Chemistry-Climate Model Validation Activity for SPARC (CCMVal) Veronika Eyring (DLR), Ted Shepherd (Univ. Toronto), Darryn Waugh (JHU), Andrew Gettelman (NCAR), and Steven Pawson (NASA) 17th Session of the WCRP SPARC Scientific Steering Group Kyoto, Japan, 26-30 October 2009

Chemistry-Climate Model Validation Activity (CCMVal) GOAL: Improve understanding of CCMs through process-oriented evaluation and provide reliable projections of stratospheric ozone and its impact on climate

Motivation CCMVal-1 simulations

CCMVal approach to CCM Evaluation and analysis Process-oriented CCM evaluation CCMVal Evaluation Table Eyring et al., BAMS, 2005

History 1st CCMVal workshop, Grainau, Germany, 2003: Core processes and a set of standard diagnostics defined. 2nd CCMVal workshop, NCAR, USA, 2005: The set of standard diagnostics was further refined. Common reference simulations and CCMVal-1 data requests agreed. => CCMVal-1 Simulations Results used in support of 2006 WMO/UNEP Ozone Assessment and IPCC AR4. 3rd CCMVal workshop, Leeds, UK, 2007: Planning of CCMVal-2 and SPARC CCMVal Report. Breakout Group I: CCMVal-2 Simulations in support of WMO 2010 & IPCC AR5 Breakout Group II: CCMVal Diagnostic Tools, Data Archiving and Data Formats Breakout Group III: Define a Strategy for Developing Standards for CCMVal Performance Breakout Group IV: SPARC CCMVal Report 4th CCMVal workshop, Toronto, Canada, 2009. Planning of CCMVal-2 and SPARC CCMVal Report

CCMVal-1 (in support of WMO/UNEP 2007 and AR4) 13 CCMs participated in the first round of CCMVal (CCMVal-1). Output collected in the central CCMVal database at the British Atmospheric Data Centre (BADC). Evaluation diagnostics obtained from various observational datasets. Results have been used to support the 2006 WMO/UNEP Scientific Assessment of Ozone Depletion and IPCC AR4. Currently around 60 CCMVal Collaborators working with CCMVal output Several CCMVal-1 papers published, submitted or in preparation. Multi-model evaluation focusing mainly on transport & dynamics has been performed (e.g. large differences in inorganic chlorine). Demonstrated the advantage of a multi-model evaluation strategy.

SPARC CCMVal Report: Rationale In the past there has been insufficient time to evaluate CCM performance thoroughly while preparing the Ozone Assessments. The goal of the SPARC CCMVal report is to (A) provide useful and timely information for the WMO/UNEP 2010 and IPCC AR5. (B) provide an up-to-date evaluation of the ability of CCMs to represent the stratospheric ozone layer, stratospheric climate and climate variability, and the coupled ozone-climate response to natural and anthropogenic forcings. This comprehensive evaluation and analysis improves our understanding of the strengths and weaknesses of CCMs and thus increases their integrity and credibility. improves our understanding of the causes of past ozone changes. allows a reassessment of the projections of ozone and UV radiation through the 21st century. leads to a more detailed understanding of the impact of stratospheric changes on tropospheric climate.

SPARC CCMVal Report on Evaluation of CCMs Timeline February 2007 Lead authors established 15 September 2007 Chapter outlines finalized   15 July 2008 Updates on chapters (Zeroth Order Draft) 31 August 2008 Lead Author meeting coupled to SPARC GA (Bologna, Italy)    30 April 2009 First Order Draft for internal review 20 May 2009 Comments back 1-5 June 2009 CCMVal 2009 Meeting, University of Toronto, Canada 1 August 2009 Second Order Drafts from all chapters sent to Steering Committee 15 September 2009 Second Order Draft sent to external / internal review 15 October 2009 Reviewer comments back 9-11 Nov 2009 Final review Meeting (Toledo, Spain)   15 December 2009 Report revised   Jan-Mar 2010 Report published

SPARC CCMVal Report on Evaluation of CCMs 18 CCMs participate in CCMVal-2 Structure and Authors (around 100 authors are analyzing the CCMVal-2 data): Executive Summary {Eyring, Shepherd, Waugh plus chapter Lead Authors, finalized at the Review Meeting in Toledo, Spain, Nov 2009} Chapter 1: Introduction {Eyring, Shepherd, Waugh} Part A: Chapter 2: Chemistry Climate Models and Scenarios {Giorgetta, Shibata} Part B: Process evaluation Chapter 3: Radiation {Fomichev, Forster} Chapter 4: Dynamics {Butchart, Charlton} Chapter 5: Transport {Neu, Strahan} Chapter 6: Chemistry and microphysics {Chipperfield, Kinnison} Chapter 7: UTLS {Gettelman, Hegglin} Part C: Chemistry-Climate Coupling Chapter 8: Natural Variability {Manzini, Matthes} Chapter 9: Long-term Projection of Stratospheric Ozone {Austin, Scinocca} Chapter 10: Effect of the Stratosphere on Climate {Baldwin, Gillett}

Discussion items for the SPARC SSG SPARC CCMVal Report Length SOD: 500-600 pages Number of figures SOD: around 100-150; most color Special JGR Issue on (submission 1 October - 30 November 2009) to be ready in time for citation in WMO 2010 Formats Publication Distribution Executive Summary will be published in the SPARC Newsletter Announcements (e.g. on SPARC and WCRP website) Distribution per mail? Appendix and/or Online Supplements Beyond the CCMVal SPARC Report: Further analysis on sensitivity simulations planned for WMO 2010 Encourage a SPARC Data Initiative (contact and information point) Collaboration with tropospheric & Earth System modelers (AC&C, C4MIP, CMIP)