Rules for Constructing Causal Theories King, Keohane and Verba 99-109

Rules for Constructing Causal Theories Same as causality: the objective is to demonstrate that a variable causes or causes a change in another variable. Internally Consistent: Theories need to be internally consistent.

Rule 1: Construct Falsifiable Theories A theory incapable of being wrong is not a theory. In fact, a theory should be designed so that: 1) It can be shown to be wrong as easily as possible 2) It is tentative. 3) Should be prepared to reject the theory as soon as possible.

Falsification Theories are NOT verifiable: Too many possible Hypotheses No particular theory can in fact be verified, since there are there are an infinite number of possible hypotheses. Hence, the objective is not to prove a theory, but to test its boundaries of applicability. Falsification A falsified theory does not claim universal application. Rather it admits that it applies only to some circumstances, but not all. It can, then, be proven wrong. It is valid under certain conditions or in a particular setting. There are, in other words, boundaries its applicability.

Falsification Example: Theory: In American politics, presidential campaigns have a very limited effect on voter preferences. Hypothesis: There could be dozens or more: 1) Campaign ads have no effect 2) Debates have no effect Etc.

Falsification We cannot test them all to see if any contradict the theory. It still might be the case, that in some situation, campaigns do have an effect. Solution: we should not try to explain everything. Modify the theory so it asserts less: Theory: In American politics, presidential campaigns have a very limited effect on voter preferences, unless a candidate is viewed as dangerous. (1964) (This is not a universal claim. It boundaries are clearly stated.)

LBJ Video

Rule 2: Build Theories that are Internally Consistent Internal Consistency is related to Reliability Reliability: “is the extent to which an experiment, test, or any measuring procedure yields the same result on repeated trials.” Internal Consistency: If any part of your theory contradicts another, it is internally inconsistent, no evidence from the empirical world will uphold your theory. You cannot say that some population has contradictory practices and beliefs. Formal models: can help with internal consistency.

Rule 3: Select DV Carefully Need to avoid selection bias. Should not select cases on DV DV should not be constant. Do no pick just countries with revolutions, for example, if you want to study the factors that facilitate social revolution. Choose DV that vary Have cases were there were and were not revolutions.

Rules 4 and 5 Rule 4: Maximize Concreteness Need to operationalize hypotheses. Rule 5: State Theories in as Encompassing Way as Feasible Value of generalizations. …