CENTRAL- EAST EUROPEAN REGION TO 2030”

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Presentation transcript:

CENTRAL- EAST EUROPEAN REGION TO 2030” INSTITUTE OF POWER ENGINEERING CENERG Centre of Excellence Integration Centre for Central Europe for Research in Energy Supply from Fossil Fuels and Renewable Sources “ENERGY STRATEGY OF THE CENTRAL- EAST EUROPEAN REGION TO 2030” PROF. DR MAREK JACZEWSKI CENERG INSTITUTE OF POWER ENGINEERING 3rd CENERG WORKSHOP 15 NOVEMBER 2004 KATOWICE, POLAND

Information on energy data We received energy data from all countries except Estonia and some except data for 2030. They seem too optimistic, so we prepared a new forecast assuming 1,5% increase per year for primary energy and 2% for electricity.

!Regional Energy Data for 2000 Country Population TPES Electricity Cons. Heat Generation GDP TPES/GDP Kgoe/$ TPES/c Bulgaria 8,1 15,4 36,3 50,8 56,6 0,3 1,9 Czech R. 10,3 40,4 58,5 149,1 131,9 3,9 Estonia 1,4 4,5 7,8 31,9 17,2 3,2 Hungary 10,0 24,8 33,8 71,2 112,9 0,2 2,5 Latvia 2,4 3,7 5,9 33,9 16,8 1,6 Lithuania 3,5 3,8 8,8 42,0 24,2 1,1 Poland 38,7 89,7 124,6 370,3 348,3 2,3 Romania 22,4 39,8 190,8 106,9 Slovakia 5,4 19,8 23,7 55,0 0,4 Slovenia 2,0 6,3 12,3 9,3 32,0 Region 104,2 244,7 351,5 1007,8 901,8

Proposals With the 10 new members of the European Union the imports dependence will lessen. There will be the possibility to lessen the peak of electrical load due to time shift by some 2000 MW in the East – West and North – South directions. In the oil and gas supply there will rise too new possibilities of diversification of supply using all pipelines In further works on energy supply the energy transit through the Region will play a significant role to enable the utilization the Russian sources. Unavoidable seem the further development of nuclear power, in particular for electricity generation.