers another source TECO/cbs-16@wmo.int

Behavioural Science Back to SmartPhones… Decisions to evacuate or take other significant actions in face of danger are “Fast” decisions – like “Fight or Flight” decisions SmartPhones engage that “Fast” part of our brain behaviour – sampling and gathering large amounts of superficial data TECO/cbs-16@wmo.int

Behavioural Science SmartPhones and Social Media offer a perfect medium to disseminate supporting information to “official” warnings which will back up and provide additional depth to those warnings. We have to learn to use these new paradigms of communication wisely TECO/cbs-16@wmo.int

Behavioural Science Kahneman again: “….I gave up on decision analysis. No-one ever made a decision because of a number. They need a story” “….the understanding of numbers is so weak that they don’t communicate anything” TECO/cbs-16@wmo.int

Thank you 谢谢 TECO/cbs-16@wmo.int