Mexican American Electoral Participation: Opportunities and Limits Mexican Americans and Politics Lecture 12 February 16, 2006

Upcoming Events Essay 2, due February 23 – Next Thursday Midterm, March 2 – Two weeks from today

White, Black, Latino, and Asian American Turnout, 2004 Turnout (among adults) Turnout (among citizen adults) Non-Hispanic White 65.8% 67.2% Non-Hispanic Black 56.3% 60.0% Latino 28.0% 47.2% Asian Pacific Islander 30.7% 44.6%

Latino Turnout, 1996, 2000, and 2004 Latino Adults (,000) Latino Voters (,000) Turnout % Citizen Turnout % 1996 18,426 4,928 26.7 44.0 2000 21,598 5,934 27.5 45.1 2004 27,129 7,587 28.0 47.2

Take Away Points Consistent gap between Latino and non-Hispanic white participation in national elections Controlling for differential levels of non-U.S. citizenship closes, but does not eliminate, the gap

Why the Gap? Demographic/compositional factors Mobilization/leadership/networks Assertions that Mexican Americans don’t vote because they don’t want to or are disinterested in U.S. politics have no support A few examples of Mexican Americans/Latinos voting at higher rates that Anglos Possibly LA City elections in the late-1990s/early 2000s

Demographic/Compositional Factors Demographic/compositional factors that generally work to the disadvantage of Mexican Americans Citizenship Age Education Income State of residence – residence in states with few competitive elections

Mobilization/Leadership Networks People respond to being asked to participate So, institutions must be in place to ask Political factors drive whether resources will be invested Campaigns and candidates invest in individuals who have voted in the past No equivalent investment in people who haven’t participated Mexican Americans, consequently, often neglected (and repeatedly neglected)

Which of these Will Come into Play in 2008? Compositional factors reduce Latino participation Several states likely to be competitive Florida New Mexico Maybe – Colorado, Arizona, and Nevada Some candidates could generate excitement Bill Richardson could energize some Latinos An anti-immigration candidate, like Rep. Tom Tancredo (R-CO), could mobilize Latinos in opposition

Can Mobilization Overcome These Gaps? Yes, but Incentives to create new mobilizing institutions have existed since the 1970s To appear in 2008 would require leadership, money, and an issue (opportunity or threat) Why? Civic networks are weaker in Latino communities Unions playing a new role Parties and campaigns have short-term goal: to win Mobilizing takes a longer view and this takes resources

Would Mexican American Electorate Change if Non-Voters Voted? It would certainly grow in numbers (2004) 7,587,000 Latino voters 8,501,000 adult citizen non-voters 11,041,000 adult non-U.S. citizens Political leanings of Mexican American non-voters, including non-U.S. citizens, similar to those of Mexican American voters Mexican American electorate would become more Democratic, younger, and poorer Also, more Californian and more urban

Biggest Debate in Media/Party Discussions of Latino Electoral Politics Not, why don’t more Latinos vote, but are Latinos becoming Republican?

Argument Made by Republican Leaders Mexican Americans are self-professed conservatives Who are more likely than other Democrats To oppose abortion and be socially conservative To support the death penalty and the military Also more like to own small businesses Bush has made personal inroads Bush speaks Spanish 1998 Texas gubernatorial campaign Spanish-language ads in Iowa, 2000 Caucuses

All Correct, but Misunderstand Mexican American Community They are big government conservatives Interesting research question – what does conservatism mean in Mexican American communities? Delivery of social services top agenda Bush’s personal appeal to some Mexican Americans has not translated to Republicans Exit polls of Mexican Americans/Latinos not too accurate “Ricochet pander”—Goal of Bush outreach not necessarily Latino votes

Latino Partisanship—Rule of Thumb (Outside Florida) Going into a competitive election Democrats have 60 percent of the Latino vote Republicans have 20 percent Remaining 20 percent up for grabs In Florida, reverse the party names Bush 2000 – 29-38 percent of the Latino vote (assume low 30s) Bush 2004 --41-43 percent of the Latino vote Does this reflect a fundamental change in Mexican American and Latino voting patterns? Wait for next class!

For Next Time Review the essay question and write a thesis statement that you believe that you have sufficient evidence to support. We will talk about the essay at the beginning of class Tuesday. Why do Leal, et al. think the National Exit Poll is wrong? Do you find their argument and their evidence convincing?