Insights into New South Wales greenhouse gas emissions: sources, trends and projections The Future of Energy in the Hunter: a seminar exploring the energy future of our region, Hunter Environmental Institute, 15 June 2011

Sources of greenhouse gas emissions Total NSW emissions in 2009 - 161 Million tonnes CO2e Source: Australian Greenhouse Emissions Information System

Sources of greenhouse gas emissions Total NSW emissions in 2009 - 161 Million tonnes CO2e Source: Australian Greenhouse Emissions Information System

Sources of greenhouse gas emissions Total NSW emissions in 2009 - 161 Million tonnes CO2e Source: Australian Greenhouse Emissions Information System

Sources of greenhouse gas emissions Total NSW emissions in 2009 - 161 Million tonnes CO2e Source: Australian Greenhouse Emissions Information System

Sources of greenhouse gas emissions Total NSW emissions in 2009 - 161 Million tonnes CO2e Source: Australian Greenhouse Emissions Information System

Sources of greenhouse gas emissions Total NSW emissions in 2009 - 161 Million tonnes CO2e Source: Australian Greenhouse Emissions Information System

Sources of greenhouse gas emissions Total NSW emissions in 2009 - 161 Million tonnes CO2e Source: Australian Greenhouse Emissions Information System

Source: Australian Greenhouse Emissions Information System This chart shows the trend in emissions since 1990, the Kyoto Protocol base year. Total emissions in NSW have been relatively stable since 1990, but this masks sectoral differences. In particular, increases in energy emissions have been offset by reductions in other sectors. The reductions in agriculture and land clearing emissions largely reflect the effects of extended drought. Source: Australian Greenhouse Emissions Information System

Source: Australian Greenhouse Emissions Information System This chart shows the trend in emissions since 1990, the Kyoto Protocol base year. Total emissions in NSW have been relatively stable since 1990, but this masks sectoral differences. In particular, increases in energy emissions have been offset by reductions in other sectors. The reductions in agriculture and land clearing emissions largely reflect the effects of extended drought. Source: Australian Greenhouse Emissions Information System

Source: Australian Greenhouse Emissions Information System This chart shows the trend in emissions since 1990, the Kyoto Protocol base year. Total emissions in NSW have been relatively stable since 1990, but this masks sectoral differences. In particular, increases in energy emissions have been offset by reductions in other sectors. The reductions in agriculture and land clearing emissions largely reflect the effects of extended drought. Source: Australian Greenhouse Emissions Information System

Source: Australian Greenhouse Emissions Information System This chart shows the trend in emissions since 1990, the Kyoto Protocol base year. Total emissions in NSW have been relatively stable since 1990, but this masks sectoral differences. In particular, increases in energy emissions have been offset by reductions in other sectors. The reductions in agriculture and land clearing emissions largely reflect the effects of extended drought. Source: Australian Greenhouse Emissions Information System

Source: Australian Greenhouse Emissions Information System This chart shows the trend in emissions since 1990, the Kyoto Protocol base year. Total emissions in NSW have been relatively stable since 1990, but this masks sectoral differences. In particular, increases in energy emissions have been offset by reductions in other sectors. The reductions in agriculture and land clearing emissions largely reflect the effects of extended drought. Source: Australian Greenhouse Emissions Information System

Source: Australian Greenhouse Emissions Information System This chart shows the trend in emissions since 1990, the Kyoto Protocol base year. Total emissions in NSW have been relatively stable since 1990, but this masks sectoral differences. In particular, increases in energy emissions have been offset by reductions in other sectors. The reductions in agriculture and land clearing emissions largely reflect the effects of extended drought. Source: Australian Greenhouse Emissions Information System

Source: Australian Greenhouse Emissions Information System This chart shows the trend in emissions since 1990, the Kyoto Protocol base year. Total emissions in NSW have been relatively stable since 1990, but this masks sectoral differences. In particular, increases in energy emissions have been offset by reductions in other sectors. The reductions in agriculture and land clearing emissions largely reflect the effects of extended drought. Source: Australian Greenhouse Emissions Information System

