PRESENTATION TO PORTFOLIO COMMITTEE MEETING 13 JUNE 2016 REPORT ON NATIONAL SENIOR CERTIFICATE EXAMINATIONS AND REMODELLING OF ANA PRESENTATION TO PORTFOLIO COMMITTEE MEETING 13 JUNE 2016

PRESENTATION OUTLINE Purpose Consolidated 2016 NSC Examination Results (a) Introduction (b) Scope and Size (c) Consolidated Performance (d) Summary of Gains Update on Possible Merging of Examinations (a) Current Assessment Arrangement (b) Rationale for reconfiguration (c) Proposed Reconfiguration (d) Proposed Implementation Plan Progress and Status on the Remodeling of ANA (a) Lessons from ANA (b) Principles underpinning the new Framework (c) The National Integrated Assessment Framework Conclusion Recommendation 2

PURPOSE To present to the Portfolio Committee meeting a report on: Consolidated 2016 NSC Examination Results. Update on the possible merging of examinations. Progress and status on the remodelling of ANA. 3 3

REPORT ON THE CONSOLIDATED 2016 NATIONAL SENIOR CERTIFICATE EXAMINATION RESULTS 4

INTRODUCTION The 2017 National Senior Certificate (NSC) Supplementary Examination is considered a second sitting of the 2016 NSC examinations. Therefore, a consolidation of the performance in the November 2016 and 2017 Supplementary examinations, provides a complete picture of the performance of the Class of 2016. The supplementary examinations commenced on Wednesday, 22 February 2017 and terminated on Friday, 31 March 2017. The supplementary examinations allows candidates who did not meet the NSC requirements by 1-3 subjects, a second chance. The Supplementary Examinations were successfully administered across all PEDs. 5

INTRODUCTION f) The only disruption to the examinations were the protest actions which resulted in some candidates not writing the examination in one or two papers. g) The supplementary examinations were conducted following the same standard and rigour of the November 2016 NSC examinations h) The normal quality assurance procedures of the DBE and Umalusi were applied to this examination. i) The results were also approved by Umalusi. 6

SCOPE AND SIZE OF 2017 NSC SUPPLEMENTARY EXAMS No. of Candidates enrolled: 124 148 No. of candidates wrote: 76 760 Question Papers: 116 Examination Centres: 6 326 7

NUMBER OF CANDIDATES ENTERED AND WROTE SUPPLEMENTARY EXAMINATION IN 2016 AND 2017   Province Total number of full-time candidates that enrolled and wrote - 2016 Total number of full-time candidates that enrolled and wrote - 2017 Enrolled (E) Wrote (W) Difference (E-W) No. % Eastern Cape 22 725 11 167 11 558 50.9 23 308 8 424 14 884 63.9 Free State 5 152 3 874 1 278 24.8 3 210 1 877 1 333 41.5 Gauteng 12 571 9 758 2 813 22.4 15 862 7 835 8 027 50.6 KwaZulu-Natal 35 272 19 535 15 737 44.6 36 387 22 673 13 714 37.7 Limpopo 17 499 15 476 2 023 11.6 22 931 20 295 2 636 11.5 Mpumalanga 7 113 4 487 2 626 36.9 10 855 8 195 2 660 24.5 North West 4 247 3 357 890 21.0 3 885 2 829 1 056 27.2 Northern Cape 2 946 2 056 30.2 1 755 1 259 496 28.3 Western Cape 8 441 6 114 2 327 27.6 5 955 3 373 2 582 43.4 National 115 966 75 824 40 142 34.6 124 148 76 760 47 388 38.2 8

