Current and Future Iceberg Monitoring, Modeling, and Charting Systems A report from the IICWG Iceberg Subcommittee Gabrielle G. McGrath Commander, USCG International Ice Patrol 6th Session of the Expert Team on Sea Ice Helsinki, Finland 28 February 2017

Presentation Overview Introduction – Connection between users & providers Sample Iceberg Products From Ice services (handout available) Research, Academic, and Industry Organizations Future Activities We need to connect user needs with our products – whole goal of ice services is to meet the needs of mariners Ice Services first, but then others are interested in icebergs as well including research, academic, and industry

Introduction Iceberg Information – Wide range of users with varying needs Current products provide some combination of: Iceberg Locations and Sizes Iceberg Limit Distribution and/or Concentration (density) Drift History Analyst Annotation Tailored Iceberg Outlook

Introduction Iceberg Information Users: Operational Iceberg avoidance – e.g., IIP customers Iceberg managers – e.g., Oil and Gas Industry Iceberg seekers – e.g., Tourists Science and Research Improving detection algorithms, drift and deterioration modeling Assessing the role that icebergs play in understanding climate change Science and Research are supportive of Ice Service operations or industry Again, main goal is are we meeting users needs? Are we addressing the needs of our users?

Arctic and Antarctic Research Institute Spatial Coverage – Iceberg Bulletins Alphabetical order for Northern Hemisphere AARI – ships moving through Northern Sea Route

Arctic and Antarctic Research Institute Northern Sea Route Iceberg Bulletins IA_BCN Code Distance Between Icebergs 5-7 1-7 Nautical Miles 7-9 1 Nautical Mile and less Icebergs Greenland on right, NSR on left. Miles between icebergs Product – Operational, weekly Combined sea ice and iceberg chart Icebergs indicated using WMO symbols with estimated quantity. Region – Northern Sea Route – METAREAs XX & XXI Purpose – Maritime Safety Monitoring – Daily satellite with navigator reports as available Manual detection for routine products Automated CFAR detection with validation from ship navigators Sentinel-1a,b (EW+IW) Radarsat-2 (ScanSAR Wide, Quad Fine), COSMO SkyMed (ScanSAR, HIMAGE) Modeling – None

Arctic and Antarctic Research Institute Northern Sea Route Iceberg Bulletins Product – Operational, weekly Combined sea ice and iceberg chart Icebergs indicated using WMO symbols with estimated quantity. Region – Northern Sea Route – METAREAs XX & XXI Purpose – Maritime Safety Monitoring – Daily satellite with navigator reports as available Manual detection for routine products Automated CFAR detection with validation from ship navigators Sentinel-1a,b (EW+IW) Radarsat-2 (ScanSAR Wide, Quad Fine), COSMO SkyMed (ScanSAR, HIMAGE) Modeling – None

Spatial Coverage - Ice Island Analysis Canadian Ice Service Spatial Coverage - Ice Island Analysis

Canadian Ice Service Ice Island Analysis Photo is from Dr. Luke Copland from University of Ottawa. Format – Non-operational, Monthly Summary of Ice Islands Ice island designators indicating origin Position and approximate areal coverage Key imagery, photos, KML, and analyst notes Region – Baffin Bay, Davis Strait, Labrador Sea Purpose - Public Interest/ Research Monitoring – Satellite: Radarsat-2 (DVWF, SCNA, SCNW others?); Sentinel-1 (EWS); Modis; photos (when available) Modeling - None

Canadian Ice Service Ice Island Summary Format – Non-operational, Monthly Summary of Ice Islands Ice island designators indicating origin Position and approximate areal coverage Key imagery, photos, KML, and analyst notes Region – Baffin Bay, Davis Strait, Labrador Sea Purpose – Public Interest/ Research Monitoring – Satellite: Radarsat-2 (DVWF, SCNA, SCNW); Sentinel-1 (EWS); Modis; photos (when available) Modeling – None

