The Impact of African Science: A Bibliometric Analysis Scientometrics 102(2): 1241-1268 (2015) Hugo Confraria and Manuel Mira Godinho (MERIT-UNU and ISEG, University of Lisbon)

Motivation Plenty of bibliometric studies carried out for the developed countries and for the emerging economies (China etc.) …BUT… Until a couple of years ago no up-to-date bibliometric studies for Africa Is it acceptable / suitable to carry out such analysis for Africa? Declaration stemming from the 2003 African Ministerial Conference on Science and Technology commits to: “develop and adopt common sets of indicators to benchmark our national and regional systems of innovation” (NEPAD, 2003).

Implicit questions How much should Africa invest in science? (trade-off…) How (and where) to invest in science? Objective: not to provide direct answers, but systematic data and analysis

Previous Studies Science in the continent  dismal state (Hassan, 2002). Little scientific co-authorship found between African countries (Narvaez-Berthelemot et al., 2002). Research production in Africa  highly skewed across nations and disciplinary areas (Uthman et al., 2007). Some fields of science (e.g. health sciences) are internationally oriented and tend to attract more international funds, partnerships, and opportunities to publish in international journals (Tjissen, 2007). Output sensitive to political instabilities, being the impact higher when the scientific communities are small (Waast et al., 2010).

Methodology - Databases Analysis of publications in WEB of Science Journals indexed by: Science Citation Index Expanded (SCI-EXPANDED); Social Sciences Citation Index (SSCI); Arts & Humanities Citation Index (A&HCI) The use of these DBs allows for easy international comparison Data covers 53 African countries, 2002 to 2011.

Scientific productivity Specialization indexes Methodology – Metrics Analysis Indicator Scientific productivity research output / GDP research output / population Specialization indexes RSI “Revealed Scientific Advantage Index” “Chi-square of sectoral specialization” Scientific Impact “Impact relative to subject area” Collaboration Network Analysis TOP10 countries that have more collaborations with each of the 13 African countries Regression WoS Pubs (02-11) X PCT Apps (02-11)

Research articles output: Africa vs. global trends, 1981-2011 Northern Africa Southern Africa Central Africa

Research output of top 17 countries (>1%) countries Remaining 36

Top 25 African Universities (2002-2011) %

Research performance relative to GDP and population, 2002-2011 “Productivity” Research performance relative to GDP and population, 2002-2011

“Productivity” Research performance relative to GDP and population, 2002-2011 Northern Africa Central Africa Southern Africa Africa WORLD 50% 59% 12% 21%

Top 5 African countries in 22 main fields 2007-2011

Relative Specialization Intensity (Rank) Top 5 subject areas, in African nations with more than 500 publications (2007-2011), ranked by RSI COUNTRY Relative Specialization Intensity (Rank) SII 1 2 3 4 5 SOUTH AFRICA Plant & Animal Science Environment/Ecology Social Sciences Immunology Space Science 0.36 2.57 2.27 2.05 1.95 1.92 EGYPT Pharmacology & Toxicology Materials Science Chemistry Agricultural Sciences Engineering 0.24 2.09 1.66 1.65 1.58 1.41 TUNISIA Mathematics Microbiology Biology & Biochemistry 0.26 2.45 1.62 1.32 NIGERIA 0.72 4.90 2.52 2.44 1.85 1.81 ALGERIA Physics 0.82 2.47 2.40 1.67 MOROCCO Geosciences 0.34 3.19 1.91 1.47 1.33 1.21 KENYA 1.26 5.18 4.23 3.90 3.06 2.46 UGANDA 8.24 3.11 2.34 2.33 2.17 TANZANIA 0.98 3.95 3.49 2.68 2.02 CAMEROON 0.44 3.41 2.67 2.42 2.30 2.18 ETHIOPIA 1.18 4.27 3.60 2.51 2.15 GHANA 0.99 5.22 3.64 3.13 2.49 2.32 SENEGAL 0.63 2.88 3.33 3.17 1.90 1.88 MALAWI Clinical Medicine 1.30 5.13 2.56 2.53 2.26 1.70 ZIMBABWE 1.20 4.53 3.91 3.66 2.29 SUDAN 0.96 4.91 3.65 3.30 1.44 BURKINA FASO 0.91 3.38 3.00 2.19 COTE IVOIRE 0.77 3.82 3.79 3.78 2.60 1.82 BOTSWANA 0.97 3.56 3.42 3.15 2.96 2.20 BENIN Environment/ Ecology 1.86 6.59 4.56 1.87 1.61 1.10 ZAMBIA 1.52 5.74 4.78 2.38 MADAGASCAR 2.04 5.64 5.33 3.09 1.63 LIBYA 2.14 1.54 MALI 1.27 4.60 3.81 3.34 2.25 MOZAMBIQUE 1.12 4.82 2.37 2.22

