Application of Long Term Records from NOAA’s National Water Level Observation Network NOAA Climate Observation Program 3’rd Annual System Review April 25, 2005 Stephen Gill and Mike Szabados NOAA/ NOS Center for Operational Oceanographic Products and Services

The NOAA National Ocean Service National Water Level Program Center for Operational Oceanographic Products and Services OPERATIONAL STATUS - GLOSS Support - Tsunami program Support APPLICATIONS - IOOS - Impacts of Sea Level Rise and Inundation Mapping - The U.S. Climate Change Science Program - Habitat Restoration - Updates of National Tidal Datum Epochs - Long-term Changes in Tidal Characteristics - Satellite Altimetry Missions - Storm Tide Exceedance Probabilties

THE NWLON PROVIDES FOR GEOPHYSICAL TIME SERIES

Operational Status of NOAA National Ocean Service Tide Stations in Support of GLOSS Activities (http://tidesandcurrents.noaa.gov/) 175 NWLON stations fully operational with long-term sustained operation, documented calibration and vertical control, and routine data quality control and product delivery. 29 NWLON stations on latest official GLOSS list. 54 NWLON stations contribute to JASL Archive (Hourly Heights) maintained by UHSLC 18 NWLON stations identified as critical to sea level trends (1997 Workshop) A special sea level report is being prepared for these stations. Plans are for to have this report completed for the full 62 sea level reference stations NWLON meets or exceeds GLOSS operating requirements. NOAA NGWLMS configurations are used by many countries.

The NOAA National Ocean Service National Water Level Observation Network (NWLON) Operational Status

Planned Additions to the NWLON for Tsunami Warning - Caribbean

Building the National Backbone: A Key Federal Role 7. U.S. Contributions to the Integrated Ocean Observing System (IOOS) Building the National Backbone: A Key Federal Role The national backbone provides the observational density, timeliness and locations sufficient to detect and predict changes in environmental parameters at a national scale. Data from the national backbone can be used at all scales, but most importantly supplies the essential information for national policy formulation National Water Level Observing Network – an example of a Backbone component “End-to-End” Built through local, regional and national partnerships Provides real-time and archival data for a core set of parameters Supplies data to meet national and regional resource management needs (Slide 6, Building the National Backbone) No funding will be sustained without showing integration and the increased value this provides. Congress is putting considerable pressure on Ocean.US and the federal agencies to get a comprehensive plan in place for a national system. The implications are self-evident -continued local earmarks are not guaranteed. In a nutshell, there's no future if we don't work toward a national integrated system.

SEA LEVELS ONLINE WEB PRODUCT Relative Sea Level Trends Monthly Mean Sea Level Anomalies 50-year mean Sea level Trends http://tidesandcurrents.noaa.gov/sltrends/sltrends.shtml

Regional Trends of Relative Mean Sea Level From NOAA Tide Stations

LOWER CHESAPEAKE BAY : Variations In Relative Annual Mean Sea Level - 1927 thru 2000 Linear Trend: +4.2mm/year Mean sea level has risen about 300mm (1 ft.) relative to the land since 1927 Elevation relative to bench mark (meters) Time (years)

VDATUM: TOOL FOR VERTICAL DATUM TRANSFORMATION 3-D Datums Orthometric Datums Tidal Datums NAVD 88, NGVD 29 WGS 84, NAD 83 (86) MSL MHHW,MHW, MTL, MLW, MLLW

North Carolina Sea Level Rise Project Ecological Impacts of Sea Level Change North Carolina Sea Level Rise Project Create a DEM To assess Sea Level Rise NOAA Bathymetry Integrated topo/ Bathy DEM Land Elevations Areas inundated with a 1.0 m SLR

The NOAA National Ocean Service National Water Level Program, Center for Operational Oceanographic Products and Services 6. The U.S. Climate Change Science Program http://www.climatescience.gov/ Question 9.2: What are the current and potential future impacts of global environmental variability and change on human welfare, what factors influence the capacity of human societies to respond to change, and how can resilience be increased and vulnerability reduced? The Deliverable: Elevation maps depicting areas vulnerable to sea level rise and planning maps depicting how state and local governments could respond to sea level rise. The U.S. EPA provides a low resolution topographic product (1-3 meter contours). The project deliverable is to produce a high resolution (< 1.0m) contoured digital elevation product from which to overlay sea level trends suing a NOA North Carolina Sea Level Project as a national template.

