Besa Muwele African Development Bank Review of National Accounts implementation in SADC and COMESA countries Key Findings Besa Muwele African Development Bank

OUTLINE Background Countries covered in the assessment Dimensions for evaluation of National Accounts Methodology for assessment Staffing of National Accounts Recommendations

Background Statistical Business Register SNA 2008 Implementation Training workshops: Development of implementation plans (April 2015 Botswana) Compilation of GDP using commodity flow approach (July 2015 Daresalaam) Construction of Supply and Use tables (February 2016 Harare) Methodological Review of Benchmarking, Rebasing and Chain- linking of Economic Indicators (October 2016 Mauritius Technical Assistance in NADABAS: Swaziland, Zimbabwe, Botswana and Namibia National Accounts Manual (to be published in first quarter 2017) Expert group meeting (2012) Finalization of the guidelines and publication (2013) Generic System currently operational in Mauritius Technical assistance missions conducted in 8 countries mainly in SADC . TA currently going on in Ethiopia Revision of the guidelines to take into account of international guidelines Study tours conducted by countries to Mauritius including Senegal, Swaziland and Zimbabwe

Summary COMESA membership: 19 countries (Non-SADC) COMESA+ report coverage: 14 countries SADC membership: 15 countries Nine (9) COMESA countries covered in this report: Burundi, Comoros, Djibouti, Egypt, Ethiopia, Kenya, Rwanda, Sudan and Uganda. 9 COMESA countries covered in this report. Seven (7) non-COMESA SADC countries: Angola, Botswana, Lesotho, Mozambique, Namibia, South Africa and Tanzania. Eight (8) COMESA countries, which are SADC member states: DR Congo, Madagascar, Malawi, Mauritius, Seychelles, Swaziland, Zambia and Zimbabwe. Eight (8) COMESA countries that are also SADC member states: DR Congo, Madagascar, Malawi, Mauritius, Seychelles, Swaziland, Zambia and Zimbabwe. Two (2) COMESA countries which are not covered in this report due to lack of information: Eritrea and Libya. Four additional African countries that belong neither to COMESA nor SADC: Gambia, Ghana, Liberia, Nigeria and Sierra Leone.

Methodology of Assessment Basic Additional scope of national accounts development in terms of the milestone attained, the minimum requirement dataset (MRDS assesses basic economic data that are needed for the development of national accounts qualitative characteristics of national accounts datasets adherence to the concepts of the SNA2008 provided to the IMF’s on General Dissemination System (GDDS) and Special Data Dissemination Standards (SDDS The information that is used for the milestones assessment is the data submitted to the United Nations’ Statistics Division response to its Annual National Accounts Questionnaire. These data up to 2013 was published in 2014 by the United Nations supplemented by recent national publications that can generally be retrievable on government websites

Three dimensions for evaluation of NA Quality adhered closely to the definitions, concepts, methods of estimation and the classification system of the 1993 SNA a national plan for basic statistics (5-10 cycle of census/register and more frequent data) regular programs to collect annual and monthly basic statistics for national accounts purpose. Timeliness: relevance to decision-makers (up to date quarterly, annually). Comprehensiveness in terms of scope (production, distribution and use of income by for total economy and by sectors, financial accounts and balance sheets).

Three dimensions for evaluation of NA Quality adhered closely to the definitions, concepts, methods of estimation and the classification system of the 1993 SNA a national plan for basic statistics (5-10 cycle of census/register and more frequent data) regular programs to collect annual and monthly basic statistics for national accounts purpose. Timeliness: relevance to decision-makers (up to date quarterly, annually). Comprehensiveness in terms of scope (production, distribution and use of income by for total economy and by sectors, financial accounts and balance sheets).

UN Milestones Milestones Requirement Milestone 1 GDP in current and constant prices by industries and by final expenditure. Milestone 2 Milestone 1 + GNI (=GDP + net factor income from the rest of the world). Milestone 3 Milestone 2 + Value added by institutional sectors + General government sector accounts up to net lending + Rest of the World Accounts (i.e. balance sheet). This means that Gross National Disposable Income (GNDI) is available. Milestone 4 Milestone 3 + All institutional sectors up to net lending. Milestone 5 Milestone 4 + All institutional sectors up to financial accounts.

UN minimum requirement data set (MRDS) Annual accounts Quarterly accounts Milestone 1 and Milestone 2 Employment by industries Accounts of the total economy up to net lending Rest of the world accounts (balance sheet) up to net lending Institutional sector accounts

Evaluation summary of national accounts implementation (1) Areas Number COMESA Countries SADC Countries Annual GDP 16 countries (94%). All countries except Comoros. 15 countries (100%). All countries. Quarterly GDP 7 countries (41%). Egypt, Kenya, Rwanda and 5 SADC countries: Botswana, Mauritius, Mozambique, and Seychelles. 7 countries (47%). Botswana, Mauritius, Mozambique, Namibia, Seychelles, South Africa, and Tanzania. Minimum Requirement Data Set (MRDS) 1countries (6%). Egypt. 1 country (7%) South Africa. Subscription to IMF’s SDDS 2 countries (12%). Egypt and Mauritius. 2 countries (13%). Mauritius and South Africa Milestones Milestone 4: 2 countries (12%). Milestone 0 (1 country): Comoros. Milestone 1 (6 countries): Djibouti, DR Congo, Madagascar, Malawi, Uganda and Zambia. Milestone 2 (6 countries): Burundi, Rwanda, Sudan, Seychelles, Swaziland, and Zimbabwe. Milestone 3 (2 countries): Ethiopia, Kenya. Milestone 4 (2 countries): Egypt, Mauritius. Milestone 4: 2 countries (13%) Milestone 1 (7 countries): Angola, Botswana, DR Congo, Madagascar, Malawi, Zambia and Lesotho. Milestone 2 (5 countries): Namibia, Seychelles, Tanzania, Swaziland, and Zimbabwe. Milestone 3 (1 country): Mozambique. Milestone 4 (2 countries): Mauritius and South Africa.

