Queen’s University Belfast

Slides:

Advertisements

Similar presentations

The West` Washington Idaho 1 Montana Oregon California 3 4 Nevada Utah

Advertisements

TOTAL CASES FILED IN MAINE PER 1,000 POPULATION CALENDAR YEARS FILINGS PER 1,000 POPULATION This chart shows bankruptcy filings relative to.

PERCENTAGE OF CITIZENS AGE 18+ WHO VOTED IN THE 2008 PRESIDENTIAL ELECTION MINNESOTA = 75.0 D. C. = 74.1 MAINE = 71.2 NEW HAMPSHIRE = 71.2 WISCONSIN =

Presidential Elections The people who cast the votes do not decide an election, the people who count the votes do. -- Joseph Stalin ( )

GOP Coalition Key Groups –Sunbelt –Evangelicals –Affluent suburbanites –White working class Key Policies –Military spending –“Traditional family.

How to win a Presidential Election. The rules of the game Electoral College.

Introduction to the American Political Process Elections.

BINARY CODING. Alabama Arizona California Connecticut Florida Hawaii Illinois Iowa Kentucky Maine Massachusetts Minnesota Missouri 0 Nebraska New Hampshire.

Civics/Geography. Notes: On both maps, the red states indicate Republican votes and the blue states indicate votes for Democrats. 1.What vocabulary do.

U.S. Civil War Map On a current map of the U.S. identify and label the Union States, the Confederate States, and U.S. territories. Create a map key and.

Evangelicals, Born Agains, and Fundamentalist Christians in Election 2004 May 26, 2004 Source:

PERCENTAGE OF CITIZENS AGE 18+ WHO VOTED IN THE 2008 PRESIDENTIAL ELECTION MINNESOTA = 75.0 D. C. = 74.1 MAINE = 71.2 NEW HAMPSHIRE = 71.2 WISCONSIN =

Meet The Candidates! Republican Ticket Democratic Ticket.

2008 US Presidential Election Part 1 Democratic Convention Denver Aug January – June State-by-stateGeneral Election Delegate selection November.

1 Obama for America David Plouffe Campaign Manager David Plouffe Campaign Manager.

Map Review. California Kentucky Alabama.

1. AFL-CIO What percentage of the funds received by Alabama K-12 public schools in school year was provided by the state of Alabama? a)44% b)53%

A Worksheet About How to Win the Presidency

The United States.

PERCENTAGE OF CITIZENS AGE 18+ WHO VOTED IN THE 2008 PRESIDENTIAL ELECTION MINNESOTA = 75.0 D. C. = 74.1 MAINE = 71.2 NEW HAMPSHIRE = 71.2 WISCONSIN =

Directions: Label Texas, Arkansas, Louisiana, Mississippi, Tennessee, Alabama, Georgia, Florida, South Carolina, North Carolina, Virginia--- then color.

2012 Election Overview The National Association of Business Political Action Committees 2012 NABPAC POST-ELECTION CONFERENCE PRESENTED BY: Hans Kaiser.

AGENDA December 12/13, 2013 Today’s topics  Democracy in Action: Booklets & questions  The Electoral College  Electoral College reform proposals 

CHAPTER 7 FILINGS IN MAINE CALENDAR YEARS 1999 – 2009 CALENDAR YEAR CHAPTER 7 FILINGS This chart shows total case filings in Maine for calendar years 1999.

Thursday February 19, 2015 Mr. Goblirsch – American Government OBJECTIVE – Students Will Be Able To – SWBAT: - Describe the flaws & proposed reforms of.

Pros and Cons of the Electoral College

American Government and Organization PS1301 Thursday, 4 November.

Project by Turgumbayev Yedige O Election in Kazakhstan Election in Kazakhstan O Valuation statistics in Kazakhstan in 2011 Valuation statistics in Kazakhstan.

Hawaii Alaska (not to scale) Alaska GeoCurrents Customizable Base Map text.

US MAP TEST Practice

THE REPUBLICAN PARTY. Mitt Romney Childhood Career The Republican candidate Critic.

TOTAL CASE FILINGS - MAINE CALENDAR YEARS 1999 – 2009 CALENDAR YEAR Total Filings This chart shows total case filings in Maine for calendar years 1999.

Electing a President. Agenda for the day 1.Activator: Where are we in the current race for U.S. President 2.Video: How does the electoral college work?

