NROT Values and Tornado Warning Polygon Area

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Presentation transcript:

NROT Values and Tornado Warning Polygon Area Jenn Varian EAS 4480 21 April 2016

Tornado Watch vs. Tornado Warning Tornado Watches are issued by Storm Prediction Center in Norman, OK. BE PREPARED CONDITIONS ARE FAVORABLE Tornado Warnings are issued by local Weather Forecasting Office (WFO). TAKE ACTION SIGHTING ON GROUND OR ON RADAR False Alarm Warning Rate (TOR FAR) ~ 0.73 FFC

Motivation for Study 2011 Joplin Tornado -- Joplin, Missouri 161 fatalities Sirens tested weekly TOR FAR ~ 0.92

NROT and GR2Analyst

NROT Derived from rotational velocity into arbitrary (-5, 5).

NROT Study What sort of things factor into False Alarms? EMOTIONS! Population density, size of warning polygon, FEAR OF A MISS. If there is a larger NROT, does the forecaster tend to make a larger warning polygon to CYA? Is there a correlation between polygon area and NROT?

NROT

Least-Squares Regression Through the Origin

Linear Regression Comparison Least Squares has the least amount of change in slope when introduced to an outlier.

Residual Analysis as a Function of Time Least-Squares is the only one that rejects the null hypothesis. Chi2Value: 21.9266 Chi2Princp.Comp: 5.8036 Chi2LeastSq: 12.0601 Chi2ReducedMA: 1.4045

Resampling -- Jackknife 95% Confidence

Resampling -- Bootstrap 95% Confidence

Periodogram of NROT and Polygon Area 1 year/cycle

Cross-PSD of NROT and Polygon Area Take the frequency at the highest power. Then look at coherence. Frequency = 1

Coherence of NROT and Polygon Area Coherence at 1 is 0.95, so the data is coherent.

References https://s-media-cache-ak0.pinimg.com/736x/79/a4/ac/79a4ac67953d7435590ddcda10b3a1f5.jpg http://esq.h-cdn.co/assets/cm/15/07/54daf60d130bc_-_esq-joplin-tornado-1011-lg-19010429.jpg http://nvlpubs.nist.gov/nistpubs/NCSTAR/NIST.NCSTAR.3.pdf

Questions?