Montana Climate Assessment stakeholder driven, science informed

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Presentation transcript:

Montana Climate Assessment stakeholder driven, science informed Cathy Whitlock MSU Director, Montana Institute on Ecosystems whitlock@montana.edu

MCA Partners

Understanding Montana’s Stakeholder needs MCA driven by outreach to ~900 citizens of Montana to determine: Critical decisions and issues impacted by climate What type of information they need How to disseminate useful information Stakeholder responses informed the MCA strategy 53 respondents (62% extension agents)

Montana Climate Assessment Approach for Montana: Build on national efforts Build on university science, engagement & partnerships Sector-relevant assessments: User relevant Stakeholder driven Useful, updatable products Sustainable enterprise 60+ watershed groups 58 conservation districts – elected supervisors

Key MCA Topics Climate Water Agriculture Forests

How is Montana’s Climate Changing? Between 1950-2015: Average temperatures have risen 2-3ºF. Winter and springs have warmed the most. Montana’s growing seasons are 11 days longer. No changes in average seasonal precipitation. Future: Additional warming of 4-6ºF by 2050 and 10oF by 2100 Precipitation will increase slightly in winter, spring and fall, and decrease in summer.

What does it mean for water? Example ‘lead-in’ slide to each issue – we should have a similar one for forests and agriculture

Montana Water Trends & Projections Between 1950-2015: Snowpack has declined, especially since 1980s. Earlier spring runoff. Streamflow is influenced by warming & climate variability (e.g., El Nino). Future: Snowpack will continue to decline with earlier snowmelt. Late-summer water supplies will decrease. Droughts will more severe with warming. Demands for groundwater will increase.

What does it mean for agriculture? http://www.lakecountycdc.org/content/images/MMFEC/Beignet_wants_fresh_grass.jpg

Montana Agriculture projections Future: Decreasing snowpack will reduce late-season irrigation capacity (affect hay, sugar beet, malt barley, garden/potato production). Longer growing season could enable crop diversity but with greater vulnerability. More days >90ºF will impact wheat & stress livestock. Winter annual weeds will increase. There are multiple drivers in Ag decision making; climate will become more important as warming increases.

Future of the MCA Public Comment Period April 10-May 5: Check the MCA website: http://montanaioe.org/mca MCA 1 will be released in August 2017 Cathy Whitlock (whitlock@montana.edu) Bruce Maxwell (bmax@montana.edu) MCA “road show events” in Fall (working with Extension, Extended Univ. to reach MT communities) not a lone wolf… Montana is ready to work together like these wolf pups.

MAKE is a partnership of the state’s universities, extension service, state and Federal agencies, businesses, and non- profits. MAKE is a non-political collaborative program that facilitates the exchange of knowledge between scientists and stakeholders of Montana. MAKE’s first priority is climate change adaptation, building on the success of the first Montana Climate Assessment.