Energy Policy and Development Centre (KEPA) 6th International Scientific Conference on Energy and Climate Change Policy portfolios for emerging economies 9 – 10 – 11, October 2013 Athens, Greece Organized by: Energy Policy and Development Centre (KEPA) Coordinator of P R O M I T H E A S - The Energy and Climate Change Policy Network

Ph. D. Anca POPESCU Institute for Studies and Power Engineering - ISPE “The assessment of Romania’s progress towards 2020 greenhouse gases targets taking into account climate change mitigation and energy policy objectives” Ph. D. Anca POPESCU Institute for Studies and Power Engineering - ISPE

Content Introduction Evolution of GHG emissions Energy sector strategies GHG forecasting methodology for energy sector Conclusions

Romania signed the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change in 1992, and ratified it in 1994; Romania signed the Kyoto Protocol in 1999 and ratified it in January 2001 being the first Annex I Party that ratified it; Romania committed itself to reduce the greenhouse gases emissions by 8% comparing to 1989 level in the period 2008 – 2012 and met this commitment.

The evolution of the total GHG emissions for the period 1989 – 2011 Source: Ministry of Environment and Climate Change – National Inventory Report, May 2013 The evolution of the total GHG emissions reflects the main trends in the economic development of the country.

The period 1989 – 2012 was characterized by: a process of transition to a market economy; restructuring of economy; putting into operation of the first reactor at the Cernavoda Nuclear Power Plant in 1996 and of the second reactor in 2007; the revitalization of the economy in the period 2000 – 2007; the economic crisis in the period 2008 – 2011; the increase of economic activities level after 2012; the decrease of the greenhouse gases emissions by 8% comparing to 1989 level in the period 2008 - 2012.

GHG by main categories – average share for the period 1989 - 2011 The largest contributor to the total national of GHG emissions is CO2, followed by CH4 and N2O.

Sectorial GHG emissions in 2011 [%] Source: Ministry of Environment and Climate Change – National Inventory Report, May 2013

The Romanian Government adopted in July 2013 through Government Decision 529/2013 the second National Strategy on Climate Change (NSCC) 2013 – 2020. The general objective of the strategy focused on measures taken by Romania in order to transpose the EU requirements of the “Energy – Climate Change” Package. The Romanian Government established the strategic scope for the energy sector to meet both the current and the medium and long term energy demand, for the lowest possible price, adequate to a modern market economy and to a civilized living standard, under quality and safety conditions, in observance of the sustainable development principles.

Romanian Energy Strategy has the following objectives: Energy security, by: lower dependence of imported energy through the use of national resources of lignite and hard coal, hydropower and wind power; import diversification of resources through the use of both nuclear fuel and natural gas; Sustainable development through: energy efficiency through the use of modern technologies in the years 2015; promotion of electricity in hydroelectric and wind power; promoting the production of electricity and heat in cogeneration plants using high-efficiency technologies for natural gas; rehabilitation of transmission and distribution system correlated to rehabilitation of buildings to reduce energy losses and the development of new intelligent buildings; Competitiveness: development of markets for electricity, natural gas, uranium, green certificates, certification of greenhouse gas emissions.

Romania transposed the following EU Directives in its legislation, with implications on the national primary energy consumption, respectively: Directive 2006/32/EC on energy end-use efficiency and energy services; Directive 2005/32/EC establishing a framework for the setting of eco-design requirements for energy-using products; Directive 2009/28/EC on the promotion of the use of energy from renewable sources; Directive 2004/8/EC on the promotion of cogeneration based on a useful heat demand in the internal energy market.

The main measures ensuring the increase of energy efficiency are: Applying the state aid scheme afferent to high efficiency cogeneration; Continuing the “Heating 2006 - 2015 heat and comfort” program; The compulsory nature of the energy performance certificate for current single family housing and apartments in building blocks that are sold or leased; The heating upgrade of blocks of flats; The compulsion to enforce the provisions of the European efficiency directives and standards for new buildings; The efficiency of lighting systems, the use of low energy lamps.

The second National Plan on Energy Efficiency for the 2011 - 2020 represents an update of the Energy Strategy for the period 2007 – 2020. The primary energy saving measures on the generation of electricity and heating are as follows: Withdrawing from service the generating units whose lifespan has been exceeded and which have become obsolete and the replacement thereof with modern units with superior efficiencies; Re-engineering 330 MW units operating in lignite-fired power plants; Promoting high efficiency cogeneration; gas turbines with a heat recovery boiler (GT+HRB) and a combined cycle with gas turbines (CC+GT) of approximately 1000 MW and 600 MW biomass-fired units shall be installed; Continuing the upgrade works of district heating supply systems, respectively the units generating heat fluid, the primary heat fluid (hot water) transmission grid, the heating stations and heating modules, the hot water and heat fluid distribution network; Generating electricity from renewable energy sources.

