Biksham Gujja and Shiva Kumar Kanike TAJ PALACE, NEW DELHI | 12 – 14 SEPTEMBER 2016 Variability of river discharges: A major challenge for water allocations and water management in India   Biksham Gujja and Shiva Kumar Kanike * Senior Water Policy adviser, WWF-International (1993-2010), Now with AgSri Agricultural Services pvt ltd, Road no 10, Banjara Hills, Hyderabad – 34 Email : bg@agsri.com Scientist H+ Gouvernement of India (until 2015), Now with AgSri Agricultural Services pvt ltd, Road 10, Banjara Hills, Hyderabad – 34 Email : shivkumar.kanike@agsri.com

Key Challenges for Water Allocation in India TAJ PALACE, NEW DELHI | 12 – 14 SEPTEMBER 2016 Key Challenges for Water Allocation in India Increasing scarcity of fresh water Climate induced uncertainty in precipitation Variability in intensity and periodicity of river flows and floods Basin closure and lack of more sites for water infrastructure Excessive surface and ground water exploitation Growth and Change in economy leading to more variety users and demands Decline of freshwater ecosystems and loss of river system functions Inter state and Inter basin conflicts

Water management: Conceptual frame work TAJ PALACE, NEW DELHI | 12 – 14 SEPTEMBER 2016 Water management: Conceptual frame work Water management is gaining importance in India Managing the variability needs new approaches, strategy and investments Demand management- improving the per unit of productivity, not acreage, not TMC Releasing water from dam requires sophisticated computer models Reducing water conflicts: Conflicts will not improve the water availability There is no way one can irrigate all the lands, that is not even an option Telangana has unique opportunity to do things differently Farmers don’t need more irrigation, they need increased income Cost benefit is the key principle

TAJ PALACE, NEW DELHI | 12 – 14 SEPTEMBER 2016 GODAVARI RIVER BASIN

Sri Ram Sagar Project (SRSP) TAJ PALACE, NEW DELHI | 12 – 14 SEPTEMBER 2016 Sri Ram Sagar Project (SRSP) On main Godavari with a capacity of 2,600 MCM or 92 TMC To irrigate 16.85 lakh acres in two stages Canals: Kakatiya, Saraswati and Laxmi Canal

Some questions to understand TAJ PALACE, NEW DELHI | 12 – 14 SEPTEMBER 2016 Some questions to understand What is the variability of water inflows into the dam over period of time? Is there any significant change over last 30 years? What is the quantity of water being let into Godavari after dam is full - year wise, month wise, daily? Is there any possibility of diverting some of the flood flow using current FF canal? By changing the storage schedule of Dam, is there a possibility of using more water without compromising the current use? What are the cropping pattern today and is there way to improve water use efficiency? Is there a possibility of using water more efficiently without compromising the current production? Is there possibility of reducing the variability by creating new storages or managing water better?

Variation of total water quantity is about twice TAJ PALACE, NEW DELHI | 12 – 14 SEPTEMBER 2016 Correlation is observed in rainfall data, compounded water quantity and the river out flow at Yelli and Inflows of SRSP  Variation of total water quantity is about twice  High amount of water observed at SRSP than the Yelli may be due to addition during the course of the river

TAJ PALACE, NEW DELHI | 12 – 14 SEPTEMBER 2016

TAJ PALACE, NEW DELHI | 12 – 14 SEPTEMBER 2016 Water allocations done with 75% dependability is highly variable with period of time

TAJ PALACE, NEW DELHI | 12 – 14 SEPTEMBER 2016

TAJ PALACE, NEW DELHI | 12 – 14 SEPTEMBER 2016 Max(TMC) Annual(TMC) In flow 2004 9.08 110.72 In flow 2005 1.82 18.77 In flow 2006 27.76 369.27 In flow 2007 40.78 506.35 In flow 2008 6.97 90.13 In flow 2009 12.03 118.25 In flow 2010 3.90 32.90 In flow 2011 10.01 294.44 In flow 2012 15.73 163.36 In flow 2013 8.24 54.48 In flow 2014 12.32 231.10 On 7th August 2006 river discharge into the dam is as high as 1155 MCM or 40.78 TMC, which is three times of the entire year 2015 (15 TMC)

