Scanning Club

Scanning Club Introduction to foresight scanning Pierre Olivier and Katherine Antal Policy Horizons Canada

Scanning Club What? So what?

3 LEARNING OBJECTIVES Module Scanning Scanning 3 LEARNING OBJECTIVES Theory: Understand why and how to scan in a foresight context Practice: Understand how to post a weak signal and comments on Google Docs

THE HORIZONS FORESIGHT METHOD Scanning 4 THE HORIZONS FORESIGHT METHOD Identify the issue or problem of interest Consider the larger system(s) shaping the issue Prepare a simple domain diagram of what is ”in” or “out” as a guide Allow it to evolve over the study Identify “current assumptions” buried in public dialogue and policy documents Identify key trends people assume are true Summarize key assumptions as a description of the expected future You are here in the Horizons Foresight Method Scan for weak signals of potentially disruptive changes Conduct interviews and facilitate dialogue to understand the system and develop insights Identify key elements or nodes in the system Describe key relationships Use a system map to identify where change could occur and direct further scanning for weak signals as needed Use insights from scanning to identify change drivers shaping the system Do cascade diagrams to see 2nd to 5th order consequences Do cross-impact analysis to explore interaction of drivers Develop scenarios to explore a range of futures Identify potential challenges and discontinuities Test robustness of current assumptions and strategies Explore policy challenges and opportunities Identify credible assumptions and robust strategies Identify key uncertainties, surprises and emerging issues Better understand how the system or issue could evolve

THE PURPOSE OF SCANNING Module Scanning Scanning 3 THE PURPOSE OF SCANNING Thoughtful scanning is the foundation of foresight. Scanning is the process of gathering information from a range of sources to: better understand the system and the factors that may shape it identify weak signals that may lead to significant change build evidence to use at each step in the foresight process

LOOK BEYOND THE EXPECTED FUTURE Organizations need to prepare for the expected future. But many futures are plausible. Scanning for weak signals identifies low probability, high impact events that are often ignored. Foresight explores how they may interact to help us anticipate surprises. Adapted from Original: Charles Taylor, Army War College

Scanning WHAT TO SCAN FOR Weak signal: a sign that a disruptive change could be underway. 1 or 2 incidents or data points indicating that a change could be starting or underway and that it could be significant for the system under study Examples: Co-living and co-working spaces are emerging for digital nomads ‘Intentional families’ as a new model of homeownership Solo living and friends as family Insight: inference that fundamental change is or could be underway; how it could generate structural or system-level change and why it could be significant for the system. Weak signals or expert opinions support the insight Example: Experimentation in communal living could create new cultural codes

CHARACTERISTICS OF USEFUL WEAK SIGNALS AND INSIGHTS Scanning CHARACTERISTICS OF USEFUL WEAK SIGNALS AND INSIGHTS Significant – it could cause significant, disruptive change to occur in the system if it happens. Novel – it is new to the audience or has not been factored into their thinking yet. Plausible – it is possible to describe one or more pathways through which it could change the system. Timely – it is likely to occur within the timeframe of the study.

BUILDING AN INSIGHT

HOW TO SCAN Horizons Method Scanning 10 HOW TO SCAN Interview knowledgeable people, engage in insightful discussions, listen to media (e.g. Ted Talks), read (reports, books, news, social media). Surprise comes from unexpected areas. Scanners should look beyond their system at issues not directly related to their subject. Scanning can be organized into a taxonomy that works for the scanner (e.g. STEEG – social, technological, economic, environmental and governance issues). Horizons Method

WHERE TO SCAN

ROLE OF THE SCANNER Horizons Method 12 12 Scanning 12 12 ROLE OF THE SCANNER Identify and clarify what is changing or new in the system. Distill the key or useful information from primary sources, wherever they may be: Don’t warehouse information or bring dozens of documents to the table. The goal is to be as succinct and strategic as possible. Value is added by extracting the salient points, facts, data sources and graphics to enable others to gather the gist of the source without having to sift through tons of information. Some documents contain many weak signals and insights. Pull out the key ones. Horizons Method

3 REPORTING A WEAK SIGNAL Self-marriage Module Scanning Scanning What? Women around the world from Japan to the U.S. are marrying themselves in ceremonies to celebrate their singledom. As part of a new trend being dubbed “sologamy”, these women, typically in their 30s, are donning white dresses, throwing parties and inviting their friends to witness themselves make vows of love – to themselves. So what? In industrialized countries there is an unprecedented number of single women in their 30s with the freedom to chart their own lives. Self-marriage may be a rebellion against the subtle social stigma that persists regarding single women. It could also be a way to mark a rite of passage into adulthood that in Western societies has traditionally been marked by marriage. As more people choose to live single, ceremonies and rituals to reinforce the legitimacy of this choice may continue to emerge. Sources: Vice - Women who married themselves talk about how it feels BBC News - Japan: 'Solo weddings' for single women I thee dread - Single Women, Please Stop Marrying Yourselves

SCANNING TOOLS AND RESOURCES 14 14 SCANNING TOOLS AND RESOURCES Scanning databases: Shaping Tomorrow, Trend Watching, Fast Company, McKinsey Insights Social media – Twitter, YouTube Major news services – NY Times, Financial Times, The Economist, etc. Tools for organizing and gathering insights: Pearl Trees - http://www.pearltrees.com/ Paperli - http://paper.li/ Flipboard - www.flipboard.com Horizons Method

FORESIGHT HORIZONS METHOD Module Scanning 3 1

3 INFORMATION Policy Horizons Canada Horizons de politiques Canada 16 16 3 Scanning 16 16 INFORMATION Policy Horizons Canada Horizons de politiques Canada www.horizons.gc.ca