Can we prove the likelihood of events happening? A question…what is the chance of these events happening? Think Pair Share You will get a lift home from an alien. It will snow tomorrow. Can we prove the likelihood of events happening?

Reasoning Interdependence Which learning muscles will we be stretching? Reasoning Interdependence

Why would I say “ a 1 in 3 chance”? 1 3 3 2 1 1 1 2 2 What are we learning? Learning Intention: To be able to describe and predict possible outcomes using the language of chance or likelihood. Success Criteria: I can think logically (..because..) and in clear steps to determine the probability of rolling certain numbers on a dice: I can decide if I can learn this on my own, or need to learn this with others. A quick challenge You are more likely to score ‘1’ on spinner A. True or False? You have an equal chance of scoring a ‘3’ on both spinners. True or False? There is a greater chance of scoring a 2 on B? True or False? Why would I say “ a 1 in 3 chance”? 1 3 3 2 1 1 1 2 2 A B

= = What do we know already? poor chance unlikely You will get a lift home from an alien. poor chance Lots of words that describe the chance of something happening, e.g. unlikely A way of explaining the chance of something happening using numbers… We would say a 1 in 3 chance 2 1 3 1 2 3 1 part with 2 The chance of spinning a 2 = 3 parts altogether The chance of spinning a 3 1 part with 3 = 6 parts altogether We would say a 1 in 6 chance

= Stretching our learning muscles 3 1 2 think logically, step by step, to work out the probability or chance of something happening use to work things out step by step. decide if/ when to learn alongside someone else 2 1 3 The chance of spinning a 2 1 part with 2 = 3 parts altogether

Learning Activity – Probability Games Play these games (on your own or learn alongside a partner. Your choice). Which games are you most likely to win? Which games are you least likely to win? (Use your reasoning skills to decide). Put the games in order: least likely to win most likely to win Game 2 To win, spin an odd number. 2 1 3 Game 1 Game 5 To win, throw an even number. To win, throw an number < 4.

How are we doing? Are you thinking step by step, or just guessing? Have you been learning on your own? Is now the time to work with someone else? Or are you ready to try this on your own?

What have we learned? You will eat some lunch today. Think Pair Share You will eat some lunch today. You will roll a 3 or a 2 on a dice. You will roll a seven on a dice. You will roll a 1 on a dice.

Think Pair Share Only if you worked with someone else How did you decide when or if to work with someone else?

Resources

You will get a lift home from an alien. You will feed a dolphin in the swimming pool. Tomorrow will be sunny all day. You will eat some lunch today. You will find five 50 pence pieces on the way home from school. When you toss a coin, it will land on heads. When you toss a coin, it will land on heads or on tails. It will snow tomorrow. Pr1R1

You will roll a seven on a dice. You will drive a car when you are older. You will rule the world! You will sharpen a pencil today. You will be a famous singer when you are older. It will rain on a Wednesday. Pr1R1

perhaps might unlikely likely certain uncertain probable possible impossible good chance poor chance no chance equal chance evens even chance fifty- fifty Pr1R2

Game 1 Game 2 Game 3 Game 4 Game 5 Game 7 Game 9 Game 6 Game 8 To win, throw an even number. To win, throw a number in the 2x table. To win, throw an number > 4. To win, throw an number < 4. To win, spin an odd number. Game 7 Game 9 Game 6 Game 8 2 1 3 3 15 12 18 9 6 To win, throw a number that has a pattern in which there are 3 dots in a row. To win, throw a 7. To win, throw an number > 4. To win, spin a single digit number Pr1R3

3 15 12 18 9 6 2 1 3 Pr1R4