Danish Meteorological Institute Spatial Coverage for Iceberg Products East, West. Cape Farewell

Danish Meteorological Institute “Many icebergs and growlers located across the approaches Ilulissat due to release of icebergs on 30 August 2016 “Ice conditions continue to improve as icebergs drift towards north.” In support of CRYSTAL SERENITY Products/Purpose (Three total) (1) Iceberg Concentration – Monitoring, Climatology (2) Iceberg Reports – Maritime safety (3) Approach outlook (commercial) – Maritime safety (cruise ships primary users) Format/Region NET CDF/ Greenland Waters (soon to be extended to 50N) (2) Plain text, photo/ South Greenland inshore shipping lanes (3) 1 page summary with illustrated graphics/ ice sensitive or hazardous Greenland straits or harbors Monitoring - Aerial (Product (2) only) Helicopter support for ice navigators (South Greenland inshore shipping lanes) Satellite (All Products) with CFAR automated detection Sentinel-1a & b (Interferometric Wide Swath) Other high resolution imagery eg., Cosmo SkyMED when available Modeling - None but expectations for next 24 hours provided for commercial product

Danish Meteorological Institute Products/Purpose (Three total) (1) Iceberg Concentration – Monitoring, Climatology (2) Iceberg Reports – Maritime safety (3) Approach outlook (commercial) – Maritime safety (cruise ships primary users) Format/Region NET CDF/ Greenland Waters (soon to be extended to 50N) (2) Plain text, photo/ South Greenland inshore shipping lanes (3) 1 page summary with illustrated graphics/ ice sensitive or hazardous Greenland straits or harbors Monitoring - Aerial (Product (2) only) Helicopter support for ice navigators (South Greenland inshore shipping lanes) Satellite (All Products) with CFAR automated detection Sentinel-1a & b (Interferometric Wide Swath) Other high resolution imagery eg., Cosmo SkyMED when available Modeling - None but expectations for next 24 hours provided for commercial product

Danish Meteorological Institute Products/Purpose (Three total) (1) Iceberg Concentration – Monitoring, Climatology (2) Iceberg Reports – Maritime safety (3) Approach outlook (commercial) – Maritime safety (cruise ships primary users) Format/Region NET CDF/ Greenland Waters (soon to be extended to 50N) (2) Plain text, photo/ South Greenland inshore shipping lanes (3) 1 page summary with illustrated graphics/ ice sensitive or hazardous Greenland straits or harbors Monitoring – Aerial (Product (2) only) Helicopter support for ice navigators (South Greenland inshore shipping lanes) Satellite (All Products) with CFAR automated detection Sentinel-1a & b (Interferometric Wide Swath) Other high resolution imagery eg., Cosmo SkyMED when available Modeling – None but expectations for next 24 hours provided for commercial product Danish Meteorological Institute (DMI)   Product:  Iceberg concentration product •                          Region:  Greenland Waters will soon be extended down to 50N) •                          Format:  Net CDF •                          Distribution:  Copernicus Marine Environment Monitoring Service Purpose:  Monitoring, climatology Monitoring: Remote Sensing (automated analysis based on Sentinel 1A + 1B) Modeling:  No   Product:  Iceberg reports •                          Region:  South Greenland inshore shipping lanes •                          Format:  plan text, photo •                          Distribution:  dmi.dk, email, facebook, ArcticWeb Purpose:  shipping safety Monitoring: helicopter as platform for ice navigators, high res satellites when available Product:  Approach outlook (commercial) •                          Region:  ice sensitive or hazardous Greenland straits or harbors •                          Format:  1 page summary with illustrated graphics •                          Distribution:  email to ice pilots or captain Purpose:  shipping safety (primary users are cruise ships) Monitoring: high res satellites. Resolution better than 10 m. Modeling:  None (but expectations to coming 24 hours is provided)

