LFA Revisited Pramod Shrestha 28 June 2016

Why LFA ? Relevant, feasible and sustainable projects. To overcome major errors in planning structure! All key stakeholders participation & efficiency, correct situation analysis correct solutions (activities) Shared understanding of the situation and of different needs and interest - transparency ! Ownership and responsibility

A logical approach to programme management A systematic and structured process and way of thinking A in which the process itself is just as important as the product Cause and effect relationships between actions and effects Necessary conditions Responsibilities B Timeframe Results measurement

Two main phases of project formulation Analysis phase Planning phase Project elements Defining project structure, testing its internal logic and risks. Formulating measurable indicators of success Assumptions Determining the sequence and dependency of duration and assigning responsibility Stakeholder analysis Identifying and characterizing potential major stakeholders; assessing their capacity Indicators Problem analysis Identifying key problems, constraints and opportunities; determining cause and effect relationship We include the PESTLE analysis to examine the environment that can influence or affected projects, but that is not always included. Some e.g. EC Aid delivery methods do not include PESTLE, but use the SWOT analysis. Here can we se the analysis (phase) that we use to gather information that are used in the planning phase. The analysis phase is linked together in a logical “chain” or phases. Where we start by analyzing the environment that the project is going to be operated in (PESTLE), then examine internal and external factors (SWOT). After that we analyze who should be involved and who will be affected (the stakeholders). Now it is time to concentrate on the focal problem and analyze the cause and effect relationship of the focal problem by doing the problem analysis. Then we analyze what needs to be done to solve those problems with special emphasize on the focal problem, by looking into means and ends relationship (objective analysis). When we have done all that we have taken a look at what the problem is who should be involved the project, who will be affected, what does have to be done to solve the focal problem. At that stage we do the strategy analysis to determine what are the most favorable options we should tackle, what objectives will resolve the “most” effective. Then we try to simplify and categorize the options we have in the strategy analysis. (I do not understand this passage – needs to be made clearer) After the analysis phase we have quite clear ideas on what has to be done and why, what is more or most important to do and what we can really do. Then we go into the planning phase where we sum up all the information into a logframe matrix, assign tasks and responsibility, and schedule when tasks should start and when the should be completed and draft a tentative budget. The logframe is the “road map” of the project and helps us organize large amounts of information without loosing the overview. To be able to set more detailed plans we use the schedules for allocating costs and responsibilities, and select the right kind of staff. This system allows us to make detailed plans and even though we have spent a long time on the planning phase, it will “pay off” because when we launch the implementation phase, then the first task is to build detailed activity and resource schedule, which gives us the opportunity to update the planning phase without loosing the integrity of the project. Objective analysis Developing solutions from the identified problem; identifying means-to-end relationship Alternative analysis Identifying different strategies to achieve solutions; selecting the most appropriate strategy

The results chain Based on causality, attribution and contribution Impact Based on causality, attribution and contribution ‘Hope to see’ Long-term development improvements to which we contribute Results Outcomes ‘Want to see’ Immediate effects on clients Beyond team control but achievable given necessary conditions Outputs Implementation ‘Expect to see’ The end products and services; deliverables from the activities; within team control Activities Financial human and material resources Actions undertaken to transform inputs into outputs Inputs

The typical RBM planning process Participation/Stakeholder analysis – identify who has an interest and who needs to be involved A Problem analysis – identify key problems, causes and opportunities; determine causes and effects Analysis phase Objectives analysis – identify possible solutions Alternative analysis – identify and apply criteria to agree strategy Design phase Developing the plan framework – define result chain, logic, risk and performance management B Workplanning – set a workplan and assign responsibilities Budgeting – determine human and material inputs needed

Partnership? Who’s driving the bus? Who owns the bus? Who paid for the vehicle? Who’s maintaining it? Who decides where it goes? When? How? Via? Who’s a passenger? inside? on the roof? hanging on? walking? Who’s paying? Who’s getting a free-ride? Who built the road? Who are the police? Who are you?

Check the logic using if… then Impact Then will we contribute to this Impact? Check the logic using if… then If we achieve this Outcome Then will we achieve this Outcome? If we deliver these Outputs Is each level Necessary and Sufficient for the next level up? Key question Then will we deliver these Outputs? If we carry out these Activities Start here

Sequence Impact Check the logic UP Plan DOWN Outcome Output Activities

Why a Problem Tree? Problem Tree Effects Focal problem Causes Objective Tree Overall objectives Project Purpose Results

PROBLEM ANALYSIS is CRUCIAL! As with weeds, the roots must be tackled, if the weeds are to disappear

Analysing the problem Addressing the effects identifies possible indicators EFFECTS Turning the problem into a positive statement gives the outcome or impact Focal Problem CAUSES Addressing the causes identifies possible outputs and activities

Risks and assumptions Risk A potential event or occurrence beyond the control of the programme that could adversely affect achievement of the desired results.* Assumption A necessary condition for the achievement of results at different levels. UNDG Technical Brief: Risks and Assumptions (2008) *Yes, but don’t forget other types of risks e.g. to security of personnel and resources (fraud)