COMPARISON OF THE NSC NOVEMBER 2016 EXAMINATION RESULTS AND THE COMBINED RESULTS Province November 2016 NSC examinations Combined November 2016 NSC exam and Supplementary 2017 NSC exam No. Wrote No. Achieved % Achieved Combined % - November % (Difference) Eastern Cape 82 902 49 168 59.3 82 913 50 492 60.9 1.6 Free State 26 786 23 629 88.2 26 873 24 123 89.8 Gauteng 103 829 88 381 85.1 104 065 90 269 86.7 KwaZulu-Natal 147 648 98 032 66.4 149 152 101 289 67.9 1.5 Limpopo 101 807 63 595 62.5 101 735 67 334 66.2 3.7 Mpumalanga 54 251 41 801 77.1 54 264 42 681 78.7 North West 32 045 26 448 82.5 32 093 27 350 85.2 2.7 Northern Cape 10 041 7 902 10 203 8 333 81.7 3.0 Western Cape 50 869 43 716 85.9 50 997 44 566 87.4 National 610 178 442 672 72.5 612 295 456 437 74.5 2.0 9

PERCENTAGES ACHIEVED IN NOVEMBER 2016 AND COMBINED 10

COMPARISON OF THE NSC 2015 and 2016 COMBINED RESULTS November 2015 NSC exam combined with the 2016 NSC Supplementary exam November 2016 NSC exam combined with the 2017 NSC Supplementary exam Difference Province No. Combined Achieved % Combined Achieved Eastern Cape 50 621 58 50 492 60.9 2.9 Free State 25 899 83 24 123 89.8 6.8 Gauteng 92 915 85.4 90 269 86.7 1.3 KwaZulu-Natal 101 220 62.1 101 289 67.9 5.8 Limpopo 69 088 67 334 66.2 -1.7 Mpumalanga 43 832 79.6 42 681 78.7 -0.9 North West 27 622 82.9 27 350 85.2 2.3 Northern Cape 8 365 71.8 8 333 81.7 9.9 Western Cape 46 394 85.9 44 566 87.4 1.5 National 465 956 72.1 456 437 74.5 2.4 11

COMPARISON OF THE NSC NOVEMBER 2016 EXAMINATIONS AND COMBINED RESULTS BY QUALIFICATION TYPE Province November Achieved Bachelor Combined Achieved Bachelor November Achieved Diploma Combined Achieved Diploma November Achieved H-Cert Combined Achieved H-Cert November Achieved NSC Combined Achieved NSC Total November Achieved Total Combined Achieved Eastern Cape 15 645 15 740 19 996 20 244 13 520 14 501 5 49 168 50 492 Free State 9 596 9 669 10 244 10 369 3 767 4 062 1 23 629 24 123 Gauteng 37 582 37 908 37 121 37 558 13 615 14 737 88 381 90 269 KwaZulu-Natal 36 139 36 791 39 507 40 347 22 347 24 112 39 98 032 101 289 Limpopo 18 762 18 857 23 544 23 935 21 281 24 531 7 9 63 595 67 334 Mpumalanga 12 420 12 448 18 447 18 618 10 918 11 599 16 41 801 42 681 North West 8 820 8 866 11 177 11 329 6 450 7 154 26 448 27 350 Northern Cape 2 606 2 671 3 278 3 387 2 015 2 273 7 902 8 333 Western Cape 20 804 20 988 16 305 16 451 6 573 7 078 2 43 716 44 566 National 162 374 163 938 179 619 182 238 100 486 110 047 68 73 442 672 456 437