CCSP Deliverable Is Executable CCSP Deliverable: Sea Level Rise Director: Chet Koblinsky PM: Michael Szabados As of Dec. 31 Prime Contractors: Performance Parameters G Y Schedule (FY) CCSP Deliverable: Coastal elevations and sensitivity to sea level rise. (Decision-support assessment/synthesis product in 2006) Task Name FY04 FY05 FY06 FY07 Quarter 1 2 3 4 Prospectus Product Scoping Drafts and Reviews Product Release Schedule Approved Est.d Completion Date Variance 03/01/2006 Milestone (Estimated) / Actual NC Pilot Study 06/01/2005 Review of SLR Efforts with EPA and USGS 1/18/2005 Prospectus 10/01/2004draft Task Completion Task Y G Budget/Funding, $K Key Issues/Risks Issues: The CCSP product is desired to be on a national scale. NOAA, EPA and USGS are co-leads. EPA is developing national low resolution maps of coastal vulnerability to sea level rise; however, these maps are of insufficient resolution to be of practical value to local coastal managers for impact studies. EPA and NOAA agree that a national plan with desired resolution will not be a reality by 2005; but pilot studies like North Carolina will be used to develop national template. Final consensus on the scope of CCSP product is pending. Risks: NOAA has not identified resources necessary to begin a national effort at the desired resolution. The CCSP report will be a technical review and not an implemented project. For NC pilot project, NOAA is developing higher resolution, digital elevation base maps of potential inundation, assessments of potential ecosystem and infrastructure impacts, and focused sea level analyses. Final consensus on the scope of the CCSP product is pending between NOAA, EPA, and USGS. A compromise will likely be reached, in that the national focus of the product will be limited to the low resolution maps from EPA. NOAA will provide a case study on North Carolina pilot project to demonstrate the greater potential of higher resolution maps. Activity FY04 FY05 FY06 FY07 FY08 Prospectus Product Scoping 100 Drafts and Reviews 20 Product release CCSP Report 50 CCSP Deliverable Is Executable

Application to Marsh Restoration Qwuloolt Marsh, Ebey Slough Existing Elevations Qwuloolt Marsh, Ebey Slough Marysville, WA Variations in Relative Mean Sea Level – Seattle, WA Here is an example of the Qwuloolt marsh in Marysville, WA. For this project, we worked with the Office of Response and Restoration within NOAA and the Army Corps of Engineers. Here is the sea level curve for Seattle going back to 1900. There is an upward trend of 2.26 mm/yr. We are considering this to be the same sea level trend for the marsh. This spike here represents the 1983 El Nino event. For this project, unlike many restoration projects where there is proactive restoration such as planting, the original hope was to breach the existing levees and let nature take its course. This map shoes the critical elevation contours of the existing site to be 4 ft, 8, ft, & 12 ft all relative to the North American Vertical Datum of 1988 or NAVD88. The 4 ft contour in green represents the marsh surface. The 8 ft contour is blue and there is an existing development to the NW. The 12 ft contour in red represents the existing levees and there is a new development going right up to the east. The MHW datum was computed to be 8.3 ft. So that means that if the levees were breached, the marsh would become a pond and the development in the NW would be flooded. We also estimated the highest tide to be 12.3 ft based on comparisons with Seattle during the ’83 El Nino event. So that means that during such an event, the new development to the east would be flooded. This info was enough for the USACE to determine that levees needed to be raises in these areas in order to protect the neighbors from flooding. A case study in the Guidance Document. Linear trend: +2.26 mm/yr Photo: Qwuloolt Marsh courtesy P. Leon

IDEALIZED CHANGE OF TIDAL DATUM EPOCHS ACTUAL IDEALIZED CHANGE OF TIDAL DATUM EPOCHS 1983-01 EPOCH We need a change in Epoch to keep water levels and in turn depths up to date…. If we had continued on the 41-59 epoch we would be nearly half a foot off or more in certain areas such as Louisiana, Texas, and Alaska

