Rising Navies and New World Order Victoria Daigle Faculty Sponsor: Marc Hutchison May 2011

China’s Political Rise China has established itself as a regional hegemon, creating a power-projecting navy. In April 2011, Chinese news sources announced the creation of an aircraft carrier. Sources propose the ship will be ready to set sail later this year.

Does the U.S. need to fear China’s developing naval program? Varyag, China’s aircraft carrier Varyag China’s Aircraft Carrier Does the U.S. need to fear China’s developing naval program?

Power Cycle of Maritime Supremacy Power Cycle Theory contends that power transitions within the International community are inevitable. States follow a course of ascension of power, maturity and dissension of power. Agenda Setting/ Delegitimation Coalition Building/ Deconcentration Macrodecision/ Global War Execution/ World Power 1430-1460 1460-1494 1494-1516 1516-1540 (Portugal) 1540-1560 1560-1580 1580-1609 1609-1640 (Netherlands) 1640-1660 1660-1688 1688-1714 1714-1740 (Britain) 1740-1763 1763-1792 1792-1815 1815-1850 (Britain II) 1850-1873 1873-1914 1914-1945 1945-1973 (United States)

Action Between Ships in the First Dutch War, 1652-1654 Anglo-Dutch Rivalry The Anglo-Dutch Wars and British Maritime Supremacy Action Between Ships in the First Dutch War, 1652-1654 Abraham Willaerts Action Between Ships in the First Dutch War, 1652-1654 Abraham Willaerts

Britain’s rise to Maritime Supremacy Agenda Setting: Britain claimed division of trade with the United Provinces as motive for naval build up. Coalition Building: Britain had formed alliances against the Dutch monopoly on trade. Global War: The Anglo-Dutch Wars and its unsolved conflicts brought both states into debt. World Power: Britain experienced trade increases and by 1715, Britain had surpassed the United Provinces, achieving maritime supremacy.

Anglo-German Naval Arms Race and Britain’s hold on Supremacy British Dreadnought

Anglo-German Rivalry Agenda Setting: German industrialization also led to naval developments. Coalition Building: Germany completed a detailed naval program that would increase its presence in the international community. Global War: British increased naval production, threatening Germany’s strategies. Britain calls for a naval holiday, however Germany does not concede. World Power: Political constraints and the outbreak of World War I prevented Germany from becoming a sea power.

U.S. Japan Rivalry and U.S. Maritime Supremacy Bombing at Pearl Harbor December 7, 1941

U.S. Rise to Maritime Supremacy Agenda Setting: Post WWI the U.S. retained its position as a world power. Coalition Building: The Washington Treaty and the successive London Naval Treaty created arms limitations, keeping other naval programs below parity with the U.S. and Great Britain. Global War: The attack on Pearl Harbor in 1941 broke the tension between the United States and Japan into physical conflict. World Power: At the close of WWII, the U.S. achieved maritime supremacy.

Conclusion Historical case studies show finite periods of maritime supremacy. China’s developing naval program should not cause concern for the U.S. As part of the power cycle, the U.S. must inevitably begin its descent from maritime supremacy, just as other powers have done.