IMPACT OF BORDER CONTROLS WITHIN SCHENGEN FOR THE SINGLE MARKET ROAD TRANSPORT SECTOR CASE STUDY

Time: early 2016 (refugee crisis) Focus on road transport only Introduction Transport & Mobility Leuven was requested by EP IMCO Committee to study costs of abandoning Schengen treaty Time: early 2016 (refugee crisis) Focus on road transport only Only direct costs (waiting at the border) Tim Breemersch EP Hearing Transport Committee 28/2/17

Transparent and simple Bottom-up approach: Methodology Transparent and simple Bottom-up approach: Amount of cross-border trips X Waiting time at border per vehicle Value of time No behavioural change assumed Tim Breemersch EP Hearing Transport Committee 28/2/17

Amount of cross border trips 3 types of transport Passenger cars (PC) Coach Heavy Goods Vehicles (HGV) Main data source: ETISplus project (EC FP7) Transport flows between (Schengen) countries (tonnes) Converted to # vehicles Routes estimated using Trans-Tools Tim Breemersch EP Hearing Transport Committee 28/2/17

Amount of cross border trips Results 80 million HGV border crossings annually in Schengen zone (PC: 205 million) Top 5 Germany: 16 million France: 10 million Belgium: 9.5 million Netherlands: 7.5 million Austria: 5 million Tim Breemersch EP Hearing Transport Committee 28/2/17

Waiting time & value of time Literature review Waiting time Low scenario: 30 minutes for HGV (10 minutes PC) High scenario: 60 minutes for HGV (20 minutes PC) Value of time Should vary per cargo type, but insufficient data Singular value of €50/vehicle/hour Tim Breemersch EP Hearing Transport Committee 28/2/17

Direct time loss costs of reinstating border controls Conclusions Direct time loss costs of reinstating border controls High scenario: 5.1 billion €/y (4 billion for HGV) Low scenario: 2.6 billion €/y (2 billion for HGV) Costs not accounted for: Secondary effects: Extra vehicles needed to transport same amount of cargo Other logistic chain losses (more stock needed, delays in production) Tourism, workforce mobility,… Costs for non-Schengen countries Tim Breemersch EP Hearing Transport Committee 28/2/17

Tim.Breemersch@tmleuven.be +32 16 74 51 23 Thank you! Tim.Breemersch@tmleuven.be +32 16 74 51 23