Alyson Bailes Small States Summer School Reykjavík 26 June 2013

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Presentation transcript:

Alyson Bailes Small States Summer School Reykjavík 26 June 2013 Globalization and the Future Arctic Governance Agenda: Challenges for Small Players Alyson Bailes Small States Summer School Reykjavík 26 June 2013

What we will cover What are the real challenges? - up-to-date and hopefully hype-free analysis What are the governance options? Which (sorts of) small states are involved? Special small state concerns and goals Guidelines on remedies (Later, exercise to illustrate)

A realistic hierarchy of challenges Climate change itself, inc. natural disasters Risks linked to human activity (inc. present activity) in a shifting environment: physical, financial, societal and human Macro-risks from wrong approaches to development (hasty, reckless, unbalanced, over-competitive etc) Political, legal and military factors

Global warming (NASA images by Robert Simmon, based on data from the Goddard Institute for Space Studies: http://earthobservatory.nasa.gov/IOTD/view.php?id=47628) 1970-1979 2000-2009

Arctic Sea Ice Extent (http://nsidc.org/arcticseaicenews/)

Oil and natural gas in the Arctic (http://geology Arctic Oil and Natural Gas Provinces Map: The United States Geological Survey estimates that over 87% of the Arctic's oil and natural gas resource (about 360 billion barrels oil equivalent) is located in seven Arctic basin provinces: Amerasia Basin, Arctic Alaska Basin, East Barents Basin, East Greenland Basin, West Greenland East Canada Basin, East Greenland Rift Basin, West Siberian Basin and the Yenisey-Khatang Basin.

Map of Arctic shipping routes (http://library.articportal.org/1498)

Arctic territorial claims (http://www. dur. ac

The governance picture General: - local particularities: small and very varied populations, ‘indigenous’ factor - de facto (enhanced) globalization - increased conscious interest by states, companies, researchers; wider engagement and more varied interests/cultures - no single ‘Arctic Treaty’ -

But we do have.... National jurisdictions UN elements: UNLOSC, IMO, etc Arctic Council (and ‘Arctic Five’) Smaller local groups eg BEAC, West Nordic and Nordic cooperation Functional groups eg science, fishing (More arguable): NATO ‘over the horizon’, EU with both practical and indirect impact

Different memberships (mostly drawn from Dr Different memberships (mostly drawn from Dr. Heininen’s Arctic Strategies and Policies, Inventory and Comparative Study)

The small Arctic states are the Nordics The Nordics in the Arctic Circumpolar population

Small states Prima facie shared interests: (Substantive) Peace, minimal militarization, cooperative handling of security risks, sustainable development, fair shares/niches for all, gradual/controlled societal change (Process-related) Transparency, rules-based approaches = predictability, a seat at the table, a voice to be heard

Guidelines for success? KNOW WHO YOU ARE AND WHAT YOU WANT – based on good consultation, good information/intelligence, and realism PRIORITIZE but be always ready to adjust GET TOGETHER WITH OTHER SMALLS (possible options) – and other ‘nice’ ones CHOOSE YOUR ‘BIGS’ – shelter, balance etc ALWAYS GO FOR RULES – but obey them too!

Ways to have a voice Obvious Not so obvious? (and NB, ‘actions speak louder than words’)

Small states in the Arctic: An Exercise