Drought 2012: Impact and Implications for Animal Agriculture John D. Lawrence Iowa State University

Overview History Cattle Hogs, poultry and dairy Implications Response

Forecast

BEEF COWS THAT CALVED, JANUARY 1, 2012, (1000 Head)

Livestock Marketing Information Center Data Source: USDA-NASS

2002 2006

Cattle Summary Poor range and pasture Moving cattle more difficult now Hay supplies short and being used More silage and crop residue Cash flow and equity challenges Shrink an already small herd Excess capacity in feedlots and packers

Forecast

Hog, Poultry, Dairy Summary Driven by corn price Not covering variable cost at times Cash flow and equity challenge Consolidation likely Counter-party risk for growers

Overall Summary Producers search for alternative feeds Herd and flock reduction Poultry and hogs respond quicker Higher prices for consumers Further consolidation of industries Reduced livestock and poultry income

Response Role for Extension Help improve access to feeds Help facilitate emergency response Financial and stress counseling Recognize the drought’s long tail Plan for continued or next drought Plan for life after drought