New Developments in Energy and Climate Change: The Potential for a New Energy Economy       U.S. Society for Ecological Economics Macalester College, St. Paul Minnesota June 27, 2017 Jonathan M. Harris http://ase.tufts.edu/gdae Copyright © 2017 Jonathan M. Harris

Carbon Emissions from Fossil Fuel Consumption, 1860–2013 Cement production and gas flaring Coal Oil Gas Source: Carbon Dioxide Information Analysis Center (CDIAC) http://cdiac.ornl.gov/ftp/ndp030/global.1751_2013.ems accessed June 2016. Note: Emissions in million tons (MMt) of carbon. To convert to MMt of CO2, multiply by 3.67

Carbon Dioxide Emissions, 1965-2015, Industrialized and Developing Countries (Million Metric Tons of CO2 )   Source: U.S. Energy Information Administration http://www.eia.gov/forecasts/aeo/data/browser/#/?id=10-IEO2016&sourcekey=0 accessed June 2016. Notes: OECD = Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development (primarily industrialized countries, while non-OECD are developing countries). The vertical axis in Figure 12.3 measures million metric tons of carbon dioxide. (the weight of a given amount of emissions measured in tons of carbon dioxide is about 3.67 times the total weight in carbon). The emissions estimates of the U.S. EIA shown here differ slightly from those of the CDIAC shown in Figure 12.2.  

Percentage of Global CO2 Emissions by Country/Region Source: Jos G.J. Olivier et al., European Commission’s Joint Research Centre, 2014.  “Trends in global CO2 emissions: 2014 Report” http://edgar.jrc.ec.europa.eu/news_docs/jrc-2014-trends-in-global-co2-emissions-2014-report-93171.pdf

Per-Capita Carbon Dioxide Emissions, by Country Source: Source: British Petroleum, Energy charting tool 2015.

Carbon Stabilization Scenarios: Required Emissions Reductions Source: IPCC, 2014d, p. 11. Note: Upper line represents IPCC RCP 4.5 scenario (moderate stabilization in the range of 530 – 580 ppm CO2 accumulation) and lower line represents IPCC RCP 2.6 scenario (stronger stabilization at 430 – 480 ppm CO2 accumulation).

Business as Usual, Paris Pledges, and 2°C Path 150 +4.5°C 120 Business as usual 90 Pledges Gigatons of CO2 equivalent per year +3.5°C 60 Goal Source: http://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2015/11/23/world/carbon-pledges.html?_r=1 Note: 2°C = 3.6°F; 3.5°C = 6.3°F; 2 4.5°C = 8.1°F. 30 +2°C 2000 2030 2100

Can Renewable Energy Provide a Solution to Climate Change? Long-term link between economic growth and carbon emissions Need to “decouple” economic activity from carbon emissions Micro issues: Market pricing and policy actions determine speed of transition Macro issues: An end to growth, or a new kind of energy economy? Or both? Renewable energy is rapidly moving from being a “niche” option to a major alternative to fossil fuels. This suggests that the long-term trend of rising carbon emissions accompanying economic growth could change. But how large is the potential, and can economic growth and emissions be “decoupled”?

Global Energy Consumption 2013, by source Figure 11.1 Source: International Energy Agency, 2015.

Figure 11.2: United States Energy Consumption 2014, by source Source: U.S. Energy Information Administration, 2016.

Figure 11.4: Projected 2035 Global Energy Demand Source: International Energy Agency, 2015a.

World Primary Energy Demand by Fuel and Scenario, 2040 Current Policy Scenario Total Demand: 19,643 Mtoe Aggressive Policy Scenario Total Demand: 15,197 Mtoe Figure 11.5 Source: International Energy Agency, 2015a.

Global Potential for Energy Efficiency Figure 11.18 2040 Aggressive Policy Scenario Source: Based on Blok et al., 2008; updated data from IEA 2015a.

Availability of Global Renewable Energy Energy Source Total Global Availability (trillion watts) Availability in Likely-Developable Locations (trillion watts) Wind 1700 40 – 85 Wave > 2.7 0.5 Geothermal 45 0.07 – 0.14 Hydroelectric 1.9 1.6 Tidal 3.7 0.02 Solar photovoltaic 6500 340 Concentrated solar power 4600 240 But the available sources of renewable energy, especially wind and solar, are much more than enough to supply all the world’s energy needs. Total global energy use in 2006: 15.8 Trillion Watts Source: Jacobson and Delucchi (2011); U.S. Energy Information Administration; Stanford Engineering News, http://engineering.stanford.edu/news/wind-could-meet-many-times-world-total-power-demand-2030-researchers-say

