ERCOT 2011 Five-Year Transmission Plan Update

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Presentation transcript:

ERCOT 2011 Five-Year Transmission Plan Update RPG Meeting September 16, 2011

2011 Five-Year Transmission Plan 2011 5YTP Scope and Process SSWG 11DSB Cases : April TPIT Update Match SSWG Cases to TPIT updates Conditioned cases Start Cases (Powerworld) SSWG Contingencies Generation Cost Data Posted on website Reliability Analysis (on-going) September 16, 2011 RPG Meeting

2011 5YTP Status Start Cases POI site for 5YTP: http://planning.ercot.com/planning/near/fiveyr/ Conditioned cases posted on POI site in August (starting point for reliability analysis) Changes to conditioned cases to become start cases Wind units Pmax set to 10% of original value Added generation with signed IA that do not already appear in SSWG cases Input cost information for each generator Contingencies loaded into cases Flat loads are set and other loads are scaled accordingly by weather zone (see next slide for detail) September 16, 2011 RPG Meeting

LTLF1 PEAK - Losses + Flat (MW) 2011 5YTP Status Load Information Evaluated load by weather zone In some cases ERCOT econometric forecast was higher than SSWG forecast For reliability analysis 5YTP cases will use higher of SSWG or ERCOT forecast (highlighted in tables below) Weather Zone LTLF1 PEAK - Losses + Flat (MW) SSWG PEAK (MW)2 2012 2014 2016 NORTH 1624 1717 1768 1949 2022 2100 NORTH_CENTRAL 23348 24987 26309 23681 24411 25161 EAST 2994 3226 3389 2622 2653 2674 FAR_WEST 1842 1920 2086 1870 1885 1905 WEST 2005 2159 2211 1878 1998 2198 SOUTH_CENTRAL 11024 11910 12398 12222 13164 14184 COAST 22229 23448 24382 23057 23490 23872 SOUTH 5699 6059 6380 4994 5471 5670 ERCOT 69046 73792 77373 72271 75095 77764 Using Highest Forecast 73476 77027 81041 September 16, 2011 RPG Meeting

2011 5YTP Status Summary of Start Cases Reserve margins are tight due to conservative demand assumptions Analysis split into 2 regions for 2016 (based on weather zones) with base case created for each region North/ North Central/ West/ Far West South/ South Central/ East/ Coast Mothball Generation activated in 2014 and 2016 cases High cost of generation means little participation Mothball units de-activated in each individual zone during reliability analysis of that zone Table below summarizes the cases with these changes to load and generation 2012 2014 2016 N/NC/W/FW 2016 S/SC/E/C Available Generation 80426.76 84180 85880 Load 73474.3 76826.7 77284.6 79337.3 Losses 1515 1534.2 1637.3 1661.7 Generation 74989.3 78358.5 78981.9 80996 Reserve 4667.46 5051.5 6128.1 4114 Reserve Margin 6.22% 6.45% 7.76% 5.08% September 16, 2011 RPG Meeting

2011 5YTP Reliability Analysis Reliability Analysis & Initial Observations SCOPF & CA completed for start cases (2012, 2014 & 2016) Initial set of reliability projects identified based on the 2010 5YTP reliability projects Next Steps Perform SCOPF and CA with the initial set of projects (studies on-going)and post cases/results for comment Meet with Transmission Owners to discuss results (in the next two weeks) Perform G-1 + N-1analysis Perform project back-out to validate results Determine final set of projects and complete Reliability analysis (target Nov.1) September 16, 2011 RPG Meeting

Questions? March 12, 2010 RPG Meeting