C-Change in GEES Future Climate Change Session Two: The Impacts of Predicted Future Climate

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Session Outline Identifying the impacts of climate change Distribution of impacts Long-term impacts Impacts on: Coastal regions Hydrological systems Health Agriculture

What different impacts of climate change can you think of?

Other Environmental Issues… Pollution of water Pollution of air Reduction in water resources Deforestation Desertification Biodiversity loss Food production Exacerbated (in some areas) by future climate change

Distribution of Impacts (IPCC statements) AFRICA By 2020, between 75 million and 250 million people are projected to be exposed to increased water stress. In some countries, yields from rain-fed agriculture could be reduced by up to 50% by 2020. Africa is one of the most vulnerable continents to climate variability and change because of multiple stresses and low adaptive capacity. ASIA Freshwater availability in Central, South, East and South-East Asia, particularly in large river basins, is projected to decrease… [and] could adversely affect more than a billion people by the 2050s SMALL ISLANDS Sea-level rise is expected to exacerbate inundation, storm surge, erosion and other coastal hazards Climate change is projected by mid-century to reduce water resources in many small islands, to the point where they become insufficient to meet demand during low-rainfall periods

Identifying Impacts Impacts are multiple and interlinked Multiplication of uncertainty and the presence of positive and negative feedbacks need to be identified in attempts to determine the impacts of climate change Severity of impacts related to vulnerability and adaptive capacity A simple conceptual diagram illustrating some of the impacts associated with a rising sea level

Is It Too Late ? Figure Source: Fig 5-2 IPCC (2001) Cliamte Change 2001: Synthesis Report. A contribution of working groups I, II and II to the Third Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change [Watson, R.T. and the Core Writing Team (eds.)]. Cambridge University Press, Cambridge

Long Term Concerns IPCC (2007): Figure Source: Table 5.1. IPCC (2007) Climate Change 2007: Synthesis Report. Contribution of Working Groups I, II and III to the Fourth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change [Core Writing Team, Pachauri, R.K and Reisinger, A. (eds.)]. IPCC, Geneva, Switzerland, 104 pp IPCC (2007): "There is high confidence that neither adaptation nor mitigation alone can avoid all climate change impacts" "Sea-level rise under warming is inevitable. Thermal expansion would continue for many centuries after GHG concentrations have stabilised, for any of the stabilisation levels assessed, causing an eventual sea level rise much larger than projected for the 21st century."

Increasing Sea-Level Rise (IPCC, 2007) The rate of global sea-level rise has risen from 1.8 mm/yr to 3.1 mm/yr from 1961 to 1993 Caused by thermal expansion, melting glaciers and ice caps and the polar ice sheets Prediction of between 18 and 59 cm sea level rise during the 21st century However: It is unknown whether the higher rate in 1993 to 2003 is due to decadal variability or an increase in the longer-term trend.

Long Term Temperature and Sea-Level Rise ‘Even if we could stabilize concentrations of GHGs, we are already committed to significant warming and sea-level rise no matter what scenario we follow…the sea-level rise commitment is considerably more than the temperature change commitment.’ Meehl et al. (2005: 1772) Global average sea level rise 1990 to 2100 for the SRES scenarios Figure Source: TS Fig 24 IPCC, (2001): Climate Change 2001: Synthesis Report. A Contribution of Working Groups I, II, and III to the Third Assessment Report of the Integovernmental Panel on Climate Change [Watson, R.T. and the Core Writing Team (eds.)]. Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, United Kingdom, and New York, NY, USA,

The Impact of Sea-level Rise on Coastal Populations About 17 million people in Bangladesh live less than one metre above sea level Philippe Rekacewicz, UNEP/GRID-Arendal http://maps.grida.no/go/graphic/potential-impact-of-sea-level-rise-on-bangladesh

Climate Change and the Hydrological Cycle Effects of climate change are difficult to define precisely – determined by multiple interactions, each with associated uncertainties Arnell, N and Reynard, N (2000) ‘Climate Change and UK Hydrology’. In Acreman, M.C. ‘The hydrology of the UK: a study of change’ British Hydrological Society Adapted From: Arnell and Reynard (2000: 15)

Impacts of Climate Change on Water Supply and Demand Adapted from: Hardy (2003: 94) Hardy, J.T. (2003) Climate change: causes, effects, and solutions Wiley

Impacts on Water Supplies One sixth of world population rely on glaciers and snow pack for water supply Warming trend has major impact where water supply dominated by melting snow or ice. Less winter precipitation falls as snow – no storage of water Increase temperatures - melting occurs earlier Shift in peak river runoff to winter/early spring away from summer when demand is highest Severe consequences for water availability are already predicted with high confidence (Barnett et al., 2005)

‘As the West Goes Dry’… Diagrammatic representation of the impacts of declining snowpack depth as postulated by Service (2004) Service, R.F. (2004) ‘As the West Goes Dry’ Science 303(5661): 1124-1127 Reprinted with permission from AAAS. This figure may be used for non-commercial classroom purposes only. Any other uses require the prior written permission of AAAS.

