Local Elections in England, Scotland and Wales 2017 PSA Media Briefing - 25 April 2017 Colin Rallings & Michael Thrasher (Plymouth University) John Curtice (University of Strathclyde) Roger Scully (Cardiff University) Chair: Professor Angelia Wilson (University of Manchester) Chair of the Political Studies Association #PSAMedia

Local Elections - England Professor Colin Rallings Professor Michael Thrasher crallings@plymouth.ac.uk mthrasher@plymouth.ac.uk 01752 585 840 01752 585 826 The Elections Centre Plymouth University www.electionscentre.co.uk

By-election model: Jan 2015 – April 2017 Labour overall track is downwards Conservative track rising Liberal Democrats – re-establishing a local govt. presence UKIP support declining?

Party contestation in by-elections since 2009 Erosion of Lib Dem local base shown in reduced by-election contestation but now growing UKIP experienced a dramatic rise that might be reducing Green contestation growing

Poll of polls: January 2015 – April 2017 Polling data kindly supplied by Professor Will Jennings, University of Southampton. Weighted moving quarterly averages.

Conservative support in by-elections & polls

Labour support in by-elections & polls

Lib Dem support in by-elections & polls

UKIP support in by-elections & polls

Prospects for 2017

Political control in councils up in 2017 Lab LD NOC County councils 15 1 - 11 Unitary councils 2 3 Doncaster Total 17 14

* allowing for boundary changes but not by-elections Seats up in 2017* Con Lab LD Green UKIP Ind/Oth County councils 927 375 245 19 134 87 Unitary councils 177 149 96 1 9 Doncaster 8 41 - 2 4 Total 1,112 565 341 20 145 187 * allowing for boundary changes but not by-elections

National Equivalent Vote ‘forecast’ 2017 35 (43) 29 (25) 21 (11) 8 (11) Figures in brackets are polling averages for April 2017

Change on 2013 +9 - +8 -14 -3 % 26 29 13 22 10 35 21 8 7 Con Lab LD UKIP Ind/Oth % 2013 National Equivalent Vote 26 29 13 22 10 2017 by-election model ‘forecast’ 35 21 8 7 Change 2013-17 +9 - +8 -14 -3

Previous results (27 comparable counties only) Con Lab LD UKIP Ind/Oth 2005 1007 447 360 - 43 2009 1251 148 346 8 95 2013 927 375 245 134 106

Possible 2017 seat changes (England) Con Lab LD UKIP +115 -75 +85 -105

Possible council change 2017 Cornwall LD ex NOC Derbyshire NOC ex Lab Lancashire Lab ex NOC Norfolk Con ex NOC Somerset NOC ex Con

‘Metro-mayors’ elections Inaugural cycle Elected using Supplementary Vote 6 areas - Cambridgeshire and Peterborough; Greater Manchester; Liverpool City Region; Tees Valley; West Midlands; West of England + directly ‘re-elected ‘ mayors in Doncaster (Lab) and North Tyneside (Lab)

Likely outcomes Cambridgeshire & P’boro Con Greater Manchester Lab Liverpool City region Tees Valley West Midlands Lab (?Con after 2nd vote) West of England Con (??LD after 2nd vote)

Conservative landslides Conservative majority in 1983 – 144 seats; in 1987 – 101 seats

Local Elections - Scotland Professor John Curtice University of Strathclyde @whatscotsthink whatscotsthink.org j.curtice@strath.ac.uk 07710 348 755

The System Single Transferable Vote in three and four member wards Surplus votes and votes of bottom candidates redistributed in accordance with second and subsequent preferences until enough reach the quota for election (votes/(seats+1)+4 Approximately proportional system but with high de facto threshold; 20% or 25% in a ward Parties can nominate more than 1 candidate while voters can interleave candidates from different parties in their order of preference.

The Outcome in 2012 % votes Seats Council Control Conservatives 13.3 115 Labour 31.4 394 4 Liberal Democrats 6.6 71 SNP 32.3 425 2 Greens 2.3 14 Independents 12.1 200 3 Others 1.9 TURNOUT 39.1 Labour subsequently gained control of South Lanarkshire via local by-elections

2012: An Exceptional Election?

