Elections and Voting Chapter 13

We’ll Cover: Types of Elections, especially primaries The Electoral College Patterns in Voter Turn-out Reasons why people don’t vote

Different Kinds of Elections Primary Elections Presidential Tuesday’s Congressional primaries: http://www.newsweek.com/2010/06/08/today-s-primaries-all-politics-is-national.html?GT1=43002 Howard Dean on Dems plans: http://www.msnbc.msn.com/id/21134540/vp/37570965#37575865 General Elections Initiative, Referendum, Recall

Presidential Primary Elections Determine: Delegates for Presidential Candidates to the national conventions How many delegates? http://www.thisnation.com/question/021.html Types of primaries: Proportional Representation (presidential – esp Democrats) Party Caucus (presidential) Winner Take All (most other elections, some presidential – esp. Republicans)

Washington State Presidential Primaries and Caucuses We have both Democrats Will used only caucus numbers: 97 delegates: 78 pledged, 12 unpledged Republicans Some delegates based on caucuses: 18 Some on primaries: 19 Some unpledged: 3

Primary Elections Scheduling: Early vs Late Frontloading more than ever in 2008 http://www.gwu.edu/~action/2008/chrnothp08.html http://www.npr.org/templates/story/story.php?storyId=12662764 http://www.npr.org/templates/story/story.php?storyId=13872700

Figure 13.4- Front-loading

Senate, House and most other Primary Elections Determine: The party nominee for the general election Types of primaries: Mostly: Winner Take All

Washington State’s Primaries Blanket Primary system 1935-2003 Top Two Primary Initiative Open Primary (aka pick-a-party) 2006 History http://www.sos.wa.gov/elections/primary_systems.aspx Closed Primary: define (we do not have in WA)

Electoral College Used for the Presidential General Election A compromise (Similar to the “Great Compromise”) Number of Electors per state = Reps in House + Senators Washington: 9 Reps + 2 Senators = 11 Electoral votes California 52 Reps + 2 Senators = 54 Electoral votes.

Figure 13.5- Electoral College Back

Electoral College There are a total of 538 electoral votes (535 members of Congress and 3 for the District of Columbia) Each state’s votes counted separately Winner takes ALL in each state (by big or small margin) except 2 “Electors” from that state that vote in December A majority of 270 wins the presidency.

What if no candidate gets 270? 12th Amendment: decision goes to House of Representatives Each state gets one vote 1824 election: http://www.multied.com/elections/1824.html Other disputed elections http://www.multied.com/elections/Disputedelections.html

Electoral College A candidate can win a majority of electoral votes with a minority of popular votes and still be elected to the office: George W. Bush in 2000 Benjamin Harrison in 1888 Rutherford Hayes in 1876 “Faithless” Electors can and do occasionally vote against their state’s wishes, Rare, especially in recent times Electors are chosen for party loyalty

Presidential Election 2000 Al Gore (D) 50,996,116 votes 48% 21 States Won 266 Electoral Votes George Bush (R) 50,456,169 votes 48% 30 States Won 271 Electoral Votes

Presidential Election 2004 John Kerry (D) 59,028,109 votes 48% 20 States Won 252 Electoral Votes George Bush (R) 62,040,606 votes 51% 31 States Won 286 Electoral Votes

2008 results NY Times map: http://elections.nytimes.com/2008/results/president/map.html?scp=1&sq=2008%20presidential%20election%20results&st=cse

Congressional Districts Washington State: http://www.democracyforwashington.com/reps/wacongresssm.gif First district: http://www.house.gov/inslee/resources/graphics/districtmap.gif Gerrymandering

Figure 13.4

Congressional Elections Incumbancy Advantages Countervailing Forces Redistricting Scandals Presidential coattails Midterm elections: mixed Usually losses for president’s party

Table 13.3- Congressional Elections

Voting Behavior Voter Participation ~40% of eligible population votes regularly ~ 25% vote occasionally ~ 35% rarely or never vote Italy, Australia,Sweden: 80% +

AV- Turnout of Eligible Voters

Figure 13.3- Registered Voters

Presidential elections 2000: 51% 2004: 60% White: slightly over 60% Black: mid 50% Hispanics: 38%

Who turns out? How do you explain these patterns? Education: Those with a college education more likely to vote Income: higher incomes vote more Age: aged 30-70 most likely to vote Fewer than 50% of 18-24 yr olds are registered Gender: women and men nearly even Race: whites tend to vote more Region: North votes more than South Interest: politically interested and active, vote

Figure 13.2- Why People Don’t Vote

Is turnout important? How can we improve it? Who would benefit?

Patterns in Voting Choice Voters use: Retrospective judgment Prospective judgment Who benefited from each in the last presidential race?

Party identification A citizen’s personal affinity for And tendency to vote for Half of states require party declaration when registering to vote Influences in party ID: Parents: most important Also: hot issues, charismatic candidates, class

Patterns in Party Choice: D or R? Geography Gender Race and Ethnicity Age Social and Economic factors Religion Marital Status Ideology Education (Ch 12: 450-455) See charts on p 451-2

Patterns in Vote Choice Party: Democrats largely vote for Democrats. Ticket-splitting has increased. Race: minorities largely vote for Democrats. Gender: women more likely to vote for Democrats. Income: poor largely vote for Democrats. Ideology: liberals largely vote for Democrats

Independents 2004: 38 % identified selves as Independent Many of these are “leaning”

How do you decide how to vote? What resources can you use?