Parents, local house prices and leaving home in Britain Sait Bayrakdar and Rory Coulter University College London The Understanding Society Scientific Conference 2017 11-13 July, University of Essex

Relevance Leaving parental home is an important step of the transition to independent living for young adults An important indicator of later life-outcomes (poverty risk, housing career) A significant factor influencing other life-course decisions such as partnership and fertility Important for parents and family dynamics Resources, privacy, relationships with children, behaviours of young people and their siblings

Relevance Recent changes to affect home leaving patterns of millennials Changes to housing market Global Financial Crisis Changes to life course events

Background Early exits facilitated by range of factors: Individual characteristics and socio-economic position (Berrington and Murphy, 1994; Iacovou, 2010; Stone et al 2011; 2014) Life events (Thomas and Mulder 2016, Stone et al, 2014) Parental background on home-leaving (Blaauboer, 2010)

Background Cross-national evidence people leave home more quickly where housing (especially in the rental sector) is affordable and accessible (Mandic, 2008). Work by Ermisch (1999) & Ermisch and Di Salvo (1997) suggested higher regional house prices reduce exits, especially to partnership To what extent is this still/less/more strongly the case? Intergenerational effects (social disparities) Local housing markets (spatial disparities)

Research questions How do parental background and local house prices influence the timing and household destinations of young adults’ transitions out of the parental home? Focus: Young people aged 16-30 in parental home at t who completed an interview (cf. Ermisch, 1999) Understanding Society Waves 1-5 (2009-2015) Local Authority house prices from ONS House Price Index N= 10047 (49.58% men, 50.42% women)

Data Four outcomes where young people go at t+1 from parental home Education Partnership Living alone Sharing with others Education Partnership Living alone Sharing with others Education Partnership Living alone Sharing with others Education Partnership Living alone Sharing with others Four outcomes where young people go at t+1 from parental home Independent variables: Parental characteristics: education, income, tenure, District characteristics: house price Control for several individual, parental and district-level factors Multilevel random intercepts probit models Heckman selection models

Key findings Any destination Partnership Other destination   Any destination Partnership Other destination Lives with both biological parents -0.171*** -0.034 -0.272*** Parental degree 0.144*** 0.037 0.216** Parental income -0.007 -0.019 age # parental income 0.006*** 0.004 0.006** Parental tenure (ref ownership) social rent 0.068 0.07 0.180* private rent 0.117 0.085 0.232* Ln district house price -0.203* -0.334* -0.459*** Source: Understanding Society Note; * p<0.05, ** p<0.01, *** p<0.001; controlled for age, sex, having partner or/and child at parental home, health, unemployment, being in education, income, household size, price change, density, unemployment

Predicted Probabilities To isolate how parental factors and local house prices shape departures 8 scenarios Male and female Advantaged and disadvantage profile background: Both biological parents or not Parental homeownership or social/private sector Parent with a degree or not £4500/month or £1750/month income High-cost vs low-cost district (2015 HP) £121000 (Bridgend, South Ayrshire, or Wakefield) £225000 (Barking and Dagenham, Edinburgh, or Worthing)

Predicted probability of leaving home to all destinations

Predicted probability of leaving home to partnership

Predicted probability of leaving home to live alone or with others

Discussion Parental factors are important: With the exception of partnership destination Living with both parents is associated with lower likelihood to leave Parental income and education help individuals to leave early Income effect is conditioned on age! Parental home ownership decreases the likelihood of leaving only for other destinations. Moderate house price effect: Those living in high-cost districts are more likely to leave later.

Acknowledgements This research is supported by an Economic and Social Research Council Future Research Leaders award [ES/L009498/1]. Financial support from the Isaac Newton Trust is also gratefully acknowledged. The United Kingdom Household Longitudinal Study (UKHLS) is conducted by the Institute for Social and Economic Research at the University of Essex. UKHLS data were accessed via the UK Data Service. Neither the original collectors of the data nor the UK Data Service bear any responsibility for the analyses or interpretations presented in this study. This paper is accepted for Population, Space, and Place. Thank you! s.bayrakdar@ucl.ac.uk

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  Any destination Partnership Other destination Age 0.041*** 0.053*** 0.017 Female 0.169*** 0.253*** 0.202*** Not White British -0.280*** -0.450*** -0.328** Family status co-resident partner 0.668*** 1.160*** -0.342 co-resident child 0.584*** 0.111 0.751*** co-resident partner and child 0.853*** 1.227*** -0.472 Limiting health condition 0.028 -0.014 0.069 Unemployed 0.109 -0.071 0.038 Full-time student -0.03 -0.458*** -0.322*** Income 0.119*** 0.173*** 0.118**

  Any destination Partnership Other destination Lives with both biological parents -0.171*** -0.034 -0.272*** Parental degree 0.144*** 0.037 0.216** Parental income -0.007 -0.019 age # parental income 0.006*** 0.004 0.006** Parental tenure (ref ownership) social rent 0.068 0.07 0.180* private rent 0.117 0.085 0.232* Large household 0.06 -0.033 0.096 Ln district house price -0.203* -0.334* -0.459*** District population density (ref low) medium -0.104* -0.07 0.059 high -0.12 -0.068 0.011 District price change 0.002 -0.002 -0.001 District unemployment rate -0.036* -0.029 -0.044