COMPARISON NOVEMBER 2016 AND COMBINED RESULTS BASED ON QUALIFICATION TYPES 13

COMPARISON OF PERFORMANCE IN SELECTED SUBJECTS COMBINED RESULTS (2015 AND 2016) Entered (2016/17) Wrote (2016/17) No. Achieved (2016/17) % Achieved (2016/17) Wrote (2015/16) % Achieved (2015/16) % Difference Accounting 138 039 130 413 89 633 69 140 353 61 8 Afrikaans 1st Additional Language 85 427 84 147 75 754 90 87 200 92 -2 Agricultural Sciences 113 142 107 748 81 631 76 104 166 77 -1 Business Studies 249 296 236 680 174 501 74 248 015 -3 Economics 166 080 156 940 103 450 66 165 244 English First Additional Language 565 760 549 913 533 818 97 544 587 Geography 322 376 305 337 233 900 303 659 History 165 799 158 491 133 579 84 154 575 85 -0 Life Sciences 368 639 350 441 246 165 70 347 780 71 Mathematical Literacy 389 894 364 816 262 797 72 388 227 0.3 Mathematics 285 825 267 260 137 064 51 261 684 50 1.6 Physical Sciences 204 970 193 073 119 878 62 191 711 60 2.6 14

SUMMARY OF GAINS The total number of candidates that achieved the NSC has increased from 442 672 to 456 437, an increase of   13 765 candidates. The total number of candidates that obtained the Higher Certificate has increased from 100 486 to 110 047, an increase of 9 561 candidates. The number of candidates who obtained admission to Diploma studies has increased from 179 619 to 182 238, which is an additional 2 619 candidates. The number of candidates that obtained admission to Bachelor’s studies has increased from 162 374 to 163 938, translating to 1 564 more candidates compared to the November 2015 NSC examination results. 15

POSSIBLE MERGING OF EXAMINATIONS 16

THE CURRENT EXAMINATION ARRANGEMENT We have two types of public examinations offered to FET candidates occurring at 3 time points: November - National Senior Certificate (NSC), March - (NSC – supplementary) June - Senior Certificate (SC). The NSC and the SC are examinations that are administered in parallel. In 2014, the Minister of Basic Education in conjunction with the Minister of Higher Education, approved the review of the Senior Certificate qualification. The SC and the NSC utilise the same curriculum but have different rules of combination. The NSC and the SC qualifications also have different registration criteria given that they cater for different target groups. SC is an adult qualification while the NSC is a school qualification. 17

RATIONALE FOR A RECONFIGURATION The current Supplementary Examination (SE) is not serving its intended purpose. Learners that write the supplementary examination are unable to access admission to Higher Education in the year they write the supplementary examination. Large percentage of “No Shows” and poor performance in the SE. This streamlining of three examination to two examinations will be both cost effective and efficient, especially from a setting, printing and marking perspective. 18

PROPOSED RECONFIGURATION (a) Streamlining of Examination Events Supplementary examination is merged with the June Examination. Three examination opportunities reduced to two. Candidates that should have written the supplementary examination, now write the June examination No candidates are disadvantaged. Candidates retain their SBA and practical marks from the first sitting Remove the validity period attached to SBA. 19

PROPOSED RECONFIGURATION (b) Creating an Open System for NSC and SC Candidates NSC and SC candidates retain their qualification status and will be able to write either the November or June examination. Candidates will be registered on separate systems for the NSC and SC. Both groups of candidates will write the same examination but will be resulted based on their respective qualifications. Designated examination centres will be open to candidates that register to write the SC examination for both sittings Part-time candidates will be limited to subjects without a practical component. 20

DISCONTINUATION OF THE SC Discontinue SC from 2020 b) This will allow all adults with SC credits, three years to complete the SC. Thereafter SC credits will not be recognised. c) NSC will remain the only exit level qualification. d) Remove the validity period attached to NSC subjects. Learners given indefinite period to complete the NSC. e) Part-time learners registering for the for the NSC for the first time, post 2020, provided they are 21 years and older will be exempt from SBA. They will be resulted fully on the examination. f) Part- time candidates may not offer subjects with a practical component, unless they have a practical mark from their full- time enrollment. 21

PROPOSED IMPLEMENTATION Proposal approved in principle by CEM. (b) In the process of obtaining public comment on this proposal. (c) If approved by Minister as policy, planned implementation will be as follows: - first merged June exam and the Supplementary Exams will be in June 2019. - open access to either November or June examination will commence in November 2019. - termination of the of the Senior Certificate exams (2020) 22