How to Win an Election. Decide who you are! First a politician needs to align his/herself to a political party. In the U.S. the best chance of winning.

Introduction to the American Political Process Elections.

Hotline Presidential Update Top Hotline Presidential Campaign Stories of the Month June 15, 2016 Producer: Owen Minott Jr. Edited by: Katharine Conlon.

State Election Preview 2016 Tim Storey National Conference of State Legislatures March 30, 2016.

USA ILLUSTRATIONS – US CHARACTER Go ahead and replace it with your own text. This is an example text. Go ahead and replace it with your own text Go ahead.

December 5, 2016 Conducting the Exit Polls in the U.S.:

PRESIDENTIAL ELECTIONS Flip Teaching

The United States Song Wee Sing America.

Expanded State Agency Use of NMLS

Presidential Primaries

The United States.

Reviewing the 2016 Election Stephen J. Farnsworth, Ph.D.

Physicians per 1,000 Persons

USAGE OF THE – GHz BAND IN THE USA

Name the State Flags Your group are to identify which state the flag belongs to and sign correctly to earn a point.

First Female US Attorney General Dies

Some men see things as they are and say why?

Latino Participation and Partisanship

2008 presidential election

The States How many states are in the United States?

Table 2.3: Beds per 1,000 Persons by State, 2013 and 2014

Regions of the United States

The United States Presidential Election Process: Undemocratic?

Supplementary Data Tables, Utilization and Volume

“Donald Trump Clinches The Presidency”

A candidate can become president of the United States by securing the electoral votes of the 11 states with the most electoral votes. To the best of your.

Presidential Electoral College Map

Elections & Voting Behavior

2012 US Presidential Election Result

“Chicago Cubs Win the World Series”

2008 presidential election

WASHINGTON MAINE MONTANA VERMONT NORTH DAKOTA MINNESOTA MICHIGAN

Nominating the President

Expanded State Agency Use of NMLS

CBD Topical Sales Restrictions by State (as of May 23, 2019)

In 2006, approximately 46% of all AIDS cases among adults and adolescents were in the South, followed by the Northeast (26%), the West (16%), and the Midwest.

USAGE OF THE 4.4 – 4.99 GHz BAND IN THE USA

Presentation transcript:

Queen’s University Belfast Making a Deal with the Devil in Order to Do God’s Bidding: Evangelicals, the 2016 Election, and Beyond Christopher D. Raymond Lecturer in Politics Queen’s University Belfast C.Raymond@qub.ac.uk

% Vote for Trump Source: ANES 2016

Why? …did Evangelicals (religious Protestants) vote for Trump in 2016? …did Trump work so hard to court religious Protestants?

From the Voter’s Perspective Demographic threat Declining share of the population Cannot enact policy on their own No credible threat of supporting Democrats Had to put their faith in Trump Room for hope in the MAGA coalition Restoration of traditional values(?)

Changing Religious Demography

Protestant and Non-Religious Shares of the Population over Time Source: General Social Surveys, 1972-2016

Evangelical and Non-Religious Shares of the Electorate over Time, 1996-2016 Source: Exit polls conducted in each election

From Trump’s View Evangelicals crucial for GOP Committed core essential in 2000, 2004 No chance of converting Democrats Needed to make up for Trump’s deficits Fit into MAGA coalition Help expand the map? Trump needed Evangelicals

The Marginal Effect of Evangelical Populations on State-Level Vote Shares for Trump in 2016, Conditional on Population Density

Changing Effects of Evangelical Populations on Republican Presidential Candidates’ State-Level Vote Shares over Time

Simulated Effects of the Evangelical Variable in Marginal States (States Trump Won or Loss by <10%) Italics = Trump Won; Underlined = 90% Sig. State Effect Arizona 0.30 New Hampshire 0.08 Colorado 0.33 New Mexico 0.60 Florida -0.14 North Carolina 0.01 Georgia 0.04 Ohio -0.07 Iowa 0.32 Pennsylvania Maine* 0.38 Texas 0.17 Michigan Virginia -0.00 Minnesota 0.27 Wisconsin 0.16 Nevada 0.50

Concluding Thoughts Evangelicals needed Trump Can’t influence the agenda absent Trump Trump needed Evangelicals Helped flip, hold states in 2016 Sets up 2020 battleground map Predictions: Evangelicals remain loyal to Trump in 2020 Trump delivers on campaign promises

Thank you