Bureau of Meteorology Activities as a GPC of Long Range Forecasts Dr David Jones Australian Bureau of Meteorology EXPERT TEAM ON OPERATIONAL PREDICTIONS FROM SUB-SEASONAL TO LONG TIME-SCALES   EXETER, UK, 10-14 MARCH 2014 Acknowledgement Oscar Alves, Andrew Watkins, Lynette Bettio & Andrew Charles

Long Range Forecast Service Delivering useful long range predictions for Australia and WMO member countries Current seasonal outlooks for Australia based on the dynamical climate model POAMA Probability of rainfall/temperature in Tercile/Above Below Median categories A range of predictions of PDFs – e.g., probability of exceedence Trial of dynamical intraseasonal forecasts Dynamical model predictions for ocean conditions & and experimental forecasts for extreme events Focus on the Pacific and Indian Oceans Developing forecasts for TCs, coral bleaching and heatwaves

Recent POAMA 2.4M improvements POAMA2.4m (multiweek) became fully operational in early 2013, and implemented for GPC services in early 2014 T47L17 + improved physics (land surface, radiation, gravity wave drag, cloud microphysics, etc) Land surface scheme (ALI) is more realistic and initialized daily Increased number of ensemble members of hind-cast (30 member) over the last 30 years (updated in real-time), providing better hindcast skill estimates Real-time forecasts (33 ensemble members twice per week) using a 1981 to 2010 base period Forecasts use a lagged 99 member ensemble Improved accessibility – OpenDAP server http://opendap.bom.gov.au:8080/thredds/bmrc-poama-catalog.html

The Coupled Model: Predictive Ocean Atmosphere Model for Australia Australian Community Ocean Model (ACOM) v2 POAMA BoM Atmospheric Model (BAM) v3 Simple land-surface model = + + POAMA=Predictive Ocean Atmosphere Model for Australia Forecasts run for 9 months Atmospheric model: Horizontal resolution ~250km 17 vertical levels Ocean model: Zonal resolution ~220 km Meridional resolution ~55km (tropics) to ~165 km (poles) 25 vertical levels

Model+Assim Development POAMA Development Phases and Timelines POAMA Phases 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018+ Model+Assim Development Dev new coupled model, Dev assimilation, New physics, tune for seasonal, part of larger modelling effort POAMA-2 (BAM+ACOM2: ~ 250km) Operational Build and Hindcast Bring components together, build system, Coupled re-analyses, hind-cast set, Ensemble strategy, Skill and product evaluation POAMA-3 (ACCESS CM1: ~ 150km) Build and Hindcast Operationalisation Operational Operationalisation Complete comprehensive hindcast, re-analyses up to date, trans to op machine, op data feeds, trial period, eval op products, declare operational POAMA-4 (ACCESS CM2: ~ 75km) Build and Hindcast Operationalisation Model+Assim Development Operational NMOC/Services support, evaluation, monitoring, case studies, new products, interface to applications, etc

Public Website Operational Products: SSTs, NINO 3,3.4,4 & IOD available

Pacific SST skill: Temporal correlation of monthly SSTA POAMA-2 POAMA-1.5 Correlation Forecast Lead time (months) ECMWF System 3 Frontier Research Centre Model (Japan) NCEP Climate forecast system V1 & 2 POAMA 1.5 & 2

POAMA skill - Rainfall Correlation with (CMAP) Rainfall How well does POAMA do with the rainfall patterns? Highest correlation is found in the equatorial Pacific and parts of the southwest Pacific.

Reliability – Australian rainfall M24 So what was POAMA’s reliability like? Here is the reliability diagram for POAMA – when it’s forecasts are considered reliable, they fall within the grey area. The dots are relative to size, so as expected, the bigger dots fall in the middle probabilities. So how does POAMA perform? Well if we look at this dot here *CLICK* … etc Not isolated to us though - *CLICK* other international models too. Fig 4 from CAWCR Technical Report 39

Architecture for Seasonal Forecast Generation and Publication System

The Bureau as a GPC Hindcasts verified following the LRFVS, though lagging behind with M2.4 Real time forecasts

New Rich GPC Webpave Forecast down to "points" as well as data http://poama.bom.gov.au/experimental/pasap/

Building The Next Generation Outlook Service SCO-Rebuild project – 2013/2014 Key Features Range of user options: simple, intermediate and advanced Richer user interface with map interface (“MetEye”) based on BoM.Map Video briefing and contextual information Drill down to locations Seamless forecasting – seasonal and intraseasonal

The new Seasonal Climate Outlook Planned release in July 2014 Based on user preferences More interactive More explanation Multi-week forecasts Coming: additional fields such as evaporation and humidity The biggest change people will notice with the new SCO design, is it's interactivity. Click on a location, and an information bubble appears; zooming in for details or zooming out for the big picture. Users will be able to tailor the information to their particular needs: location, type of data (rainfall, temp); format of data (tables, graphs); while still being able to view the national outlook. This was a big outcome of users' "wants" from the review process. The new SCO will be easy to navigate, with easily accessible average (climatological) maps and forecast accuracy information. We hope to also include monthly podcasts with a climatologist explaining the outlook, as well as many educational features. One of the many advantages of a dynamical model such as POAMA is it's potential to produce a more extensive range of outlooks for indicators such as sea surface temperatures, wind, humidity and evaporation. The design of our new SCO will enable the incorporation of additional fields as they become available, as well as products such as multi-week outlooks in addition to the 3-monthly outlooks. It also opens up the possibility of a service for predicting climate extremes.

Capacity Building Extensive training of the Pacific NMS personnel during in-country visits Series of training workshops across the Pacific Digitising to improve access to data to train and verify forecasts

The Bureau as a GPC The BoM is a producer of LRFs, following a fixed time schedule Products are available to other GPCs, RCCs and NMHSs Forecasts provided to the LRF Lead Centre, LC MME and APCC Hindcasts have been verified following the Standardized Verification System (some lag with new system) Systems are scientifically documented A new GPC website has been produced The BoM is heavily involved in training and capacity building activities in the South Pacific