Risk and assumptions– some key messages The aim is NOT to AVOID risks altogether, but to manage them and take appropriate risks wisely Do risk analysis with key partners - to get a better picture and also buy-in Strong analysis is needed of mission-critical risks Risk analysis should challenge the plan – the results chain logic Regularly track risks and assumptions

Key questions in risk analysis IMPACT? depends mainly on: What is the HAZARD itself? Scale? Seriousness? What is the VULNERABILITY to the hazard? of the poor? of the project? PROBABILITY? The likelihood of it happening. Data? Reliability of data? COSTS? What are the costs of taking the risk? Social? Financial? Political? Who bears them? The already vulnerable? GAINS? What are the gains from going ahead? MITIGATION? What can be done to improve any or all the above?

Risk analysis – an example “I’ve had your results back and I’m concerned about your cholesterol level.” Think through how you would analyse this

Risk analysis – an example The Hazard is the high cholesterol level. I’m male, over 55, with a family history of strokes, so my Vulnerability is medium to high. Put these two together and the Impact is (no denying it) high “Continue at these levels, and you’ve a 30% chance of a major heart problem by 70.” So that’s the Probability. I’d better cut out the cheese, and cream and butter; and eat loads of oats and fish. I reckon that’s a Cost worth bearing. “Get these levels down and you can assume halving the probability. ”

Risks and assumptions An assumption is not the mirror image of a risk. It is not a risk, written positively; e.g. risk - inflation; assumption - no inflation

Risk analysis table Risks Mitigation Assumptions Impact Probability Mitigation Assumptions Airport security screening of all passengers. Screening is sufficiently effective to reduce the risk of highjacking to an acceptable level. Highjacking of aircraft Very High Medium Deterioration of security situation disrupts project results Develop and implement security plan. Liaison with UN security office. Effective preparedness for any deterioration in security; disruption to project results minimised. Medium Low Elite capture of benefits within community Ensure institutional representation of disadvantaged groups. Monitoring of decision-making processes. Transparency such that benefits visibly accrue to disadvantaged at community and household levels. Medium Medium

Re-check the logic using if…and … then Impact THEN we will contribute to this Assumptions AND these conditions prevail If we achieve this Outcome THEN we will achieve this Assumptions AND these conditions prevail If Outputs THEN we will deliver these Assumptions we deliver these AND these conditions prevail If we carry out these Activities THEN we will do these Assumptions If these pre-conditions prevail Start here

Terms in performance measurement Indicator Target Milestone Baseline a quantitative and/or qualitative variable that allows the verification of changes produced by a development intervention relative to what was planned. a specific level of performance that an intervention is projected to accomplish in a given time period. an indicator used during the lifetime of a plan by which progress, usually of output delivery, can be measured. the situation prior to a development intervention against which progress can be assessed or comparisons made.

Indicators, targets and milestones Indicators are means; ‘the proportion of population below $1 per day’ Targets are ends; ‘halve, between 1990 and 2015, the proportion of people whose income is less than $1 a day’ Milestones are progress checks; ‘reduction by 40% between 1990 and 2010, ……..’

Essential Qualities of Indicators Validity Reliability Sensitivity Simple Practical Useful It measures what it is intended to measure without bias. It measures accurately the real change, consistently over time and place. It measures small change or progress and reflects differences in key aspects such as gender. It is easy to interpret and understood by all. Data is available when needed at reasonable cost. It is useful for decision-making, planning and learning.

Data Sources What evidence do we need? How do we get it? Available from existing sources? Is special data gathering required? Who will pay for data collection? How much data gathering is worthwhile? Who will collect the evidence? How often and when? Where will it be located?

Performance measurement matrix Unit Result Indicator Data Description Data sources Collection Methods Frequency Responsible unit / person

LFA matrix/Log Frame

7 LFA STEPS 1 STAKEHOLDER ANALYSIS 2 PROBLEM ANALYSIS 3 OBJECTIVES ANALYSIS 4 Alternative Analysis 5 Defining the Main Project Elements 6 ASSUMPTIONS LOG FRAME/MATRIX 7 Establishing Indicators

How the LFA method works depends on its users LFA is no better and no worse than its users

LFA summary Relevant, Feasible and Sustainable projects/programs - success! Participation & ownership! Joint approach to project Make problem analysis with accuracy /time to correctly analyze causes & effects Connection problems and objectives Add analysis such as cost effectiveness and gender, study on environmental aspects and make a clear division of responsibilities LFA during all phases of the project

Internet information on LFA www.google.com/logical framework approach http://www.ausaid.gov.au/ausguide/ausguidelines/1.html http://lgausa.com/logframe_approach.htm http://www.cgiar.org/isnar/gender/hambly.htm http://www.pcm-group.com/services_helpdesk_faq.jsp http://europa.eu.int/comm/europeaid/evaluation/method s/PCM_Manual_EN-march2001.pdf