Manufacturing for Sustainability National Academy of Engineering June 11, 2012

300 Years of Regional Population Growth Africa Asia Europe Latin Am. & Caribbean Northern America Oceania World 1750 106,000,000 502,000,000 163,000,000 16,000,000 2,000,000 791,000,000 1800 107,000,000 635,000,000 203,000,000 24,000,000 7,000,000 978,000,000 1850 111,000,000 809,000,000 276,000,000 38,000,000 26,000,000 1,262,000,000 1900 133,000,000 947,000,000 408,000,000 74,000,000 82,000,000 6,000,000 1,650,000,000 1950 221,000,000 1,402,000,000 547,000,000 167,000,000 172,000,000 13,000,000 2,521,000,000 1998 749,000,000 3,585,000,000 729,000,000 504,000,000 305,000,000 30,000,000 5,901,000,000 2050 1,766,000,000 5,268,000,000 628,000,000 392,000,000 46,000,000 8,909,000,000 source: United Nations, 1973. "The Determinants and Consequences of Population Trends, Vol.1" (United Nations, New York). United Nations, (forthcoming). "World Population Prospects: The 1998 Revision" (United Nations, New York). World Population Trends World Population Prospects The 2010 Revision UN, 2011 Population (millions)   Population in 2050 (millions) Population in 2100 (millions) 1950 1980 2011 Low Medium High Constant 2,532 4,453 6,974 8,122 9,306 10,614 10,943 6,177 10,125 15,805 26,844 In 2011 - 37% of the worlds population lived in China & India By 2021, India will overtake China as the most populous country in the world

Rapid Urbanization 50% More Energy by 2020 Equals 80 million new urban dwellers a year every year during the transition Over the next 2 generations the equivalent of 1,000 great cities (>5M) will be built-an average of 20 each year Source: National Academies, (2002). Our Common Journey: A Transition Toward Sustainability.

Consuming class going from 1/6th world population to ½ of a larger global population

Resource Extraction Self forming bio films and movements towards ubiquitous bio-based electonrics

Minimum product performance standards and labelling Defra is promoting innovation by encouraging the removal of the least sustainable products from the market.   As required by section 2(h) of Executive Order 13514, agencies shall ensure that 95 percent of applicable new contract actions for products and services advance sustainable acquisition

What Companies Are We Talking About?

FOOD ENERGY INTERMEDIATES BIO-BASED FEEDSTOCKS FINISHED GOODS Human, Animal, Feed INTERMEDIATES Chemicals, Pharmaceuticals, Enzymes ENERGY Fuel, Electricity Transportation (Land, Sea, Air) FINISHED GOODS Apparel, Construction, Paper, Packaging, Electronics, Toys, Auto BIO-BASED FEEDSTOCKS Aquatic & Land Based GLOBAL TRENDS Population, Affluence, World Hungry, Corporate Sustainability Climate, Water Scarcity, Social Justice, Land Use, National Security EXOGENOUS DRIVERS Shifting Resources, Unintended Consequences, Resiliency, Markets SYSTEM FEEDBACKS

Who is going to lead future resource research & development? Microalgae including eukaryotic algae and prokaryotic cyanobacteria are possible game-changers Microalgae, including eukaryotic algae and prokaryotic cyanobacteria have been identified as a potential game changer for the production of biofuels and bio-based products. Statement that a single platinum-rich space rock 500 meters wide contains the equivalent of all the platinum group metals ever mined in human history 8,900 know near Earth Asteroids. A Cal-tech Keck Institute for Space Studies indicated a 500-ton near earth asteroid could be snagged and placed into the moon’s orbit by 2025 at a cost of $2.6B Canadian mining company Nautilus Minerals wants to start mining gold and copper deposits under the Bismarck Sea by 2013 other player is Australia Bluewater Metals Hot springs in the seafloor at high temperaturs reacts with seafloor rocks react chemically and then mixes with colder seawater, pH change and temp. change falls back as a mineral Planetary Mining Companies like Planetary Resources looking at Platinum group & precious metals Deep Sea Mining Microalgae, including eukaryotic algae and prokaryotic cyanobacteria are possible game-changers

A Call for a National Sustainability Computation Center to Support Industry

We can not be competitive just as a Knowledge Economy - rather there are critical feedbacks between knowledge & technology deployment. We need to focus on both as a nation.

Contact Jay.Golden@Duke.edu http://center.sustainability.duke.edu Associate Professor of the Practice for Sustainable Systems Analysis Department of Civil & Environmental Engineering Pratt School of Engineering Division of Earth & Ocean Science Nicholas School of the Environment Duke University http://center.sustainability.duke.edu