https://www.epa.gov/climate-indicators Greenhouse Gases Weather and Climate Oceans Snow and Ice Health and Society Ecosystems

Climate Change Indicators https://www.epa.gov/climate-indicators

Climate Change Indicators https://www.epa.gov/climate-indicators

Climate Change Indicators https://www.epa.gov/climate-indicators

Climate Change Indicators https://www.epa.gov/climate-indicators

Climate Change Indicators https://www.epa.gov/climate-indicators

Climate Change Indicators https://www.epa.gov/climate-indicators

Greenhouse Gases Global Greenhouse Gas Emissions https://www. epa

Weather and Climate River Flooding https://www. epa

Oceans Ocean Acidity https://www.epa.gov/climate-indicators

Snow and Ice Lake Ice https://www.epa.gov/climate-indicators

Health and Society Heat-Related Deaths https://www. epa

Ecosystems Great Lakes Water Levels https://www. epa

Current Issue Assignment Select a date for your presentation on the in-class sign-up sheet Choose an indicator (or several options) from https://www.epa.gov/climate-indicators E-mail your preferred topic(s) to szemba@sanbornhead.com or stephen_zemba@uml.edu Topics will be assigned on first-come, first-serve basis, will be confirmed by e-mail, and compiled/maintained in the schedule in the CurrentIssue folder at the course website

Current Issue Assignment Guidelines Key reference material used by EPA should be researched (multiple references) and cited Required are: 5-10 minute in-class presentation, to be turned in electronically and posted at the course website Current Issue folder Summary sheet, also to be turned in electronically and posted at the course website Current Issue folder; summary sheet should also include a 2nd page of references/citations

West Nile Virus Example Current Issue https://www. epa Transmitted to humans by mosquitoes from birds (1) First found in humans in Uganda in 1937 and in Nile delta birds in 1953 (1) Identified in the U.S. in 1999 (2) Causes/symptoms (2) None in some people Headache, body aches, joint pains, vomiting, diarrhea, and rash Encephalitis, meningitis, and occasionally death Half of cases are neuroinvasive

West Nile Virus Activity in 2016 (2) http://www. cdc

West Nile Virus Incidence (2) http://www. cdc West Nile Virus Incidence (2) http://www.cdc.gov/westnile/statsmaps/preliminarymapsdata/incidencestatedate.html Historic (2002 – 2014) Most Recent (2016)

West Nile Virus in 2016 (3) http://diseasemaps.usgs.gov/mapviewer/ Sources of incidence data Disease diagnoses Blood testing (including donations)

Relationship to Climate Change Climate change is expected to affect the geographic and seasonal patterns of vector-borne diseases (4) Other studies indicate warmer temperatures increase mosquito activity and incubation rates (4) Migration patterns of birds (carriers) may also be changing due to climate change Outbreaks associated with droughts in urban areas (5), mild winters (4), and precipitation patterns/mosquito development (4)

Temporal Pattern of Neuroinvasive Cases (2)

Conclusions Logically, warmer temperatures from climate change could lead to greater incidence of West Nile Virus and other vector-borne diseases Presuming that warming is occurring, incidence data from 2002 to 2014 show no clear evidence of simple cause and effect Many complicating factors limit the usefulness of West Nile Virus as a simple climate change marker Climate change variables may not on average be relevant to mosquito propagation Mitigation efforts (e.g., spraying, awareness and avoidance) may be decreasing incidence

References World Health Organization fact sheet http://www.who.int/mediacentre/factsheets/fs354/en/. Accessed September 2016. Centers for Disease Control and Prevention. West Nile virus symptoms and treatment www.cdc.gov/westnile/symptoms/index.html and West Nile virus statistics and maps www.cdc.gov/westnile/statsmaps/index.html. Accessed September 2016. U.S. Geological Survey Map Viewer http://diseasemaps.usgs.gov/mapviewer/ Beard, C.B., R.J. Eisen, C.M. Barker, J.F. Garofalo, M. Hahn, M. Hayden, A.J. Monaghan, N.H. Ogden, and P.J. Schramm. 2016. Chapter 5: Vector-borne diseases. The impacts of climate change on human health in the United States: A scientific assessment. U.S. Global Change Research Program. https://health2016.globalchange.gov. Hahn, M.B., A.J. Monaghan, M.H. Hayden, R.J. Eisen, M.J. Delorey, N.P. Lindsey, R.S. Nasci, and M. Fischer. 2015. Meteorological conditions associated with increased incidence of West Nile virus disease in the United States, 2004–2012. Am. J. Trop. Med. Hyg.92(5):1013–1022.

West Nile Virus 85.571 Current Issue Assignment Stephen Zemba 2016 Incidence of West Nile Virus Facts About West Nile Virus Transmitted to humans by mosquitoes from birds (1) First found in humans in Uganda in 1937 and in Nile delta birds in 1953 (1) Identified in the U.S. in 1999 (2) Causes/symptoms (2) None in some people Headache, body aches, joint pains, vomiting, diarrhea, and rash Encephalitis, meningitis, and occasionally death Half of cases are neuroinvasive Temporal Pattern of Neuroinvasive Cases (2) Relationship to Climate Change Climate change expected to affect geographic and seasonal patterns of vector-borne diseases (4) Other studies indicate warmer temperatures increase mosquito activity and incubation rates (4) Migration patterns of birds (carriers) may also be changing due to climate change West Nile Virus outbreaks associated with droughts in urban areas (5), mild winters (4), and precipitation patterns/mosquito development (4) Temporal pattern does not indicate a clear trend of West Nile Virus increases with time Mitigation efforts may be masking a signal, or the relationship to climate change may not be simple West Nile Virus at present is not a good climate change indicator