Linking school mathematics and jobs? Vijay Reddy Human Sciences Research Council Presentation to the RESEP meeting Stellenbosch, 28 September 2017

Mathematics and Science outcomes in SA: An overview of TIMSS 1995-2015 Ave scale score (SE) Achievement distribution Grade 9 TIMSS 2015 372 (4.5) Grade 9 TIMSS 2011 352 (2.5)   Grade 9 TIMSS 2002 285 (4.2) Grade 8 TIMSS 2002 264 (5.5) Grade 8 TIMSS 1999 275 (6.8) Grade 8 TIMSS 1995 276 (6.7) Scores reflected the largest distribution in mathematics of all participating countries “Performance reflective of inequalities” No change in mean Improvement by 1 1 2 grades The variance of the mathematics scores in the South African range of scores decreases slightly Best improvements at lower end. Equity and Excellence Mathematics and science achievement scores improved from a ‘very low’ (1995, 1999, 2003) to a ‘low’ (2011, 2015) national average ( 1 2 grade) Scores highly unequal by school type Nurturing Green Shoots

Contextual dynamics on mathematics achievement Home SES indicators Positive as the number of assets increases. Positive as levels of parent education increases. School SES Indicators Positive as historical resource provision increases. Higher resourced schools outperform the no-fee paying schools. Speaking the language of instruction at home Positive for convergence of languages, negative for divergence. Age Student achievement is higher for age-grade appropriate students and negative for others Gender The gender achievement gap is small to non-existent. Gender differences favours girls for higher educational expectations, higher levels of parental engagement and experiencing lower levels of bullying. School safety Students in schools that are safer, with higher discipline tend to perform better.

Student progression and pathways through secondary school & predicting future outcomes 1. Importance of foundational mathematics skills  1. Mathematics achievement gaps persists through secondary school. Mathematics performance in early grades is strongly predictive of survival to grade 12 2. Educational pathways and progression through secondary school   2. TIMSS math performance in 9th grade predicts educational pathways and performance in subsequent years. There is the predictable story of who succeeds in school (resourced schools, parental education, positive attitudes), but there are also some students who succeed against the odds (from under-resourced low fee paying schools).

www.lmip.org.za www.timss-sa.org.za

One purpose of education is to provide learners with the knowledge and skills that will help them to enter the labour market and obtain reasonable jobs. 1. The SA labour market, jobs for new entrants and skills needed for these jobs. 2. The role of Numeracy & mathematical skills in these jobs 3. The South African mathematics performance trends through TIMSS This presentation is in five parts: 4. Tertiary Qualifications 5. Which sectors and jobs does the education go to?

The link between school education and labour market outcomes “The highest level of poverty is among individuals with the lowest level of education whereas the lowest poverty level is among those with higher education” StatsSA, 2017 The move towards a knowledge economy places different demands on the labour force: Higher (‘upskilled’) education levels Lifelong learning regardless of employment type or previous education Decision-making and problem-solving skills (NOT task-specific) Technological / ICT skills Inter- and intra-personal skills (such as communication) What are the signals of skills needs (especially mathematical and numeracy skills) from the labour market and does the schooling system respond effectively.

1. The South African Economy & Skills Low economic growth rates, leading to poor employment growth. Employment growth is not sufficient for the large numbers of youth coming to the labour market for the first time. Sectors where people work and the types of jobs are changing: absence of low-wage jobs in the manufacturing sector, structural shift towards a service economy and dependence on high-skilled financial services. There is a structural mismatch between labour demand and supply. The economy and labour market shows a demand for high skilled workers, but there is a surplus of low-skilled workers.

The Labour Force and Education (2014) Education Levels of the Labour Force (million) The Labour Force 15 million employed 20% has a tertiary qualification, 32% completed senior certificate, ½ the workforce without grade 12. 8 million unemployed 90% African, 5 mill are 5 to 34 years and increasing as more young people join the labour force, 3 mill have less than grade 12 education.

Sectoral Contribution to GDP, 2014 Employment by sector, 2014 Sector % Wholesale and Retail 22 Govt. Services 21 Manufacturing 13 Financial Private Households 9 Construction 8 Transport 6 Agriculture 5 Mining & Quarrying 2 Utilities 1

Jobs of today Job type Employed 2014 Change from 2010 Job description Math Skills? Managers 8.9% 25.4% CEOs, Senior Officials, Legislators, Administrative, Commercial, Production, Specialised Services, Hospitality, Retails and other Services Manager. Numeracy Mathematical Professionals 11.2% Physical, Mathematical & Engineering; Science; Health; Teaching; Business & Admin; ICT; Legal, Social & Cultural. Numeracy   Technicians& Assoc Prof 7% 6.8% Business & Admin; Legal, Social and Cultural; ICT Technicians. Clerical support workers 10.9% 14.4% General & Keyboard; Customer Services; Numerical and Material Recording; Other Clerical Support workers. Services & Sales Worker 15.3% 24.6% Personal Service; Sales Workers; Personal Care; Protective Services. Skilled agriculture & forestry, fishery, related trades workers 12.5% 12.4% Market-oriented Skilled Agricultural; Market-oriented forestry; Subsistence Farmers, Fishers, Hunters Gatherers. Building and Related; Metal, Machinery; Handicraft and Printing; Electrical and Electronics; Food Processing, Wood Working, Garment and Other Craft and Related Trades Workers. Plant & machine operators 8.3% 13.8% Stationary Plant and Machine; Assemblers; Drivers and Mobile Plant Elementary occupations 28.2% Cleaners & Helpers; Agricultural, Forestry & Fishery Labourers; Labourers in Mining, Construction, Manufacturing and Transport; Food Preparation Assistants; Refuse Workers and Other Elementary Workers.