North American Ice Service Spatial Coverage

North American Ice Service Daily Iceberg Limit and Distribution Aerial  Satellite Reconnaissance Format – Graphical chart & text bulletin Purpose – Maritime Safety Region – North Atlantic Ocean Monitoring - Aerial USCG HC-130J Canadian Gov’t Provincial Aerospace (contracted by CIS) Satellite (north of 50°N) Radarsat-2 (ScanSAR Narrow, Wide Fine, Extra Fine) Sentinel-1a,b (Interferometric Wide Swath) TerraSAR-X (ScanSAR) and or Cosmo SkyMED when available Modeling - IIP and NAIS models are run twice daily in parallel; IIP model currently used operationally.

North American Ice Service Daily Iceberg Limit and Distribution Format – Graphical chart & text bulletin Purpose – Maritime Safety Region – North Atlantic Ocean Monitoring – - Aerial USCG HC-130J PAL Aerospace (contracted by CIS) Canadian Government, when available - Satellite (north of 50°N) – Imagery analyzed in house Radarsat-2 (ScanSAR Narrow, Wide Fine, Extra Fine) Sentinel-1a,b (Interferometric Wide Swath) TerraSAR-X (ScanSAR) and or Cosmo SkyMED when available Modeling – IIP and NAIS Iceberg Drift and Deterioration Models are run twice daily in parallel; IIP Model currently used operationally.

Norwegian Ice Service Spatial Coverage Svalbard Hopen Met Station Svalbard glacier, Hopen Island Meteorological Station

Norwegian Ice Service Iceberg Alerts First image is Sentinel on the right, image on the right is COSMO Product – Non-operational, as required Iceberg Alerts Iceberg from Austfonna Glacier, Svalbard Key imagery, photos, and analyst notes Region – Svalbard & Barents Sea Purpose – Maritime Safety Monitoring – Satellite with CFAR automated detection: Sentinel-1a,b (EW+IW) Radarsat-2 (ScanSAR Wide, Quad Fine), COSMO SkyMed (ScanSAR, HIMAGE) Some ground monitoring at Hopen Met Station, Svalbard Modeling – None (Prior use of Canadian Hyraulics Centre (CHC) model)

Norwegian Ice Service Iceberg Alerts Product – Non-operational, as required Iceberg Alerts Iceberg from Austfonna Glacier, Svalbard Key imagery, photos, and analyst notes Region – Svalbard & Barents Sea Purpose – Maritime Safety Monitoring – Satellite with CFAR automated detection: Sentinel-1a,b (EW+IW) Radarsat-2 (ScanSAR Wide, Quad Fine), COSMO SkyMed (ScanSAR, HIMAGE) Some ground monitoring at Hopen Met Station, Svalbard Modeling – Currently none (prior use of Canadian Hyraulics Centre (CHC) model), recently acquired NAIS Iceberg Drift and Deterioration Model

Southern Hemisphere

Iceberg Monitoring, Modeling, and Charting Southern Hemisphere Alfred Wegener Institute Antarctic Climate & Ecosystems Cooperative Research Center (ACE CRC) Arctic and Antarctic Research Institute Argentine Naval Hydrographic Service National Ice Center Norwegian Ice Service Overview – organizations who deal with Antarctic ice charting

Argentine Naval Hydrographic Service Spatial Coverage - Weekly Iceberg Chart

Argentine Naval Hydrographic Service Weekly Iceberg Chart B15K Blue polygon is iceberg limit area. Each circle represents an iceberg. B15K is over 10 NM, others are less than 10 NM. Usually only track bergs greater. These bergs were previously greater than 10 and have melted. Currents are black arrows. Product – Operational, weekly iceberg chart with daily METAREA and NAVAREA warnings Depicts icebergs greater than 10 nautical miles with designator indicating origin Includes area of icebergs and ocean currents Region – Scotia Sea centered on South Georgia Island Purpose – Maritime Safety Monitoring – Daily satellite with reports from Argentine Navy and Antarctic stations as available Manual detection only using MODIS Sentinel-1a,b (EW+IW) Radarsat-2 (ScanSAR Wide, Quad Fine), COSMO SkyMed (ScanSAR, HIMAGE) Modeling – None; will begin using NAIS iceberg drift and deterioration models