Political Backdrop Conservatives take second place in 2016 Holyrood election Scotland votes to Remain in the EU UK and Scottish Governments fundamentally disagree about shape of Brexit Sturgeon calls for #indyref2 in late 2018/early 2019 May calls UK general election!

Little Change in Opinion on Independence Source: whatscotlandthinks.org

Aggregate Effect of Boundary Changes (25/32 councils) Source: Prof. David Denver, Lancaster University

Within Council Impact Labour would not have won control of West Dunbarton Labour would have not had the position of sole largest position it enjoyed on 5 councils, including Edinburgh

Candidate Numbers Total Change since 2012 Conservatives 380 +18 Labour 453 -44 Liberal Democrats 247 n/c SNP 627 +14 Greens 218 +132 Independents 499 Others 148 -78 ALL 2,572 +76

Points To Note Labour only fighting half of seats in South Lanarks. Every Labour candidate needs to win in Glasgow, Renfrewshire and West Dunbarton to retain control Conservatives only fighting half of seats in South Ayrshire Independents guaranteed to retain control of three island councils

Two Polls of Local Vote Intention

Local By-Election Record Based on all local by-elections fought by Con, Lab and SNP in 2012 and in local by-election

SNP Targets Control: Largest Party: Clackmannan E. Ayrshire Midlothian N. Ayrshire Renfrew Stirling W. Lothian Largest Party: Aberdeen East Dunbartonshire East Lothian Edinburgh Falkirk Fife Glasgow Moray North Lanarkshire West Dunbartonshire

Local Elections - Wales Professor Roger Scully Cardiff University ScullyRM@cardiff.ac.uk 07738 294226 

Wales 22 Local Authorities Last elections 2012 (2013 in Ynys Mon) 2012 results very good for Labour

2012/13 Results - Wales Party Councillors Won Authorities won Labour 580 (+235) 10 (+8) Plaid Cymru 170 (-35) Conservative 105 (-69) 0 (-2) Lib-Dems 73 (-93) Independents 337 (-39) 2 (-1) Others 18 (-10)

Number of candidates by party, 2017 N of Candidates (change on 2012/13) Labour 940 (+94) Independents 767 (+21) Conservatives 627 (+59) Plaid Cymru 579 (+49) Lib-Dems 281 (-55) UKIP 80 (+67) Greens 78 (+10) Others 132 (+3)

New Poll on Local Voting Intentions, Wales (change on 2012 poll) Labour: 28% (-20) Conservative: 26% (+9) Plaid Cymru: 19% (+2) UKIP: 8% (n/a) Lib-Dems: 7% (-1) Others: 12% (n/a)

The Parties: Labour Exceptional performance in 2012 Already expectations of losses pre-snap election Councils to watch: Cardiff Swansea Newport

The Parties: Conservatives Poor performance in 2012 (two months after ‘omni-shambles’ budget) General context transformed by snap general election Councils to watch: Monmouthshire Vale of Glamorgan

The Parties: Plaid Cymru Held up best of opposition parties against Labour tide in 2012 Largely flat-lining in polls in recent months Councils to watch: Gwynedd Ynys Mon

The Parties: Liberal Democrats Lost over 50% of seats defending in 2012 Little recent progress in Welsh polls, after very poor results in 2014/15/16 Councils to watch: Cardiff Ceredigion Powys

PSA Media stefanie.mair@psa.ac.uk | 0207 321 2545 | @PolStudiesAssoc Professor Michael Thrasher (University of Plymouth) mthrasher@plymouth.ac.uk | 01752 585 826 Professor Colin Rallings (University of Plymouth) crallings@plymouth.ac.uk | 01752 585 840 Professor John Curtice (University of Strathclyde) @whatscotsthink | whatscotsthink.org j.curtice@strath.ac.uk | 07710 348 755 Professor Roger Scully (Cardiff University) ScullyRM@cardiff.ac.uk | 07739 294226 PSA Media stefanie.mair@psa.ac.uk | 0207 321 2545 | @PolStudiesAssoc