60-78 Epoch 83-01 Epoch MSL= 1.490 MSL= 1.542 Epoch Change 0.051 m MSL Linear Trend Epoch Change 0.051 m

Marine Boundaries in the U.S. Tidal datums, derived from water level measurements, have traditionally been important primarily for navigation and shoreline boundary purposes. For example, water level measurements were needed for charting coastal waters and to fulfill the need to establish a plane of reference, or a datum plane, to which the water level observations and tide prediction tables could be referred. Similarly, soundings taken during hydrographic surveys could also be referred to such a datum. Mean Lower Low Water (MLLW) is NOAA Chart Datum, and Mean High Water (MHW) represents the shoreline on nautical charts (Tidal Datums and Their Applications, 2001). Tidal datums also provide baseline determinations for the Exclusive Economic Zone (EEZ), Territorial Sea and Contiguous Zone, as well as boundaries between private, state, and federal ownership and jurisdiction.

Monitoring of Long-term Changes in Tidal Characteristics Changes in Range of Tide Changes in Time of Tide - HWI

Applications to Research into Global Sea Level Figures 2. Local comparison of hydrographic and tide gauge measured sea level change near (2a) San Francisco & San Diego, (2b) Honolulu, (2c) Balboa: (2a) As in Figure 1, but hydrographic observations limited to 4400 km by 1100 km area adjacent to gauge sites at San Francisco and San Diego; (2b) to 1100 km by 1100 km area centered on gauge site at Honolulu; (2c) to 800 km by 1400 km area adjacent to gauge site at Balboa, Panama. From: Mass and Volume Contributions to 20th Century Global Sea Level Rise Laury Miller and Bruce C. Douglas - Nature

APPLICATIONS TO SATELLITE ALTIMETRY MISSIONS

The NOAA National Ocean Service National Water Level Program, Center for Operational Oceanographic Products and Services 5. Satellite Altimeter Mission Support NOAA has operated a tide station in cooperation with JPL/NASA on Platform Harvest since 1992 in support of TOPEX/Poseidon and Jason-1 providing data for altimeter evaluation and closure analyses. Redundant pressure gauge systems provide independent sea level estimates at the time of every 10-day overpass.

Corsica/Harvest Sea-Surface Height Bias Estimates A Decade of Monitoring TOPEX/POSEIDON and Jason-1 Source – Bruce Haines

Monthly Highest and Lowest Water Levels with 99%, 50%, 10%, and 1% Annual Exceedance Probability Levels

MEAN SEA LEVEL TREND AT BALTIMORE, MARYLAND The mean sea level trend is 3.12 millimeters/year (1.02 feet/century) with a standard error of 0.08 mm/yr based on monthly mean sea level data from 1902 to 1999.

Comparison of Storm Surge at Baltimore Maryland 1933 Hurricane The Two Most Extreme Events 2004 Hurricane Isabel

1933 HURRICANE 2003 HURRICANE ISABEL Comparison of Observed and Predicted Water Levels During Two Most Extreme Hurricanes at Baltimore 1933 HURRICANE 2003 HURRICANE ISABEL

Monthly Highest Observed Water Levels at Baltimore Relative to Highest Water Level Observed During Hurricane Isabel 1933 Hurricane shows lower absolute water level, but when corrected for sea level rise, shows a higher value than 2003 during Hurricane Isabel: Thus, at Baltimore, the 1933 Hurricane actually had a stronger storm surge than Hurricane Isabel even though it was lower in elevation relative to the land due to sea level rise since 1933.

APPLICATIONS ARE MADE POSSIBLE BY OPERATING STANDARDS: Station Operation - sustained long-term O&M - continuous data - documented vertical stability Vertical Datum Reference - up-to-date references to latest tide (and water level) and geodetic datums - water levels are known relative to the land and local bench marks - precise connection to geodetic datums Data Collection, Processing and Data Delivery - data and system quality control on 24x7 basis - real-time data and near-real time data are available with QC flags - monthly and yearly data products are routinely derived and applied - web-based delivery of all data and products - data archival system