National Renewable Energy Action Plan indicates the installed powers per types of technologies from renewable energy sources, resulting the energies generated, indicated in table bellow: [GWh]   2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 Total generated electricity, of which: 22,358 25,923 25,473 28,845 29,577 30,225 30,866 31,388 Hydropower plants 17,624 18,191 18,679 18,904 19,063 19,491 19,768 Photovoltaic power stations 100 140 180 220 246 271 320 Wind power plants 4,634 5,952 6,614 7,271 7,668 8230 8,230 8,400 Biomass-fired power plants 1,200 1,640 2,050 2,450 2,600 2,850 2,900 In 2020 electricity production from renewable energy sources will represent 38% of total electricity production in Romania.

GHG emissions forecast methodology - 1 The GHG forecasts for the energy sector were established considering the energy demand subsector (industry, transport, agriculture, household and commercial consumption) and the supplying sub-sector (primary energy resources extraction, their conversion in refineries, thermo-electric power plants, thermal power plants, transport and distribution of energetic products to consumers). The projections are based on calculations carried out using the ENPEP (Energy and Power Evaluation Program) programs package, developed by Argonne National laboratory of US Department of Energy (DOE) and distributed to Romania by the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) to perform an integrated energy analysis, economic and environmental.

GHG emissions forecast methodology - 2 The software package presents 9 modules. The main modules used in the study are: MAED is a simulation model designed for evaluate medium and long-term demand for energy (motor fuel, fossil fuel, district heating, electricity, coke, feedstock) based on the macroeconomic indicators evolution; ELECTRIC - determines the electricity power plants development programme considering the Romanian Government’s adopted policies on renewable energy resources use, on ensuring the energy security, on technological evolution and on international market fuel prices; BALANCE module – determines the balance between energy demand – supply the entire system, including all the demand sectors and the supply sectors (oil, gas, coal, electricity, renewable, etc.) for every year of the study; IMPACTS – estimates, for the energetic system determined using the BALANCE module and for the electro-energetic system determined using the ELECTRIC module, the impact on atmosphere, water, soil, the impact of the specific waste, the impact on materials and labour needed for the installations construction and exploitation, the impact on related employees risk and health.

The national energy balance In order to allow the use of the modules package, a national energy balance has been prepared considering the available or imported primary energy resources. Simplified energy balance has four major elements: primary energy resources; primary energy resources conversion technologies; transmission and distribution of energy products; energy consumers Each sector is modelled in detail considering the technological processes and emission factors according to IPCC. Given this breakdown with the IMPACTS module the resulted GHG emissions are determined.

Romania’s Energy Balance

The projected level of the total CO2 emissions from the energy sector in the analyzed scenarios in the period 2012 - 2020

The European Parliament and Council adopted in April 2009 Decision 406/2009/EC on the effort of Member States to reduce GHG emissions in order to meet the Community's commitments to reduce GHG emissions by 2020. This decision aimed to establish the minimum contribution of Member States to respect the Community's commitments to reduce GHG emissions in the period 2013 - 2020. Taking into consideration that amount of verified emissions under the EU ETS from 2007 were 69,604.599 Gg CO2eq. in Romania resulted that GHG emissions related to non – ETS sectors will be 77,200 Gg CO2 eq. in the scenario with adopted measures. It may be noted that Romania complies with the requirements of Decision 406/2009/EC as GHG emissions projected for 2020 for the non – ETS sectors are smaller than would be required target of 85,627.510 Gg CO2 eq.

Conclusions - 1 All development strategies, policies and measures have been developed and implemented in accordance with EU documents ensuring harmonization of policies, plans and programs in accordance with the requirements of EU integration. As a result of transposing EU legislation into national legislation, Romania has introduced and implemented policies and measures in all economic sectors which will contribute indirectly to reducing GHG emissions.

Conclusions - 2 Some example of the policies and measures effects: No Policy/Measure Estimated effect of the policy and measures on GHG emissions (kt CO2 equivalent) in 2020 1 GD 1069/2007 Romania’s Energy Strategy for 2007 – 2020 8,336.868 2 National Renewable Energy Action Plan 4,766.726 3 GD 22/2008 transposition of Directive 2006/32/EC on energy end-use efficiency and energy services 691.760 4 GD 780/2006 establishing the greenhouse gas emission allowance trading scheme, amended by GD 133/2010, GD 399/2010, GD 1300/2010 and the subsequent legislation 2,000.000 5 The second National Plan on Energy Efficiency for 2011- 2020 955.660

Thank you for your attention! Ph. D. Anca POPESCU INSTITUTE FOR STUDIES AND POWER ENGINEERING (ISPE) 1-3 Lacul Tei Blvd., Bucharest Telephone: 021 206.1089 E-mail: anca.popescu@ispe.ro Fax: 021 210.12.55 www.ispe.ro Thank you for your attention!