Concluding Observations Political Science 61 / Chicano/Latino Studies 64 Lecture 18 December 4, 2007

Second Exam In class, December 6 Format Essay (67 percent of the grade) Identifications (33 percent of the grade) Answer 3 of the 6 IDs (11 points each) Define and identify a significance to the study of minority politics

The Persistence of Racial Politics Persistence of racial bias among some in majority population Persistence of the legacies of past discrimination “Second generation” remedies Ongoing reinforcement of “minority” population through immigration Populations that bring divergent human capital and need support to succeed And, have lower than average rates of political engagement challenging the vitality of pluralism

Challenge by Immigrant/ Minority Populations Has Been True Throughout U.S. History What’s different today? Numbers Leaders New models of cross-group cooperation These create the foundations for a new racial/ethnic politics But, require ongoing and increasing societal investment (see Tienda article assigned for today)

Numbers

Population Composition, 2000-2100 (current immigration levels)

State Minority Populations, 2000-2025 57 25 42

Growth Assumes Continued Immigration That would seem to be the path the U.S. is on Proposals for a “guest worker” program and increased border enforcement If passed, will increase immigration Passage in Congress will require support from moderate Democrats, meaning some legalization Little conversation about changing the level of immigration to permanent residence Without changes to law, eligibility for immigration to permanent residence will increase over time That said, if history is a model, at some point, immigration will slow

Also Assumes Maintenance of Current Race/Ethnic Definitions New dynamic – multiracial population Currently small, but will grow Intermarriage/relationship rates Black-White Asian-White Hispanic-White Marriage 3.93% 12.50% 14.01% Opposite Sex Unmarried 8.80% 34.14% 18.86%

Leaders

New Minority Elected Leadership Since the passage of the VRA, energy has been focused on electing leaders to office Effects have been dramatic 1970-2001, 520 percent increase in Black elected officials nationally 1973-2004, 237 percent increased in Latino officeholders in six states (AZ, CA, FL, NM, NY, TX) 1984-2004, 55 percent increase nationally

Black Elected Officials, 1970-2001

Latino Elected Officials, 1973-2004 1973-2004 change, +237 percent

But, Blacks and Latinos hold only a small share of elective offices nationally 1.5 percent (1 in 66) nationally is Black 0.9 percent (1 in 111) nationally is Latino Underrepresented even in large states, Black Mississippi – 18.9% officeholders (34% of population) Alabama – 16.7% of officeholders (25% of population) Latino New Mexico—32.0% officeholders (42.1% population) Texas—7.3% officeholders (32.0% population) California—5.2% officeholders (32.4% population)

Sources of the Next Generation of Leadership Leaders of immigrant organizations Community leaders seeking new venues Local officeholders preparing to seek higher office Antonio Villaraigosa Rocky Delgadillo Leaders in the right position at the right time Condoleezza Rice Bill Richardson Routes to leadership not previously available – business, the military, and universities

Opportunities for Cross-Group Alliance Around Shared Issues

New Electoral Models of Cross-Group Cooperation The Villaraigosa “coalition” An elite coalition that may form a mass coalition Villaraigosa is now a national Latino leader – arguably the first non-black “minority” spokesperson The Obama presidential campaign Like Villaraigosa, he too is a national leader Both national political parties now seeking minority support Illinois 2004 Senate race State parties (particularly Republicans) less likely to reach out – four statewide black Republican candidates in 2006

Other Institutions Also Creating Cross-Group Coalitions Unions (in major cities) organizing immigrants and workers Service sector unions critical to: Villaraigosa victory in Los Angeles Spring immigration rallies Churches increasingly seeing growth from immigrant communities Both Protestant and Catholic Again, critical to spring rallies Media, more ethnic specific, but an institution that can be tapped to mobilize immigrant/ethnic communities

Conclusions

Foundations of Future U.S. Racial and Ethnic Politics Legacies of the Civil Rights Movement Core goals of the movement succeeded Statutory exclusion unlawful Minority voices at all levels of governance “Second generation” protections under challenge—courts, electorates, and legislatures

Foundations (2) Large-scale immigration Will continue for foreseeable future Ongoing popular opposition (including among racial and ethnic minorities) But, immigration creates a unique coalition of business, upper-income liberal voters, and ethnic group leaders Shift national demographic balance Ends era of Black-White “minority” politics

Building on These Foundations Rights and gains can be taken away (lesson of first part of course) Demography isn’t destiny Numbers don’t guarantee representation/power Coalition politics isn’t automatic Ture and Hamilton model—groups form coalitions when each sees it in its interest Coalitions form around issues Identities change over time Today’s definitions of race/ethnicity will change Pan-ethnic identities may be particularly fluid

Shaping the Future Organization Enough said? The VRA guarantees that all groups will be able to organize politically Post-1965 immigration adds to the population to organize Minority communities now have a network of leaders that will be hard to disassemble But, racial/ethnic identity may be replaced by other identities

If You Liked This Course … Political Science 124B – Latinos in U.S. Politics Political Science 124D – Race and Citizenship in America Political Science 126A – Mexican Americans and Politics Political Science 126C – U.S. Immigration Policy Special topics classes (offered regularly) Black Politics Asian American Politics