Integrated Dynamic Travel Models: Recent SHRP2 Projects Scott Smith TRB National Transportation Planning Applications Conference 15 May 2017

Agenda Why integrated models? Some history Where we are today

Integrated Models (SHRP2 C04 and C10) Challenge Traditional four-step transportation planning models deal with average conditions and treat travel as a series of sequential decisions. As such, they have difficulty addressing a number of areas including: Travel time reliability Variable road pricing, ramp metering, reversible lanes, variable speed limits, and other dynamic transportation management strategies Other policies affecting travel scheduling Consideration of trip chains and joint trip making within households Florida DOT

Dynamic Traffic and Transit Assignment History (2009 – 2013) Models that can link travel behavior choices, such as departure time or route, with congested network conditions at a scale that can represent real-world dynamics C10A DaySim / TRANSIMS linkage Burlington, Vermont; Jacksonville and Tampa, Florida C10B SACSIM / DaySim / DynusT / FAST-TrIPS Sacramento, California Presented at Planning Applications Conference in 2013 (Columbus) and elsewhere Activity-Based Model Dynamic Traffic and Transit Assignment

Integrated model system C10A, C10B Lessons Learned Integrated model system is feasible is more sensitive to a wider range of policies produces a wider range of statistics of interest to decision-makers Conceptual, integration and convergence issues with reconciling different types of models Software was still immature C10B inclusion of transit was ambitious

FHWA Exploratory Advanced Research (EAR) Program Agent-Based Modeling in Transportation 2010 Workshop 2013 Primer for Agent-Based Simulation and Modeling in Transportation Applications Virginia Tech Driver Behavior in Traffic project Arizona VASTO project Maryland project Apply agent-based modeling to mode and departure time choice, pre-trip route choice, en-route diversion Traveler Agents - Search Information Learning Knowledge Behavioral User Equilibrium Application of Technology Readiness Levels to Highway Projects

Technology Readiness Levels  Phase TRL Description Basic Research 1 Basic principles and research 2 Application formulated 3 Proof of concept Applied Research 4 Components validated in laboratory environment 5 Integrated components demonstrated in a laboratory environment Development 6 Prototype demonstrated in relevant environment 7 Prototype demonstrated in operational environment 8 Technology proven in operational environment Implementation 9 Technology refined and adopted Assess technology maturity on a 1-9 scale Ask two key questions How complete was the technology when it was tested? How representative was the test environment? https://www.fhwa.dot.gov/advancedresearch/trl_h.cfm

SHRP2 Implementation Assistance, Round 4 (2014) Jointly funded by the State DOTs Competitive process managed by FHWA, AASHTO, TRB Support evaluation and implementation of SHRP2 products SHRP2 TravelWorks Rapid Policy Assessment Tool (C16) Improving our Understanding of How Highway Congestion and Price Affect Travel Demand (C04) Partnership to Develop an Integrated, Advanced Travel Demand Model and a Fine-Grained, Time-Sensitive Network (C10) For more information: https://planningtools.transportation.org/10/travelworks.html

C04 and C10: late 2014 to present MTC, SFCTA, PSRC Dynamic Transit Passenger Assignment with Fast-Trips (C10) Maryland ABM and AgBMS Integration with DTALite (C10) Ohio DOT CT-RAMP – DynusT (C10) Dynamic transit passenger assignment on a large, capacity-constrained transit network Deep integration of ABM and DTA Scalable integration of DTA with both activity and agent based models SANDAG (C04) ARC CT-RAMP – DynusT (C10) Pricing and Travel Time Reliability Enhancements in the SANDAG ABM

Further information San Diego Pricing and Travel Time Reliability Enhancements in the SANDAG ABM (C04) Report posted on tfresource.org TMIP webinar took place on January 18 (www.tmip.org) San Francisco and Seattle Fast-Trips See fast-trips.mtc.ca.gov TMIP webinar planned for May 24, 2pm ET Ohio and Atlanta CT-RAMP – DynusT integration TMIP webinars on April 5 and June 7 Maryland ABM and AgBM – DTALite integration See http://www.mitams.org TMIP webinar took place on March 15

Thank you Scott Smith Volpe Center, US DOT scott.smith at dot.gov 617.494.2588 Brian Gardner FHWA Office of Planning brian.gardner at dot.gov 202.366.4061