UPDATE AND STATUS ON REMODELLING OF ANA 23

INTRODUCTION The introduction and implementation of ANA has been a major strategic intervention in education The assessment has generated a wealth of valuable data that, in turn, has resulted in more focused and evidence-led public & professional engagement on issues of quality in education Typical of any major intervention, the rollout of ANA has raised critical issues and questions for both the sustenance & enhancement of the initiative 24

ISSUES EMANATING FROM ANA There has been concern about the use of a single assessment tool to generate data for different purposes: Scores from diagnostic test data used for monitoring trends (systemic purposes) with no confidential test items. The design of tests should be different and fit for purpose. Annual administration of ANA does not allow sufficient time for interventions based on the ANA results. Administration across every grade is an over-ambitious task. Effective utilisation of the ANA data by teachers and schools has been lacking. 25

ISSUES EMANATING FROM ANA e) Teacher development programmes emanating from ANA have been inadequate f) If ANA is diagnostic, why is it administered at the end of the year? g) Proliferation of standardised and controlled tests across PEDs. h) There were increasing calls for ANA results to be used for promotion of learners. 26

KEY PRINCIPLES The purpose of assessment must determine the assessment design w.r.t.: - instrument design, - administration design; and - the utilisation of the data. b) More emphasis must be placed on strengthening classroom assessment. c) Focus on end of the Phase assessment. d) Adequate lag time must be allowed for remediation. 27

KEY PRINCIPLES e) There must be effective school support in using information from examinations and national assessment. f) There must be capacity building of practioners in teaching, learning and assessment. g) Learner assessment must be linked to contextual factors relating to the conditions of schooling. h) Assessment overload must be avoided. i) National Assessment must be designed in the context of all other forms of assessment in the GET and FET band. 28

Current Assessment Landscape 29

ASSESSMENT PROGRAMMES National Assessment Monitoring: Learning outcomes / Trends Local: ANA Regional: SACMEQ International: TIMSS / PIRLS Exams External: Certification Standards Monitoring NSC Internal: Promotion School Based Exams Common Exams SBA Formal tasks of learning: Summative Informal tasks for learning: Diagnostic 30

ASSESSMENT AND STANDARD SETTING GRADE ASSESSMENT TYPE NATIONAL STANDARD 12 NSC Exam SBA NSC Exams 10 and 11 Internal School Exam Standardised common exams in selected subjects Senior Phase ? Intermediate Phase Foundation Phase 31

Features of The National Integrated Assessment Framework (NIAF) 32

National Integrated Assessment Framework (NIAF) ANA redesign process has culminated in the development of a concept document on the National Integrated Assessment Framework (NIAF) (b) The Model comprises the following three tiers: Systemic Assessment Evaluates the health of the system Administered in Grades 3, 6 and 9 Once every three years, Sample based Summative Assessment All learners in the Grade write an examination Will form part of the end of the year exam Focus on Grade 6 and Grade 9 Diagnostic/Formative Assessment Used by teachers to identify learning gaps Focus on specific content areas Administered and marked by the teacher 33

DESIGN FEATURES Frequency Test format Test development Test Administration Marking process Capture of marks Reporting 34

SYSTEMIC EVALUATION PURPOSE A sample based systemic evaluation (SE) assessment, done periodically to assess the state of the system as a whole, and the validity of policies and practices of the Department. Such a sample based assessment allows for international benchmarking and trend analysis across years, with confidential anchor items and questionnaires that are independently administered. 35

SYSTEMIC EVALUATION FEATURES Frequency: Once every three years, focusing on key competencies at Grades 3, 6 and 9. First cycle could start in 2018. Test format: focus on end of phase outcomes. Test development: Tests items will be confidential. Questionnaires based on policy concerns and contextual factors. Test administration/Marking and Capture: sample based (statistical models); tests are administered, collected, marked and captured preferably by an independent agent. Reporting: National Report (results in context) Provincial Report (results in context). Diagnostic Report. 36