Infrastructure Requirements for Supplying All Global Energy in 2030 from Renewable Sources Energy Source Percent of 2030 Global Power Supply Number of Plants/Devices Needed Worldwide Wind turbines 50 3,800,000 Wave power plants 1 720,000 Geothermal plants 4 5,350 Hydroelectric plants 900 Tidal turbines 490,000 Rooftop solar PV systems 6 1.7 billion Solar PV power plants 14 40,000 Concentrated solar power plants 20 49,000 TOTAL 100 Shifting entirely to renewable energy would require massive investment in new infrastructure to replace the current fossil fuel infrastructure. But the overall land requirement is not a high proportion of global land area, and in many cases can be combined with agricultural uses. Land requirement: about 2% of total global land area. (Can be combined with agricultural uses) Source: Jacobson and Delucchi (2011).

Growth in Solar and Wind Power, 2003-2012 Figure 11.14 Source: Renewables 2016 Global Status Report http://www.ren21.net/wp-content/uploads/2016/06/GSR_2016_KeyFindings1.pdf. For data before 2005, Renewables 2013 Global Status Report.

Levelized Cost of Different Energy Sources, United States Solar PV, utility scale Solar thermal electricity Wind-onshore Wind-offshore Hydroelectric Gas combined cycle Coal Figure 11.10 Nuclear $0 $50 $100 $150 $200 $250 $/MWh EIA Lazard Sources: Lazard, 2014; U.S. EIA, 2016c. Note: Lazard values are midpoints of estimated ranges.

Externality Cost of Various Electricity Generating Methods, European Union Figure 11.15 €2012/MWh Source: European Commission, 2014.

Projected Cost of Electricity Generating Approaches, 2020 Cents per kilowatt-hour Figure 11.16 Source: Jacobson and Delucchi, 2011b.

Solar Energy Price Decreases, 1998-2013 Costs of solar energy have declined steadily with technological progess for both commercial and residential PV systems. Source: Barbose, G., S. Weaver and N. Darghouth. 2014. Tracking the Sun VII: an historical summary of the installed price of photovoltaics in the United States from 1998 to 2013. SunShot Initiative, U.S. Department of Energy

Projected further decreases in solar costs, 2015 - 2040 The solar cost decline is expected to continue, briringing solar into a fully competitive range even without subsidies or tax breaks. Source: Feldman et al 2014. Photovoltaic System Pricing Trends: historical, recent, and near-term projections. U.S. Department of Energy SunShot Initiative: http://www.nrel.gov/docs/fy14osti/62558.pdf

Cost decreases are both cause and effect of increased adoption of solar. Economies of scale contribute to driving prices down, and this trend is particualrly marked in recent years. Source: Solar Energy Industries Association, 2014. “Solar Energy Facts: 2014 Year in Review”. http://www.seia.org/sites/default/files/Q4%202014%20SMI%20Fact%20Sheet.pdf

Global Clean Energy Investments, 2004-2015 Source: UNEP and Bloomberg New Energy Finance, 2016, Figure 4.

Bloomberg New Energy Finance: Solar will “emerge as the least-cost generation technology in most countries by 2030.” Wind and solar will account for 64% of new generating capacity to be installed over the next 25 years. Bloomberg New Energy Finance. 2016. “New Energy Outlook 2016: Long-Term Projections of the Global Energy Sector.” #NEO2016. http://www.bloomberg.com/company/new-energy-outlook/

Policies for the Renewable Energy Transition Subsidy reform: eliminate fossil fuel subsidies Pigovian tax on externalities including carbon  Energy research and development Feed-in tariffs Subsidies, including favorable tax provisions and loan terms Renewable energy targets Efficiency standards and labelling Financing mechanisms with zero up-front costs With renewable energy on the cusp of market competitiveness, active policies have the potential to accelerate the shift to renewables. These policies are backed by sound economics, including: internalizing negative externalities through taxes; internalizing positive externalities through subsides, tax breaks, and preferential financing; investment in R&D; efficiency standards; and renewable energy policy targets at the state, local, and federal level.

http://www.ase.tufts.edu/gdae/Pubs/climate/ClimatePolicyBrief4.pdf

Carbon in Soils, Grasslands, Forests, and Wetlands Carbon release from soil degradation and deforestation is major atmospheric carbon source. Preventing releases from agricultural soils, wetlands, and grasslands would lessen human-released carbon by around 20%. Preventing further deforestation would reduce emissions by another 10%. Enhancing uptake by forests, grasslands, and soils would be equivalent to reducing net emissions by an additional 30% or more.