Bushfire Persistence & Why Resilience Matters Lew Short, Principal Emergency Management & Resilience

“The world has entered the era of ‘mega crisis’ or catastrophic emergencies’ whose force and magnitude defy even the best laid plans and the most robust response systems” Professor Paul ‘t Hart

Entitlement to build on residential blocks Public are generally unaware of risks Oblivious to bushfire (won’t happen to me) Controls/protection measures – RFS refuses less than 2% of applications and will negotiate for a better outcome in most cases.

Limit to safe operation of helicopters (~50km/h) Potential: Loss of radio & telco towers Loss of situational awareness Limit to safe operation of helicopters (~50km/h) Defensive Indirect attack Parallel attack Limit to direct attack

Capacity of community to receive and act on triggers

Out of Scale Events Big events expose the vulnerability of government Wicked problems and leaps of faith The system will break Blue Mountains 197 house losses No deaths What level of risk is tolerated?

Sydney Basin drained of fire fighting resources and sent to the Mountains What if fires had been burning in northern or southern Sydney OR started in these places when the resources were away? Winmalee http://www.abc.net.au/news/2013-10-26/nswfire-warnings-disaster-relief-winmalee-meeting-bushfires/5047638

“Victims of the October 2013 Springwood, Winmalee and Yellow Rock bushfires are launching a class action against power company Endeavour Energy” ~$200m

In 2012 alone, the total economic cost of natural disasters in Australia is estimated to have exceeded $6 billion. These costs are expected to double by 2030 and to rise to an average of $23 billion per year by 2050 > 3.5% p.a. Brittle & costly assets > population growth, concentrated infrastructure density, and internal migration to vulnerable regions > high consequence events Forecast of total economic cost of natural disasters 2011-2050

All Hazards, All Agencies Prevention risk-based land management and planning arrangements building site location & purpose built design Critical infrastructure assessment and mitigation works Preparedness Emergency Planning arrangements Insurance Mitigation works Warning systems Inform people about how to assess risks and reduce their exposure Recovery working in a swift, compassionate and pragmatic way to help communities recover from devastation and to learn, innovate and adapt in the aftermath Response Triage education systems well-coordinated response Shared responsibility

Our Options An integrated approach to “all hazards” Risk management: natural hazard identification, quantification, assessment, constraint mapping and prioritisation of works Resilience: enhancing the stability of existing approaches (mitigation, hardening of existing assets, warning systems) and implementing works Transition: incorporating incremental change into the maintenance of existing regimens Transformational change: the application of new approaches to risk reduction & problem solving 

Constantly Changing Environment 10/50 vegetation management owners in bush fire prone areas to remove trees within 10m of a home and vegetation within 50m of a home without approval URA bushfire Prone Land Mapping The Commissioner of the RFS can now amend bushfire prone land maps if an application shows that the bushfire risk on that land has changed. Assessing bushfire planning at the subdivision stage can eliminate the need to do a second assessment of bushfire risk when development application lodged Streamlined Subdivision Transformational Transition Transition

Challenge: How to make information accessible In a way that provokes a response Gives greater understanding of risk Initiates action and adaptation Builds capacity Enhances resilience

Thanks Lew Short Principal, Emergency Management & Resilience Eco Logical Australia Lews@ecoaus.com.au Lewshort14 http://www.slideshare.net/LewShort