DIAGNOSTIC/FORMATIVE ASSESSMENT Purpose Diagnostic assessments are directed towards the formative needs of the learner. Assessment for Learning Part and parcel of teaching and learning There can be no effective learning, if diagnostic assessment is not part of the teaching process. Identifies learning gaps and leads to remediation. Focus is the classroom and the individual teacher. More about qualitative data rather than quantitative reporting 37

DIAGNOSTIC/FORMATIVE ASSESSMENT FEATURES Frequency: Administered at strategic points in the teaching continuum to establish progress towards the desired outcome. Test development: Test items must be graded to indicate learner level of performance. Test format: Tests may cover a range of topics or single topics; and phase specific (possible difficulty spread: 5% basic; 25% slightly below grade level; 60% at the focus grade; and 10% above grade level) 38

DIAGNOSTIC/FORMATIVE FEATURES Test administration: done by teachers; no time-table. IT platform to support writing and feedback on selected items (e.g. computer/cell- phone App). Marking: at school level Capture: at school level (school administration system). Reporting: Done at school level. Reports given to parents. No aggregation of learner scores beyond school. Areas of weakness/strengths can be consolidated – circuit/district/province. 39

ADVANTAGES It is designed to provide formative information to teachers and parents. Low stakes – administered by teacher when necessary. Reports customised for increased data utilisation at the classroom level: School reports done by teachers could show areas of strength and support. Learners and their parents receive specific information on learning gaps. Qualitative diagnostic reports can be done at district and provincial levels. Digital platforms could facilitate and enable diagnostic reporting. 40

SUMMATIVE ASSESSMENT Purpose Summative assessments will be designed in the form of end-of-year examinations. Will give schools evidence of how well learners handled the curriculum content given during the course of the year. They are used to facilitate promotion and progression across academic years. 41

SUMMATIVE ASSESSMENT FEATURES Frequency: Annual, will replace the end of year examination in specific grades. Commence with Grade 6 in 2019 and Grade 9 will be added in 2020. (Model will be similar to NSC). Test format: content and skills assessed should be curriculum based specific to a grade. Test development: DBE will appoint examination panels in 2017 and 2018. Thereafter, tests will be drawn from item banks. Test administration: done by teachers; tests printed, packed and distributed by PEDs, national standardised timetable. Digitisation option is being explored. Marking: National & provincial marking guideline discussions, marking done at school level (moderation by SMT/district). Capture: at school level (school administration system). Reporting: Annual Report aggregated at all levels of the system (National/PED/District/School). Schools fill in promotion/progression schedules. 42

ADVANTAGES Recorded as a formal assessment task and be included in the final SBA mark for progression and promotion (Grades 6 and 9). Test is part of the current external examination conducted at school. Sets a national standard at a specific grade level. All learners in the specific grade write the test (Universal) Reduced work load on the part of teachers to set a formal assessment task in Mathematics and Languages. Provide Minister with a reliable indicator of how the system is performing at a particular grade level. 43

Proposed Implementation Plan 44

TIMEFRAMES AND ACTIVITIES … YEAR ACTIVITY 2017 Diagnostic Assessment - Develop diagnostic exemplar tests and manuals. - CDs distributed to schools with Diagnostic Test-lets for classroom administration (May-June) 2017. - Electronic version available on DBE website. - ICT Platform (TARMII – Foundation Phase) to be piloted in September 2017. (b) Summative Assessment Conduct a pilot study on test items for Summative Assessment in a sample of schools at Grade 6 and Grade 9 in May 2017. (c) Systemic Evaluation Conduct a pilot study on test items for Systemic Evaluation in a sample of schools in Grades 3, 6 and 9 in October 2017. 45

