Predictors of early school leaving in Flemish secondary education P&V conference on early school leaving and youth unemployment Mieke Van Houtte

Starting point For decades: problem of student unqualified dropout in Western education Flanders: 10% to 15% of students in secondary school leave prematurely (Steunpunt Studie- en Schoolloopbanen, Van Landeghem et al.) To prevent dropout: insight into predictors necessary Definition dropout: Leaving secondary education prior to completion without qualification, diploma or minimal credential

International research into predictors: push-factors and pull-factors Example pull-factor: paid parttime work (all else equal) (VLO 2004-2005)

social risk factors and academic risk factors Correlates of intention to dropout Flemish secondary education (VLO 2004-2005) social academic

Intention to dropout by track (VLO 2004-2005)

Association track position and risk to dropout? Flemish secondary education = hierarchical  different tracks ordered according to level of abstraction and theory consequence: technical and vocational bottom of ladder * knowledge society:  blue collar work little esteemed * future perspectives

- technical and vocational education often negative choice - selection criterium  purely cognitive - in educational system, technical or vocational = failure

differentiation-polarisation theory (Hargreaves, Lacey, Ball, Rosenbaum, …) differentiation: segregation of students based on academic criteria polarisation: origin of opposite groups of students, one group characterised as pro-school, the other as counter-school

‘higher’ tracks = status = positive experience ‘lower’ tracks = status-loss = failure  resistance against system * rejecting values system is based on (namely: hard working and competence) * looking for alternative sources of status result = counter-schoolculture Cascade reinforces effect!

Study attitudes by track (VLO 2004-2005)

alternative sources of status: ‘what adults do’ (Willis, 1977) Alternative sources of status by track % (VLO 2004-2005) Uitgaan: een keer per maand of meer Veel uitgaan: meerdere keren per week

 interplay student-teacher-culture

Conclusion Prevention of early school leaving requires knowledge on predictors Next to social and academic risk factors, in Flanders: vocational track as main predictor Important factors in vocational education: teacher support and sense of futility