Argentine Naval Hydrographic Service Weekly Iceberg Chart Product – Operational, weekly iceberg chart with daily METAREA and NAVAREA warnings Depicts icebergs greater than 10 nautical miles with designator indicating origin Includes area of icebergs and ocean currents Region – Scotia Sea centered on South Georgia Island Purpose – Maritime Safety Monitoring – Daily satellite with reports from Argentine Navy and Antarctic stations as available Manual detection only using: MODIS Sentinel-1a,b (EW+IW) Radarsat-2 (ScanSAR Wide, Quad Fine), COSMO SkyMed (ScanSAR, HIMAGE) Modeling – None; will begin to use NAIS Iceberg Drift and Deterioration Model

National Ice Center Antarctic Icebergs 30 September 2016 Iceberg Length (NM) Width (NM) Latitude Longitude Remarks Last Update B15K 16 3 50°31’S 42°22’W Belle 10/7/2016 Product – Operational, weekly table of Antarctic Icebergs with designator indicating origin, location and size information. Depicts icebergs greater than 10 nautical miles and those with areas greater than 20 nm2 with designator indicating origin Information provided as CSV or PDF in tabular format Region – Waters surrounding Antarctica Purpose – Maritime Safety, Public interest Monitoring – Daily satellite with reports from Argentine Navy and Antarctic stations as available Manual detection only using: MODIS Sentinel-1a,b (EW+IW) Radarsat-2 (ScanSAR Wide, Quad Fine), Modeling – None

National Ice Center Antarctic Icebergs Product – Operational, weekly table of Antarctic Icebergs with designator indicating origin, location and size information. Depicts icebergs greater than 10 nautical miles and those with areas greater than 20 nm2 with designator indicating origin Information provided as CSV or PDF in tabular format Region – Waters surrounding Antarctica Purpose – Maritime Safety, Public interest Monitoring – Daily satellite with reports from Argentine Navy and Antarctic stations as available Manual detection only using: MODIS Sentinel-1a,b (EW+IW) Radarsat-2 (ScanSAR Wide, Quad Fine) Modeling – None

Research/Academia Glacial Ice Hazards Working Group Inaugural Meeting June 2015 – Carleton University, Ottawa https://wirl.carleton.ca/GIHWG/ Centre for Arctic Resource Development (CARD) Carleton University C-CORE Memorial University of Newfoundland (St. John’s) National Research Council – Canada Norwegian University of Science and Technology European Space Agency/ Polar View – Polar Thematic Exploitation Platform Princeton University University of Ottawa

Industry Monitoring / Modeling Airbus Defense and Space (Terra SAR-X) e-geos (COSMO Sky-Med) MDA Corporation (Radarsat) Oceans Ltd. ASL Environmental Science Ballicater Consulting Ice Management Amec Foster Wheeler Canatec Fednav Horizon Ice PAL Aerospace Statoil Suncor Logistics

Future Activities Monitoring Expansion of monitoring area in North Atlantic and other areas Use of cloud-based data discovery, processing, and modeling (e.g., Polar Thematic Exploitation Platform) Iceberg Detection Forecasting Iceberg Trajectories

Future Activities Modeling NAIS Iceberg Drift and Deterioration Model validation and improvement Use of modeling techniques to support probabilistic products e.g., ensemble and Monte Carlo simulations Model Validation Using Actual Iceberg Drift

Future Activities Charting Incorporating proposals for portrayal of iceberg information Providing charts in ECDIS format Developing probabilistic products USCG Search and Rescue Optimal Planning System

Questions?