Jersey’s Economic performance & Labour Market

Overview Economic performance 2000 - 2012 Labour Market: June 2013 Official Statistics in Jersey Who we are & what we do Inform evidence-based Policy development Economic performance 2000 - 2012 Gross Value Added, GVA Total and by sector Economic standard of living Labour Market: June 2013 Total public and private sectors Unemployment: registered and ILO

Who we are: Background: States of Jersey Statistics Unit States of Jersey’s “National Statistics Office” Part of Chief Minister’s Department but professionally independent Publicly accountable to the Statistics Users Group

Robust Official Statistics => Evidenced-based policy Economic: Inflation: retail & house price indices Labour market: employment; earnings Performance: GVA, overall and by sector Social: Annual Social Survey, JASS Household Expenditure Survey, HES Income Distribution Survey, IDS SD Eg IDS -> inform new income support system Popn model – use english death rates (GAD involved – appropriate for Jersey). Fertility rate for Jersey (1.57). Migration variables are from Census analysis. Also modelling heads of hosuehold inmigrants and their households they bring with them from a study done by Oxera. - used by Gary purcell jones, modelling dementia in older population - used by Soc Sec in working on pension provision longer term - used by planning working to ensure supply of housing The Census & annual updates Total population and Net migration Modelling and projections Population:

Publications Jersey in Figures See Release Schedule at ww.gov.je/statistics Publications Economic Retail Price Index House Price Index Average Earnings Index UK/Jersey Price Comparisons Social & demographic The Census Population updates & projections Jersey Annual Social Survey Household Spending and Income GVA and GNI Labour Market: employment Survey of Financial Institutions Business Tendency Survey Retail Sales Index Registered Unemployment Housing Needs Heritage and Culture Youth Survey KG Core stats – mainly economic but also Household surveys (JASS, HSIS) Stats publications – compendiums of data Surveys run by stats on behalf of other departments Housing needs – planning HOS – HR SOJ Heritage – heritage/planning Supermarket – EDD Youth service Youth?? Jersey Economic Digest Jersey in Figures

Measuring Jersey’s Economy Gross Value Added (GVA) 2012

Economic performance: measure by Gross Value Added, GVA Gross operating surplus (business “profits”) + Compensation of employees wages, salaries, bonuses social security, pension contributions Mixed Income (sole traders)

GVA in constant values of income (2003 values) total GVA: lowest in real terms since at least 1998 Non-finance GVA > Finance GVA for last three years

Annual % change in GVA in real terms

GVA by sector in 2012

Sectors: annual real term change in GVA 1999-2011 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 (r) 2012 (p) Agriculture -5% -10% 2% -3% 3% 4% 5% -14% -15% Manufacturing -1% -7% -9% -6% 1% -8% Electricity, gas & water -4% 8% -13% -18% Construction 7% 0% Wholesale & retail -2% Hotels, restaurants & bars Transport, storage & communication Financial services 9% 11% -11% Other business activities (excluding rental) 13% Public administration Total GVA

GVA per capita indicator of economic standard of living 2012: GVA £3 GVA per capita indicator of economic standard of living 2012: GVA £3.6 billion; population 99,000 => GVA per capita £36,700 Population and real term GVA from 2001 to 2012

GVA per capita In real terms: 2008-2012 : decreased by a fifth (down by 21%)

Jersey Labour Market June 2013 Private + Public sectors Statistics Unit 14

Total and Private sector (June of each year, 1997-2013) Total employment (56,290); down 110 compared with June 2012 & down 620 compared with June 2011 total employment relatively flat during last five years (June 2008 - June 2013) Statistics Unit 15

Total and private sector headcount (weighted 12-month moving averages)

Annual Percentage Change in Total Employment Since June 2012, marginal falls in total employment of less than 1% June 2013: 0.2% decrease compared with June 2012

Sectoral breakdown Statistics Unit 18

Private sector Statistics Unit Total = 49,360 (net decline of 270 employees since June 2012) Net annual decrease driven by: Wholesale and retail: -450 Finance: -190 Construction: -150 Fulfilment (270 employees in June 2013): - 180 annually less than a third of that recorded in 2009 & 2010 - 700 compared in last 3 years In comparison Hotels, restaurants & bars: + 210 compared with June 2012 Private Sector Service Industries: + 280 compared with June 2012 Statistics Unit 19

Finance sector : Dec 2005 – June 2013 Figure 4 – Six-month changes in Finance sector employment, 2005 - 2013 Total employment within the Finance sector (12,400) was; down 190 on an annual basis down more than 1,000 since peak seen in 2008 lowest since 2006 Decrease driven by Banking subsector ; down 170 since June 2012 down 1,110 since June 2008 at lowest level since at least 1998 Statistics Unit 20

Residential Qualifications (under Reg. of Unds.) Private sector: 86% LQ; 3% j-cat; 11% NQ % NQ by Sector 18% Statistics Unit 21

j-category employees June 2013: Private sector j-category employees - June of each year 2003 - 2013 June 2013: 1,200 j-category employees in the private sector up 30 compared with June 2012 => highest level to date more than double that recorded 10 years ago Public sector j cats (560) Statistics Unit 22

Unemployment Statistics Unit Registered & Actively Seeking Work in June 2013 : seasonally adjusted : substantially flat over the last 5 months more than doubled over last four years The ILO unemployment rate in June 2013 was estimated at 5.7% (3,200 people) At the census (April 2011) the ILO rate was 4.7% Statistics Unit 23

ASW : last three decades 24

Statistics Unit Total employment (56,290); Summary Total employment (56,290); down 110 compared with June 2012 (Private sector down 270 ; Public sector up 150) Private sector (49,360); down 800 from peak of June 2011 similar to 2009 and 2010 Active employers in Jersey (7,040) up 170 on an annual basis driven by increase in single person businesses (up +130 since June 2012) Sectoral; Wholesale & retail: - 450 compared with June 2012 (Fulfilment: -180 annually) Construction: - 150 compared with June 2012 Finance: - 190 annually & more than -1,000 since peak of 2008 driven by Banking: - 170 since June 2012 ; over -1,100 since 2007 Hotels, restaurants & bars & Private Sector Service Industries: each up more than 200 compared with June 2012. The ILO unemployment rate in June 2013 was 5.7%, corresponding to 3,200 people unemployed Statistics Unit 25

GVA per capita comparison with UK GVA per capita 2012: Jersey £36,700 UK £21,900 => Jersey about two-thirds greater GVA per capita than UK Real-term change 2008-2012 Jersey down 21% UK down 7% UK regions (2011) London £ 35,600 South East £ 22,400 England £ 21,300 Scotland £ 20,600 South West £ 19,100 Other regions £ 17,000 - £19,000 Northern Ireland £ 16,500 North East England £ 15,800 Wales £ 15,700

GNI in 2012 Current year values GNI was £4.0 billion down 1% nominally on 2011 Constant year Down 4% in real terms on 2010 NB: GNI is particularly sensitive to fluctuations in transfers of money into the Island which are influenced by performance of other economies;

Locally and Non-Locally qualified employees Annual change in private sector employment by residential qualification Private Sector Employment Locally qualified: total of 42,000 (up 270 compared with June 2012) highest level for at least10 years Non-Locally qualified: total of 6,160 (down 570 compared with June 2012) lowest June figure for at least 10 years Statistics Unit 28

Employment by nationality June 2013: 69% of contributions from Jersey/UK nationals A8 country nationals (3,220) down 260 compared with June 2012 driven by reduction in Polish nationals (down 240) Portuguese nationals (5,990) up 80 annually

Long-term ASW 30