NSW electricity use Sources: ABARE Energy update 2010

NSW electricity use – growing faster than population Sources: ABARE Energy update 2010, ABS Population estimates (3105.0.65)

Coal mine production Source: Coal Services

Coal mine emissions (fugitive emissions) Sources: Coal Services, Australian Greenhouse Emissions Information System

Transport - Passenger cars Source: Australian Greenhouse Emissions Information System, DCCEE Australia's emissions projections, OEH analysis

Transport - Passenger cars Source: Australian Greenhouse Emissions Information System, DCCEE Australia's emissions projections, OEH analysis

Transport - Passenger cars Source: Australian Greenhouse Emissions Information System, DCCEE Australia's emissions projections, OEH analysis

Oil prices Source: DCCEE Australia's emissions projections

Oil prices and new car fuel efficiency Source: DCCEE Australia's emissions projections

Agriculture emissions Source: Australian Greenhouse Emissions Information System

Agriculture emissions – Livestock herd Source: Australian Greenhouse Emissions Information System

Agriculture emissions – Livestock herd Source: Australian Greenhouse Emissions Information System

Agriculture emissions Source: Australian Greenhouse Emissions Information System

Meeting a 5% reduction by 2020? Source: Australian Greenhouse Emissions Information System, Commonwealth Treasury ALPF, OEH analysis

Meeting a 5% reduction by 2020? Source: Australian Greenhouse Emissions Information System, Commonwealth Treasury ALPF, OEH analysis

Meeting a 5% reduction by 2020? Source: Australian Greenhouse Emissions Information System, Commonwealth Treasury ALPF, OEH analysis

Meeting a 5% reduction by 2020? Source: Australian Greenhouse Emissions Information System, Commonwealth Treasury ALPF, OEH analysis

Meeting a 5% reduction by 2020? Source: Australian Greenhouse Emissions Information System, Commonwealth Treasury ALPF, OEH analysis

Meeting a 5% reduction by 2020? Source: Australian Greenhouse Emissions Information System, Commonwealth Treasury ALPF, OEH analysis

Meeting a 5% reduction by 2020? Source: Australian Greenhouse Emissions Information System, Commonwealth Treasury ALPF, OEH analysis

Meeting a 5% reduction by 2020? Source: Australian Greenhouse Emissions Information System, Commonwealth Treasury ALPF, OEH analysis

Meeting a 5% reduction by 2020? Source: Australian Greenhouse Emissions Information System, Commonwealth Treasury ALPF, OEH analysis

Meeting a 5% reduction by 2020? Source: Australian Greenhouse Emissions Information System, Commonwealth Treasury ALPF, OEH analysis

What about meeting a 20% reduction by 2020?

Can energy efficiency assist in achieving significant emission reductions by 2020?

NSW electricity - efficiency opportunities Sources: ABARE Energy update 2010, ABS Population estimates (3105.0.65)

We can use electricity more efficiently 36% less Per capita difference: 4200 kWh NSW population: 7.2 million Potential savings: 30,000 GWh GHG savings: 27 Mt CO2e Sources: ABARE Energy update 2010, ABS Population estimates (3105.0.65), US Census Bureau, US Energy Information Administration

There is great potential in NSW for cost effective savings… Sector Savings (GWh) Residential 5,000 Commercial/Manufacturing 12,000 Industrial 8,000 Total 25,000

Source: ClimateWorks Australia – Low Carbon Growth Plan for Australia http://www.climateworksaustralia.org/low_carbon_growth_plan.html

Reducing demand will also alter the supply mix Sources: AEMO 2010 Electricity statement of opportunities, MMA modelling, NSW MACC 2020, McKinsey & Company and OEH analysis

“Change has considerable psychological impact on the human mind “Change has considerable psychological impact on the human mind. To the fearful it is threatening as it means things may get worse. To the hopeful it is encouraging because things may get better. To the confident it is inspiring because the challenge exists to make things better.” King Whitney Jr., Wall Street Journal, 7 June 1967