What’s Rush Got to Do With Presidential Primaries?

2008 calendar: Open primaries Texas March 4 Mississippi March 11 Pennsylvania April 22 Indiana May 6

Cross-over voting Is a party’s nominee less tied to the party if benefiting from cross-over voting Is the nominee weaker if benefiting? Is the party’s political speech diluted?

The Limbaugh Effect Did Dittoheads save Hillary’s Campaign March 4th, Texas her ‘Alamo’ Bill said a ‘must win state’ Clinton ‘won’ TX by 100,000 votes out of 2,820,000 Texas an open primary

The Limbaugh Effect Rush, on March 3rd, tells 13 million listeners ‘hold their noses’ and vote HRC Dallas Morning News also reported rumors of efforts Bill O’Reilly mentioned it on Fox

The Limbaugh Effect Limbaugh: “We need to sustain this soap opera” “we need Barack Obama bloodied up politically”

The Limbaugh Effect Strategic cross-over voting Sincere Malicious, “raiding” When might voters engage in strategic voting? Did Limbaugh, et al affect level of strategic voting?

The Limbaugh Effect Strategic Cross-over Voting Requires a fairly sophisticated voted, and: information about election outcomes incentive to maximize effect of vote institutional rules that facilitate action

The Limbaugh Effect Strategic Cross-over Voting In 2008 GOP race known to be irrelevant Obama ahead in national Dem polls Head-to-head polls show Obama stronger vs. McCain than Clinton vs. McCain

The Limbaugh Effect Strategic Cross-over Voting So, in 2016... would a dedicated Democrat care enough to cross-over? how many crossed-over in 2008 for sincere reasons? Socially conservative “Reagan Democrats”

The Limbaugh Effect Strategic Cross-over voting Institutions Old WA Blanket Primary said to be a ‘perfect setting’ to facilitate cross-over voting no penalties everyone voted for all candidates

Cross over voting What do we know? Most studies show cross-over is sincere Support for popular incumbents in WA, CA Parties claim it exists Dixie Lee Ray (Not a real ‘D’ Dem) but she won as a Dem so not malicious

The Limbaugh Effect Evidence of cross-over voting in 2008 Democratic primaries? Exit Polls (which, suck...but forget that)

The Limbaugh Effect Evidence Trends in GOP participation in 2008 Democratic primaries / caucuses Trends in support for Clinton among Republicans participating in Dem events

The Limbaugh Effect If cross-over voting was malicious, Republican should have moved to Dem primaries and supported Clinton

No Limbaugh Effect Proportion of Republicans Participating in Dem Events through June 3rd, 2008

No Limbaugh Effect Ratio of Republican support of Obama to Clinton

The Limbaugh Effect Evidence In early events, 3% of voters were Republican they voted 70% Obama, 30% Clinton On March 4th, 9% of voters were Republican they voted 50% Obama, 50% Clinton

The Limbaugh Effect Explanations: 1) Clinton changed her style, went on attack, which appealed to more Republicans....and targeted GOP voters 2) TX, MS, IN Republicans more likely to be excited by HRC than Republicans in other states

The Limbaugh Effect Explanations 3) Gradual trend where some GOP voters saw their vote had more effect on Democratic side strategic? yes. hard to tell if sincere or malicious hedging

The Limbaugh Effect NO CLEAR LIMBAUGH EFFECT

Cross-over voting Is mere threat of cross-over voting enough for parties to want closed primaries Other voters “dilute” message of a party

2016 WA presidential primary proposal 1989 Initiative to Legislature WA Used primary & caucuses then, until 2012 GOP: ½ delegates via caucus, ½ via primary Dems: all delegates via caucus Primary suspended in 2012 to save $$

WA presidential primary Caucus in February 3% turnout in 2012 Primary after caucus Beauty contest for Democrats 40% turnout in 2000, candidates actually came to WA in 1988 WA part of ‘Super Tuesday’

2016 WA Primary proposal ‘Pick a party’ ballot list of all presidential candidates public record of party declaration Blanket ballot, if parties don’t go along one list, no party declaration