Peter Conlong Justice Analytical Services Scottish Government

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Presentation transcript:

Peter Conlong Justice Analytical Services Scottish Government If crime is falling, why is the Scottish prison population still so high? Peter Conlong Justice Analytical Services Scottish Government

Long term trends in crime and the prison population Crime starts to drop after 1991 …but prison population growth accelerates

Breakdown of crimes and offences

Trends in non-sexual crimes of violence

Trends in male prison population

Population by crime type: men

Total population

Housebreaking/ shoplifting By crime type Serious violent crime Drugs & weapons & CAPJ Housebreaking/ shoplifting Common assault Sexual crimes

Influence of crime trends

Influence of clear-up rates

Impact of court conviction rate

…add in % custodial sentences

Changes in sentence length

…if crime hadn’t changed:

…if crime hadn’t changed:

Trends in female prison population

Population by crime type

Total population

By crime type Drugs & CAPJ Serious violent crime Shoplifting Common assault

Influence of crime trends

Influence of clear-up rates

Impact of court conviction rate

…add in % custodial sentences

Changes in sentence length

…if crime hadn’t changed:

…if crime hadn’t changed:

Life sentences – average time served

Estimated number of prison places associated with convictions for domestic abuse

Conclusions Rise in prison population largely due to: Improvements in clear-up rates and conviction rates Convictions for previously ‘hidden’ crime types such as domestic abuse and sexual offences Upward drift in average sentence lengths (esp. housebreaking, handling an offensive weapon, domestic abuse, and murder) Post 2011-12: crime drop outweighed system-driven effects

Reality check…

Reality check…