Evaluation summary of national accounts implementation (2) Areas Number COMESA Countries SADC Countries Supply and use tables 8 countries (47%) Egypt, Kenya, Rwanda, Uganda and 4 SADC countries: Lesotho, Madagascar, Malawi and Mauritius 5 countries (33%) Lesotho, Madagascar, Malawi, Mauritius and South Africa. SNA 2008 4 countries (24%) Egypt (partially), Kenya, Uganda 1 SADC countries: Malawi (partially). 2 countries (13%) Malawi (partially) and South Africa ISIC REV4 9 countries (53%) Egypt, Ethiopia, Kenya, Rwanda and Uganda. 4 SADC countries: Malawi, Mauritius, Mozambique and Seychelles. 4 countries (27%) Malawi, Mauritius, Mozambique and Seychelles.

Basic benchmark data in SADC Census Census of production Alternative to census Administrative data Census of population: All countries implement census of population every 10 years. Census of agriculture: Every 5 years: Swaziland Every 10 years: Botswana, Lesotho, Mauritius. Mozambique, Namibia, South Africa. Ad hoc: Angola, DR Congo, Madagascar, Seychelles, Zambia, Zimbabwe. Business registers of incorporated enterprises (i.e. corporations): Angola, Malawi, Namibia Census survey of agriculture: Tanzania. Seychelles is using financial statements from the Revenue Commission. South Africa (the Reserve Bank) is using administrative data for the financial sector. Economic census Every 5 years: Mauritius, South Africa, Zambia. Informal activities: LFS is carried out Every 5 years: Malawi, Zimbabwe, Zambia Annually, quarterly: Botswana (S/A), Madagascar (A), Mauritius (Q), South Africa (Q) It is unclear how countries estimate annual and quarterly GDP without annual and quarter LFS or even annual household income and expenditure survey. Household income and expenditure survey Every 10 years: Botswana, Namibia, Tanzania. Every 5 years: Malawi, Mauritius, Namibia, Seychelles, South Africa, Swaziland.

Basic benchmark data in COMESA Census Census of production Alternative to census Administrative data Census of population: Except Eritrea and Comoros, other countries implement census of population every 10 years. Eritrea had the last census in 1984, before independence in 1991. Last census in Comoros:2003. Census of agriculture: Every 10 years or more: Egypt, Nigeria, Uganda. Ghana: latest 84/85. One is in planning. Ad hoc or as part of census of population: Burundi, Sierra Leone. Business registers of incorporated enterprises (i.e. corporations): Egypt, Uganda. Census survey of agriculture: None. Egypt: using data from reports on public enterprises. It is unclear that any other country in the group has a deliberate policy to use data on corporation to compile national accounts. Economic census Varying 5 to 10 years: Egypt, Nigeria, Rwanda Updated registers frequently: Uganda Ad hoc and no census: Ghana, Sierra Leone, Burundi, Eritrea, Liberia and Sudan. Informal activities: LFS is carried out Quarterly: Egypt, Nigeria Every 3-5 years: Ethiopia, Uganda, Ghana (part of household survey). Every 10 years: Kenya. Ad hoc: Liberia, Sierra Leone. Household income and expenditure survey Bi-annually: Nigeria. Every 5 years: Egypt, Ethiopia, Rwanda, Uganda, Sierra Leone. Ad hoc: Burundi, Ghana, Kenya.

Staffing on National accounts in SADC and COMESA

Minimum professional personnel for National Accounts Chief 1 SUT, annual & quarterly national accounts balancing including estimation of GCF, price indexes for nonmarket services 2 Nonfinancial sector/activities Financial activities (banks, insurance, other financial services) Government sector (transforming government finance statistics to SNA and estimating quarter and annual data) Foreign trade (transforming trade statistics, BOP to SNA data) 0.5 Informal activities Household activities, final consumption 1-2 Total 9-10

Recommendations for improving National Accounts National strategy on improvement of economic statistics and National Accounts A 5-year cycle construction of benchmark national accounts such as the supply and use table and institutional sector accounts For formal enterprises: a 5 year cycle economic census for the incorporated enterprises may be replaced by a thoroughly updated register of business every 5 years and also updated yearly the economic census should be followed by a detailed survey to cover all large corporations and a sample of medium and small enterprises to obtain information for the construction of the Supply and use tables and the full sequence of accounts for the financial and non-financial sectors.

Recommendations for improving National Accounts For informal enterprises/activities, employment in the informal sector may be used to estimate this sector on the basis of every 5 year survey of the informal units identified in the population census and then by household survey. For administrative data: it is necessary to produce foreign trade statistics, balance of payments, government finance statistics, banking and insurance statistics at least quarterly, but preferably monthly.

Recommendations for improving National Accounts Monthly, quarterly surveys requesting very limited information (sales/revenues, compensation of employees and employment only) to estimate main national accounts aggregates such as quarterly GDP by extrapolating from the benchmark ratios. More elaborate annual economic survey may be needed to affirm the quarterly data. Proto-type questionnaire for the benchmark, annual, quarterly/monthly be developed so as to incorporate all information necessary for the implementation of SNA2008 and the compilation of institutional sector accounts.

Thank You