Water Resources in Southern Africa Southern African subcontinent - particularly sensitive water resources Adapted from: Magadza, C.H.D. (1994) ‘Climate change: some likely multiple impacts in southern Africa’. Food Policy 19: 165-191

Biotic Feedbacks Increase soil microbe respiration: 5oC increase in average temperature leads to 40% change in global average respiration rate Elevated CO2, enhances photosynthesis Also increases water use efficiency – decrease in evapotranspiration

Exercise Betts et al (2007) have calculated projections of increased continental runoff due to plant responses to increased CO2 concentration in the atmosphere. Read the article and consider the following questions: Why does physiological forcing under increased atmospheric CO2 concentrations lead to increased runoff? How and why will changes in runoff due to physiological forcing affect flooding? Why do the authors argue that it is not appropriate to compare different greenhouse gases in terms of ‘CO2 equivalent’? Betts, R.A et al. (2007) ‘Projected increase in continental runoff due to plant responses to increasing carbon dioxide’ Nature 448:1037-1041

Impacts on Health WHO estimate warming and precipitation trends due to anthropogenic climate change of the past 30 years already claims over 150,000 lives annually Prevalent human diseases linked to climate fluctuations Respiratory illnesses Transmission of infectious disease Malnutrition from crop failure Increasing health risks under future projections of climate change Limitations on determining the impacts of climate change on health: Lack of long-term high quality data sets Large influence of socio-economic factors

Heat-wave of 2003 Europe’s hottest summer in over 500 years – average temperatures 3.5oC above normal (Beniston, 2004) 22,000-45,000 heat-related deaths occurred across Europe over two weeks in August 2003. Change in climatic variability associated with long-term climate change important. Exacerbated in urban areas - heat islands (5-11oC warmer than surrounding rural areas). http://www.flickr.com/photos/treehouse1977/3834158551/

Extreme Temperature Effects Effect on extreme temperature when mean temperature increases (for a normal temperature distribution) Figure source: Fig 2.32. IPCC, 2001: Climate Change 2001: The Scientific Basis. Contribution of Working Group I to the Third Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change [Houghton, J.T.,et al (eds.)]. Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, United Kingdom and New York, NY, USA,

Climate Change and Agriculture Potential impacts on world food supplies Changes in atmospheric CO2, temperature, precipitation, soil moisture could alter crop production Shift in growing areas – increase productivity in some areas and decrease in others. Temperate regions – could be beneficial Tropical/subtropical areas - negative impacts. Increased demands on already water poor areas Some areas may be pushed entirely out of production See: Rosenzweig, C., and Parry, M.L. (1994) ‘Potential impact of climate change on world food supply’. Nature 367: 133-138

Effects on Plant Growth Higher CO2 levels could stimulate photosynthesis and crop production – CO2 fertilization Magnitude of effect uncertain Temporal distribution of temperature change important: Increase daytime T max – decrease photosynthesis and increase evaporation – reduce yield Increase cloud cover – more night time than daytime warming (reduce diurnal range) – reduce negative impacts on crop production (Dhakwa and Campbell, 1998) Risk of crop loss in temperate regions could increase as crop pests move polewards

Impact of Climate Change on Agricultural Productivity Major impacts of climate change on crop and livestock yields, and forestry production by 2050 based on literature and expert judgment Figure Source: Fig 5.4. IPCC, 2007: Climate Change 2007: Impacts, Adaptation and Vulnerability. Contribution of Working Group II to the Fourth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, M.L. Parry et al., Eds., Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, UK, 976pp.1 Severe decline in productivity if global average temperature increase by 3oC or more (Brown and Rosenberg, 1999)

Percentage of population undernourished in 2006 Malnutrition One of largest health crises world wide 800 million undernourished (WHO) Projections of effect of climate change on food crop yield production, though globally broadly neutral, may exacerbate regional inequalities (Parry et al., 2004) Percentage of population undernourished in 2006 Author: Lobizon Data sources: United Nations World Food Programme and the FAO’s "The State of Food Insecurity in the World 2006" report http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/File:Percentage_population_undernourished_world_map.PNG

Key Themes Uncertainty and complexity Feedbacks Spatial variation Wide-ranging impacts – think through linkages Environmental and social and economic impacts

References Arnell, N and Reynard, N (2000) ‘Climate Change and UK Hydrology’ in M.C. Acreman ‘The hydrology of the UK: a study of change’ British Hydrological Society Barnett, T.P.; Adam, J.C. and Lettenmaier, D.P. (2005) Potential impacts of a warming climate on water availability in snow-dominated regions. Nature, 438: 303-309. Betts, R.A et al. (2007) ‘Projected increase in continental runoff due to plant responses to increasing carbon dioxide’ Nature 448:1037-1041 Beniston, M. (2004) ‘The 2003 heat wave in Europe. A shape of things to come?’ Geophysical Research Letters, 31 Brown, R.A., and Rosenberg, N.J. (1999) ‘Climate Change Impacts on the Potential Productivity of Corn and Winter Wheat in Their Primary United States Growing Regions’ Climatic Change, 41(1): 73-107 Dhakhwa, G.B. and Campbell, C.L. (1998) ‘Potential effects of differential day-night warming in global climate change on crop production’. Climatic Change 40:647–667 Hardy, J.T. (2003) ‘Climate change: causes, effects, and solutions’ Wiley Magadza, C.H.D. (1994) ‘Climate change: some likely multiple impacts in southern Africa’. Food Policy 19: 165-191 Meehl, G.A. et al. (2005) ‘How Much More Global Warming and Sea Level Rise?’ Science 307(5716): 1769-1772 Rosenzweig, C., and Parry, M.L. (1994) ‘Potential impact of climate change on world food supply’. Nature 367: 133-138 Service, R.F. (2004) ‘As the West Goes Dry’ Science 303(5661): 1124-1127

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Item Metadata Author Dr Zoe Robinson Stephen Whitfield Institute – Owner Keele University, School of Physical and Geographical Sciences Title The Impacts of Predicted Future Climate Powerpoint Presentation Date Created February 2010 Description The Impacts of Predicted Future Climate - Powerpoint Presentation – Part Two of Future Climate Change Educational Level 2 Keywords (Primary keywords – UKOER & GEESOER) UKOER, GEESOER, Coastal Impacts, Agricultural Impacts, Health Impacts Creative Commons License Attribution-Non-Commercial-Share Alike 2.0 UK: England & Wales