Relative Specialization Intensity 1 2 3 4 5 SOUTH AFRICA Plant & Animal Science Environment/Ecology Social Sciences Immunology Space Science 2.57 2.27 2.05 1.95 1.92 EGYPT Pharmacology & Toxicology Materials Science Chemistry Agricultural Sciences Engineering 2.09 1.66 1.65 1.58 1.41 TUNISIA Mathematics Microbiology Biology & Biochemistry 2.45 1.62 1.32 NIGERIA 4.90 2.52 2.44 1.85 1.81 ALGERIA Physics 2.47 2.40 1.67 MOROCCO Geosciences 3.19 1.91 1.47 1.33 1.21 KENYA 5.18 4.23 3.90 3.06 2.46 UGANDA 8.24 3.11 2.34 2.33 2.17 TANZANIA 3.95 3.49 2.68 2.02 CAMEROON 3.41 2.67 2.42 2.30 2.18 ETHIOPIA 4.27 3.60 2.51 2.15 GHANA 5.22 3.64 3.13 2.49 2.32 SENEGAL 2.88 3.33 3.17 1.90 1.88 MALAWI Clinical Medicine 5.13 2.56 2.53 2.26 1.70 ZIMBABWE 4.53 3.91 3.66 2.29 SUDAN 4.91 3.65 3.30 1.44 BURKINA FASO 3.38 3.00 2.19 COTE IVOIRE 3.82 3.79 3.78 2.60 1.82 BOTSWANA 3.56 3.42 3.15 2.96 2.20 BENIN Environment/ Ecology 6.59 4.56 1.87 1.61 1.10 ZAMBIA 5.74 4.78 2.38 MADAGASCAR 5.64 5.33 3.09 1.63 LIBYA 2.14 1.54 MALI 4.60 3.81 3.34 2.25 MOZAMBIQUE 4.82 2.37 2.22

All subject areas: Output vs. CXC (Impact), 2007-2011 world

Collaboration Network of the TOP 13 2007 and 2011

Scientific Impact versus Collaboration Intensity (2007-2011)

Log publications vs. log PCT applications (per 10^6 population, 2002-201)

Main Conclusions Take off from 2004 (2011 2.51% WoS) SA + Egypt + Nigeria + Tunisia driving output increase SA + Egypt > 50 % and top10 countries about 85% However smaller countries growing faster Docs/GDP – On world average Docs/POP – Much below world average Specialization mainly in Agricultural Sciences (+ Related areas: Environmental & Ecology and Plant & Animal Sciences) and some specific health sciences (Immunology, Microbiology)

Main Conclusions “Academic impact” Impact rising from 2002 to 2011 Impact of Mozambique, Zambia, Mali, Tanzania, Uganda, Malawi, Kenya > World average + IMPACT > Small scientific communities > High levels of specialization in few scientific disciplines > High levels of international collaboration > English language “Practical impact” PCT patents share below scientific share and declining Non linear dynamics between publication and patenting Science mainly related with education (capability building)