LEVERAGING US EXPERIENCE: INDIA’s ENERGY PRODUCTIVITY ROAD MAP By: Sanjay Dube – IIEC, India Ravi Vora – NREL, USA Presented At: THE FUTURE IS NOW INDIA: COP21 to REALITY June 25, 2016

TOPICS Introduction US Energy Productivity Experience Approach Impact Modelling & Benefits Major Economic Sectors & Stakeholders Codes & Standards Strategies Progress to Date India Energy Productivity Roadmap Establish energy baseline Set vision and goals Develop roadmap Capacity building and implementation Conclusions

Introduction Definition National Yardstick: National Economic Sectors Economic Benefit from energy consumed: Indicator of efficiency of energy quality and benefits: National User National Yardstick: EP = Total economic output (GDP)/Total energy consumed National Economic Sectors Transportation Industry Energy Supplies Retail & Commercial Benefit Measures Reducing cost of energy consumed Reducing carbon emissions Improving water conservation

US Energy Productivity Experience

Approach Leadership: Global Alliance for Energy Productivity Key Stakeholders: Independent Commission US Department of Energy /National Labs Industry Associations Modeling Benefits Advocacy, Policies & Regulations Communicating Benefits

Impact Modelling Cost effective and achievable energy efficiencies: Measuring Impacts Economic growth Reducing energy consumption and costs Buildings, Industry, Transportation, Power-Water Nexus Improving competitiveness Financing energy efficiency improvements Enabling policies and incentives Ref: “Accelerate Energy Productivity 2030: Roadmap for American Energy Innovation, Economic Growth & Competitiveness” By US Dept. of Energy, Sept. 2015.

Energy Productivity = GDP/Energy Details 2010 2030 Baseline 2030 Goal Real GDP (Trillions of 2005 dollars) $13.1 $21.1 Depends on chosen productivity strategies Primary Energy  (quads) 95.5 98.9 Energy Productivity ($/MMBtu) 136 214 271

Need ~20 Quads Energy Savings or ~$6T GDP Increase or some Combination to meet the Goal Gap to meet the Goal

GDP Growth faster than Primary Energy Growth – Due to Structural Change & Energy Efficiency

Codes and Standards Building energy codes Building certification systems Appliance and equipment standards Labelling programs Transportation: Fuel economy standards Air quality improvement standards Resource efficiency improvement standards (water, energy, waste in industries) Environmental emissions v/s energy production

Strategies Setting vision and goals “[We] will take action aimed at doubling the economic output per unit of energy consumed in the United States by 2030, relative to 2010 levels.” President Obama, 2013 State of the Union Setting supporting codes and standards Invest throughout the economy to improve energy productivity Energy saving performance contracts Modernize infrastructure Implement supporting policies, incentives and regulations Develop stakeholders’ commitment through communication and education

U.S. Progress To-date 2013 – The Alliance Commission on National Energy Efficiency Policy recommended to adopt the goal of doubling national energy productivity by 2030, from a baseline of 2010. September 2015 – U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) releases “Accelerate Energy Productivity 2030: A Strategic Roadmap for American Energy Innovation, Economic Growth, and Competitiveness. The roadmap is focusing on the following six “Energy Productivity Wedges”: Smart Energy Systems Technologies for Building Energy Productivity Buildings Energy Productivity Financing Smart Manufacturing Transportation » Water Infrastructure

U.S. Progress To-date DOE analyses draws upon the research from Electric Power Research Institute (EPRI) and National Renewable Energy Laboratory (NREL). Other agencies involved are Argonne National Laboratory, American Council for an Energy-Efficient Economy (ACEEE) and the Rockefeller Institute. DOE has projected 24% energy savings by 2030, combined with GDP growth of 3.6 percent relative to the BAU forecast. The initiatives like Global Alliance for Energy Productivity (GAEP) are providing the technical support to both public and private sector agencies.

India’s Proposed Energy Productivity Roadmap by IIEC and NREL By 2030, India will have a GDP of $4 trillion & population 1.5 billion. This will dramatically increase energy demand and result in GHG emissions of 6.5 billion tonnes CO2e (McKinsey & Company). Since most of India’s development has to take place between now and 2030 – it is high time to focus on strategies to increase India’s energy productivity. The India Energy Productivity Roadmap will focus on: 2030 2016 Energy Efficiency Response to Climate Change Energy Market Reform

India’s Economic Growth is Driving its Energy Consumption Source: U.S. Energy Information Administration, International Energy Statistics, and Oxford Economics

India’s Energy Productivity Roadmap The Energy Productivity Roadmap can: Encourage more productive consumer choices through promoting more productive energy services through: Efficient incentives Empowering consumers Helping business compete Promote more productive energy services through Innovation support Competitive modern markets Consumer protections Innovative financing mechanisms Why Energy Productivity Roadmap for India To develop a path to double the energy productivity by 2030 To boost competitiveness and growth To help consumers and businesses manage their energy costs To reduce greenhouse gas emissions To reduce upon the import of fossil fuel.

Conclusion India needs a Roadmap to double its Energy Productivity High time to go beyond the ongoing market transformation with energy efficiency programs. The implementation of Perform, Achieve & Trade (PAT) Scheme by Bureau of Energy Efficiency (BEE) and utility scale energy efficient lighting programs by Energy Efficiency Services Ltd (EESL) show the way India can achieve high energy productivity. The road map will help India overcome key barriers like: Higher dependence on coal production that remains key to the energy mix Higher dependence on imports of oil and gas to meet the growing demand Electricity shortages, which hurt the industrial outputs Energy poverty and inequality of supply.

THANK YOU Sanjay Dube- IIEC, India Mail: sdube@iiec.org Ravi Vora- NREL, USA Mail: Ravi.Transventure@gmail.com