YEAR ACTIVITY 2018 (a) Diagnostic Assessment - From January 2018, Diagnostic Test-lets generated electronically from the TARMII system and providing support to teachers for classroom administration. - Extension of TARMII to include tests for Intermediate and Senior Phase. (b) Summative Assessment at Grade 6. - Conduct pilot study on system readiness at Grade 6 and Grade 9 for the assessment mark to contribute towards the progression or promotion mark. - The pilot study will include marks upload through the SA-SAMS system. - Pilot study to take place in November 2018. (c) Systemic Evaluation Conduct systemic evaluation main study (first cycle) in the third term of 2018. 46

YEAR ACTIVITY 2019 Diagnostic Assessment TARMII assessment items and diagnostics upgraded. TARMII system web-based application implemented (Jan-March 2019). (b) Summative Assessment at Grade 6. - Conduct Summative Assessment at Grade 6 in November 2019 (Grade 9 added a year later). - Produce a national report on grade specific competencies at Grade 6 (Dec 2019 - Jan 2020) (c) Systemic Evaluation Generate national, district and diagnostic systemic evaluation reports on Grades 3, 6 and 9 (June 2019). 47

Response of Teacher Unions 48

ENGAGEMENT WITH UNIONS Following the impasse between teacher unions and the Department of Basic Education (DBE) in September 2015, all parties agreed that a task team be established to review the current model of ANA. The task team comprised officials from five teacher unions (SADTU, NAPTOSA, SAOU, PEU and NATU) and the DBE. A rich and robust dialogue on the re-design model ensued: Between September 2015 and March 2016, the task team held 4 operational meetings, a 5-day working group session with nominated officials from each teacher union and the DBE, 1 academic seminar with invited academics, and 3 special meetings with two independent facilitators. 49

RESPONSE OF THE UNIONS The systemic evaluation (SE) tier is supported by the Unions. The details of implementing the SE model will be finalised by the end of June 2017. There was principle support for the diagnostic tier, but there were reservations that diagnostic assessment may lead to additional layering of assessment at the classroom level. Summative assessment was not supported, given that it appeared to resemble ANA. Unions also expressed concern about the assessment overload in schools due to common examinations and tests. Unions also opposed to outsourcing of certain assessment functions, relating to specific assessment forms to assessment agencies/institutions Need for greater teacher development relating to assessment. 50

Roundtable on assessment 51

CONSULTATION WITH EXPERTS The task team invited researchers who are experts in the field of national assessments to make presentations and provide inputs on lessons drawn from international perspectives and best practices which provided an important starting point. b) An Assessment Roundtable was hosted in July 2016 where the issues relating to the National Assessment model were presented and discussed in commissions. c) The inputs from the Assessment Roundtable were also incorporated into the proposed Assessment Model 52

Recommendations from Roundtable The purpose of assessment must determine the assessment design. More emphasis must be placed on strengthening classroom assessment. Adequate time must be allowed for remediation. There must be effective school support to use information from examinations and national assessment. There must be capacity building of practitioners in teaching, learning and assessment. Learner assessment must be linked to contextual factors relating to the conditions of schooling 53

Next Steps 54

NEXT STEPS A Curriculum and Assessment Task Team has been established, comprising Teacher Unions, DBE and PED representation. The Task Team has been granted until end July 2017, to resolve the outstanding matters relating to the National Assessment Model. CEM has approved the implementation of the first systemic assessment in 2018. Piloting of the tests will be conducted in 2017. 55

CONCLUSION 56

CONCLUSION The consolidated report on the performance in the 2016 NSC examinations, confirms the upward trajectory that is system is pursuing. The possible merging of the examinations, is in response to making the system more efficient, cost effective and accommodating the needs to learners The vacuum created by the termination of ANA will not be allowed to continue given the lack of national standardised assessment in the GET band. 57

RECOMMENDATION 58

RECOMMENDATION It is recommended that the Portfolio Committee discuss the report on the: Consolidated 2016 NSC Examination Results. Update on the possible merging of examinations. Progress and status on the remodelling of ANA. 59

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