Sectors where Engineering qualifications work 118 700 degrees 382 700 Post gr 12 Cert & Diploma Financial 31 19 Manufacturing 23 18 Construction 15 13 Community, social, personal services 8 14 Transport 7 9 Wholesale and Retail 6 10 Mining and quarrying 5 Electricity; gas and water supply 4 Agriculture; forestry and fishing 1

SA has shown the largest improvement- 3. TIMSS Math performance at Grade 9 Change in math achievement between 2003 and 2015 SA has shown the largest improvement- 87 points in math 90 points in science TIMSS MEASURES TRENDS. IT IS THE ONLY MEASURE IN SA WHICH RELIABLY TELLS US HOW WE HAVE CHANGED OVER TIME. SA IS A LOW PERFORMING COUNTRY AMONG THE SET OF COUNTRIES WHO PARTICIPATE. HOWEVER WHEN WE LOOK AT CHANGES FOR OURSELF FROM 2003 TO 2015 WE IMPROVED BY CLOSE TO 90 TIMSS POINTS. OF COURSE WE ARE STARTING OFF A VERY LOW BASE. THAT MEANS ON AVERAGE THE PERFORMANCE IMPROVED BY 2 GRADE LEVELS. WE STILL HAVE A WAY TO GO. WE ARE IMPROVING BUT NEED TO INCREASE THE PACE OF THE CHANGE.

South African Math Achievement: 2003 to 2015 Mathematics Ave scale score (SE) TIMSS 2015 372 (4.5) TIMSS 2011 352 (2.5) TIMSS 2003 285 (4.2) 20 67 THE HORIZONTAL BARS GIVES US THE SCORE DISTRIBUTION AND THE MIDDLE LINE THE MEAN SCORE. THE FACT THAT THE BARS ARE MOVING TO THE RIGHT, ESPECIALLY ON LHS, SHOWS THAT THE BEST IMPROVEMENTS HAVE BEEN THE LOWEST PERFORMERS, 5th 25th 95% confidence interval for average (±2SE) 75th 95th Percentiles of performance

Math achievement by TIMSS proficiency benchmarks, (i) 2003 to 2015 (ii) school type

Change in provincial achievement 2003 to 2015 The 2003 difference between highest and lowest for science was 205 points. In 2015 it was 77 points WC: Decrease by 33 points for science and 23 points for math

Change in home provincial contexts (2003-2015) Access to flush toilet Access to running tap water Household education above matric WC NC NW MP LP KZ GT FS EC Learners in households with flush toilets score 56 points higher in Math than those who do not. Learners in households with running water score 54 points higher in Math than those who do not. Learners in households with post Grade 12 education score 43 points higher in Math than those who do not.

Change in school provincial contexts (2003-2015) Bullied on a weekly basis Frequently speaking the language of the test High emphasis on academic success WC NC NW MP LP KZ GT FS EC Learners who do not experience bullying score 68 points higher in Math than those who do not. Learners who frequently speak the language of the test at home score 60 points higher in Math than those who do not. Learners in school with a high emphasis on academic success score 34 points higher in Math than those who do not.

Gr 5:The early educational home environment

Gr 5: Home literacy and numeracy activities and achievement Average Achievement 27 % 415 Learners whose parents reported spending time with them on early literacy and numeracy activities had higher achievement. 367 66 % 339 Hardly ever 7 %

How ready are learners for school?

An early start in school There was a positive relationship between number of years in pre-primary education and mathematics achievement 390 384 362 353 10% of learners 28% of learners 14% of learners 48% of learners

Question. Is this Pace of Change adequate?

TIMSS scores & Future projections…? YEAR Grade 9 Math scores Targets as set out in the National Development Plan and DBE Strategic Planning 2031 460? 500 2027 440? 2023 420? 420 2019 402? 2015 372 2011 352 2003 285 One of the priorities of the NDP driving national development and included in the DBE Strategic Plan (2016) is international assessments – the TIMSS 2030 target is set at centre point 500 score points in the DBE Strategic Plan (2016). NDP 2013 - by 2023 the score for SA would have improved to 420 and 500 by 2030. In addition SA should improve its position by at least 10 places by 2030 (NDP, 2013).

4. Progress from school to tertiary completion Key constraint is quantity and quality of math competences from schooling

University & TVET Completers, 2014   TOTAL Business, Economic & Management Science Science, Engineering Technology Humanities Services Universities : Diplomas and Degrees 185394 50380 27% 55574 30% 79749 43% TVET Colleges NCV 4 7405 3824 52% 1628 22% 1953 26% TVET Colleges NATED 6 24178 13886 57% 7925 33% 2367 10% Completers from University and more especially TVET colleges a concern. Change university enrolment and completion targets to 35% science and 35% humanities.

Gender difference in university enrolments and completions, 2014

Key Points We must improve basic education, especially in the Numeracy/ Mathematics and Literacy/Languages areas; Recognise the importance of school mathematical knowledge and skills for the job market Mathematical skills are versatile and we need higher numbers in STEM qualifications than are needed by labour market. We need data, but we also need to examine the lens that we interpret the data. How do we (researchers) shape a research agenda. .

The early educational home environment