TAJ PALACE, NEW DELHI | 12 – 14 SEPTEMBER 2016

Inflow-Outflow during full reservoir TAJ PALACE, NEW DELHI | 12 – 14 SEPTEMBER 2016 Inflow-Outflow during full reservoir

TAJ PALACE, NEW DELHI | 12 – 14 SEPTEMBER 2016

Water utilized upto 146.1 TMC per anum in 1999-2000 TAJ PALACE, NEW DELHI | 12 – 14 SEPTEMBER 2016 Water usage at SRSP Water utilized upto 146.1 TMC per anum in 1999-2000 Two years utilized water reduced to 0 TMC (2004-05 and 2009-10) Water sufficient year is catering to the water deficient year (eg 2002-03 followed by 2003-04; similarly 2005-06 followed by 2006-07) Necessity of better management of unutilized water is warranted

Discharges to various canals during 2008-2014 TAJ PALACE, NEW DELHI | 12 – 14 SEPTEMBER 2016 Discharges to various canals during 2008-2014 (All data in TMC) Year Inflow Kakathiya Canal Saraswathi Canal Lakshmi Power Lift Irrigation Industry Total Utility Godavari River Evaporation Losses Total Out flow 2008 93 39 10 1 51 5 56 2009 129 81 13 3 100 14 113 2010 34 21 2 26 6 31 2011 309 94 12 33 149 137 15 299 2012 167 140 22 175 2013 54 9 46 2014 236 91 66 17 222

Increase of ppt during monsoon only TAJ PALACE, NEW DELHI | 12 – 14 SEPTEMBER 2016 Climate Change Mean annual precipitation increases by 14% by mid century, 18% by end century Increase of ppt during monsoon only High risk of floods and draught (Gosain et al 2011)

TAJ PALACE, NEW DELHI | 12 – 14 SEPTEMBER 2016 Due to change in crop pattern significant improvement in the productivity since 2008

TAJ PALACE, NEW DELHI | 12 – 14 SEPTEMBER 2016 Take home points Variation: The inflows are highly variant from year to year and within a year and on day to day basis. Large quantity of water comes in very short period of time during the flood year During the drought year, the flow goes down as low as 19 TMC Daily flow: exceed even 40 TMC, which is thrice the inflow in drought year. The current water utilization seem to range from 26 to 149 TMC. There is enough water in certain years, but needs management strategy Future Approach Study on optimal diversion, FF Canal and water diversion. Releasing water before it attains FRL Predicting the flows high quality catchment modeling

Dealing with Variability TAJ PALACE, NEW DELHI | 12 – 14 SEPTEMBER 2016 Dealing with Variability Understand the water entitlements at the beginning of the project Prioritize water users Proportional reduction Ensure that decisions do not foreclose future options Establishment of strong monitoring systems to observe changes Lower the Dependability without compromising cost effectiveness Contingency allocations Ensuring minimum environmental flows in the down stream

Water Allocation Process in India TAJ PALACE, NEW DELHI | 12 – 14 SEPTEMBER 2016 Water Allocation Process in India Water allocations with an objectives of equity, environmental protection, developmental priorities, balance between demand and supply, efficient use need to Deal with variability annual, seasonal and daily Generalized 75% dependability water should be revisited Climate change and human induced structures Balancing environmental, economic, social and political complexities Priority sectors for overall prosperity Water pricing initiatives Share benefits of water use rather than water itself Sophisticated risk base environmental water flow and productivity models

TAJ PALACE, NEW DELHI | 12 – 14 SEPTEMBER 2016 Source of Information Discharge data From To Source Bhabli 1968 1978 CWChttp://www.india-wris.nrsc.gov.in/ Yelli 1979 2012 Basar 1982 Mancheryal 1967 Water inflow-outflow At SRSP 1982-2012 Monthly, ayacut State irrigation Dept Inflow outflow daily at SRSP 2004 2014 http://cadarsms.cgg.gov.in/detailedReport.do Canal outflows from SRSP 2007 Godavari basin map http://india-wris.nrsc.gov.in/ India-WRIS