Catastrophic costs potentially averted by tuberculosis control in India and South Africa: a modelling study Dr Stéphane Verguet, PhD, Carlos Riumallo-Herl,

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Catastrophic costs potentially averted by tuberculosis control in India and South Africa: a modelling study Dr Stéphane Verguet, PhD, Carlos Riumallo-Herl, ScD, Gabriela B Gomez, PhD, Nicolas A Menzies, PhD, Rein M G J Houben, PhD, Tom Sumner, PhD, Marek Lalli, MSc, Richard G White, PhD, Prof Joshua A Salomon, PhD, Ted Cohen, DPH, Nicola Foster, MPH, Susmita Chatterjee, PhD, Sedona Sweeney, MSc, Inés Garcia Baena, MSc, Knut Lönnroth, PhD, Diana E Weil, MSc, Anna Vassall, PhD The Lancet Global Health Volume 5, Issue 11, Pages e1123-e1132 (November 2017) DOI: 10.1016/S2214-109X(17)30341-8 Copyright © 2017 The Author(s). Published by Elsevier Ltd. This is an Open Access article under the CC BY 4.0 license Terms and Conditions

Figure 1 Number of households in India with catastrophic costs averted by improved tuberculosis care, compared with the base case, by income quintile (A) Harvard model. (B) TB Impact Model and Estimates model. The base case covers the period 2016–35, during which all coverage levels and treatment success rates were assumed to be maintained at a constant. Numbers of households are shown with 95% uncertainty ranges. Quintiles range from poorest (quintile 1) to richest households (quintile 5). DS-TB=drug-sensitive tuberculosis. MDR-TB=multidrug-resistant tuberculosis. The Lancet Global Health 2017 5, e1123-e1132DOI: (10.1016/S2214-109X(17)30341-8) Copyright © 2017 The Author(s). Published by Elsevier Ltd. This is an Open Access article under the CC BY 4.0 license Terms and Conditions

Figure 2 Number of households in India per year with catastrophic costs averted by improved tuberculosis care over the period 2016–35 (A) Harvard model. (B) TB Impact Model and Estimates model. DS-TB=drug-sensitive tuberculosis. MDR-TB=multidrug-resistant tuberculosis. The Lancet Global Health 2017 5, e1123-e1132DOI: (10.1016/S2214-109X(17)30341-8) Copyright © 2017 The Author(s). Published by Elsevier Ltd. This is an Open Access article under the CC BY 4.0 license Terms and Conditions

Figure 3 Number of households in South Africa with catastrophic costs averted by intensified case finding and improved tuberculosis care, compared with the base case, by income quintile (A) Harvard model. (B) TB Impact Model and Estimates model. The base case covers the period 2016–35, during which all coverage levels and treatment success rates were assumed to remain at a constant. Numbers of households are shown with 95% uncertainty ranges. Quintiles range from poorest (quintile 1) to richest households (quintile 5). DS-TB=drug-sensitive tuberculosis. MDR-TB=multidrug-resistant tuberculosis. The Lancet Global Health 2017 5, e1123-e1132DOI: (10.1016/S2214-109X(17)30341-8) Copyright © 2017 The Author(s). Published by Elsevier Ltd. This is an Open Access article under the CC BY 4.0 license Terms and Conditions

Figure 4 Number of households in South Africa per year with catastrophic costs averted by improved tuberculosis care and expanded access to care in 2016–35 (A) Harvard model. (B) TB Impact Model and Estimates model. DS-TB=drug-sensitive tuberculosis. MDR-TB=multidrug-resistant tuberculosis. The Lancet Global Health 2017 5, e1123-e1132DOI: (10.1016/S2214-109X(17)30341-8) Copyright © 2017 The Author(s). Published by Elsevier Ltd. This is an Open Access article under the CC BY 4.0 license Terms and Conditions