Understanding the UK’s road safety performance July 2016

Understanding the UK’s Road Safety Performance Introduction Roads Road users Vehicles Recommendations

Understanding the UK’s Road Safety Performance Road fatalities in EU28 2020 EU road casualty target approx. 15,000 deaths

Understanding the UK’s Road Safety Performance Road fatalities in EU28 The downward casualty trend is mainly associated with cars Progress for VRUs (pedestrians, motorcyclists and cyclists) is not as good

Understanding the UK’s Road Safety Performance Road deaths per million inhabitants Source: DfT Source: EC

Understanding the UK’s Road Safety Performance Road deaths per billion vehicle-kilometres Source: EC 2012-2014

Understanding the UK’s Road Safety Performance Introduction Roads Road users Vehicles Recommendations

Understanding the UK’s Road Safety Performance Road deaths by speed limit Speed limits (km/h) Netherlands Sweden UK Speed limits (mph) 30, 40, 50 44% 18% 31% 20, 30 60, 70, 80 43% 49% 17% 40, 50 90, 100 6% 26% 39% 60 110, 120 5% 7% 13% 70 >120 3% 0% >70 Source: CARE 2013

Understanding the UK’s Road Safety Performance Road deaths by road type Source: EC

Understanding the UK’s Road Safety Performance Percentage of collisions at junctions Urban Rural Source: EC

Understanding the UK’s Road Safety Performance Fatalities per 1,000 km of motorway Source: EC

Understanding the UK’s Road Safety Performance Introduction Roads Road users Vehicles Recommendations

Understanding the UK’s Road Safety Performance Number of fatalities in 2013 by road user type Car or taxi Heavy goods vehicle Lorry <3.5 tonnes Moped Motorcycle Pedal cycle Pedestrian Other Total DK 79 1 17 11 15 33 34 190 NL 180 7 41 29 112 51 435 SE 144 5 3 40 14 42 2 255 UK 815 22 39 4 337 113 405 1752 Car or taxi Heavy goods vehicle Lorry <3.5 tonnes Moped Motorcycle Pedal cycle Pedestrian Other Total DK 14.1 0.2 3.0 2.0 2.7 5.9 6.1 0.0 33.9 NL 10.7 0.4 0.9 2.4 1.7 6.7 25.9 SE 15.1 0.5 0.3 4.2 1.5 4.4 26.7 UK 12.7 0.6 0.1 5.3 1.8 6.3 27.3 Source: EC

Understanding the UK’s Road Safety Performance GB KSI road casualties This chart shows a fairly simple comparison of casualty numbers by road user type over time. The values in this chart are indexed to the 2004 figure in order to compare how the casualty numbers changed over the period studied. Comparison of the trend in the number of car occupant casualites to the trend in pedestrians hit by cars shows that car occupants have declined more than pedestrians over the 10 year period 2004 to 2014. The trend for car occupants of new vehicles (<2 years old) and pedestrians hit by these vehicles shows an even bigger difference in trend between the two groups – car occupants in new cars have declined more than the number of pedestrians hit by these vehicles. Although there is likely to be a variety of measures which have contributed to these differences in trend, improvments to car safety are likely to have contributed. There are two types of vehicle safety Secondary safety – the protection provided to occupants in accidents e.g airbags, seatbeltsand crumple zones Primary safety - features that help drivers avoid accidents e.g. electronic stability control, lane assist The effect of primary safety is hard to measure as it involves predicting the number of accidents that haven’t happened, but we can develop statistical models to examine how secondary safety developments have influenced both car occupants and pedestrians. Develop logistic regression models with three explanatory variables: car registration year (newer cars are assumed to have improved secondary safety than older vehicles) year of accident (other changes in road safety will have influenced collision numbers) driver age and sex (takes into account the fact that older people are more often seriously injured than younger people, and driver different cars) Vehicle type (bigger cars protect their occupants better than smaller vehicles, but cause more injury to pedestrian casualties). Model the proportion of car driver casualties and pedestrian casualties killed or seriously injured by car registration year. Results on the next two slides show results of the model for KSI casualites in London (work for TfL completed last year). Previous analysis for Surrey County Council using data from the whole of GB showed a similar pattern. Source: TRL

Understanding the UK’s Road Safety Performance Ratio of number of fatalities among 18-24 year olds Source: TRL

Understanding the UK’s Road Safety Performance Pedal cyclists – safety in numbers? Source: EC

Understanding the UK’s Road Safety Performance Pedestrian deaths by age group Source: EC

Understanding the UK’s Road Safety Performance Population distributions UK 13.5% >65 Sweden 16.0% >65 The Netherlands 13.6% >65 Source: IRTAD

Understanding the UK’s Road Safety Performance Introduction Roads Road users Vehicles Recommendations

Understanding the UK’s Road Safety Performance Proportion of cars by age Source: EC

Understanding the UK’s Road Safety Performance Euro NCAP tested cars (2010-2013) sold in 2013 Source: EC

Understanding the UK’s Road Safety Performance Average pedestrian protection scores of cars sold in 2013 Source: EC

Understanding the UK’s Road Safety Performance Car secondary safety – KSI drivers, GB Your text The graph shows the modelled proportion of car driver casualties killed or seriously injured by registration year of the vehicle. [Reference levels: males 25-59, small family car, 2013] The downwards trend shows that improvements to car secondary safety have reduced the proportion of car driver casualties killed or seriously injured in collisions in London. Source: TRL

Understanding the UK’s Road Safety Performance Car driver casualty reduction: Largest reduction for younger males Changes in exposure Less driving by younger people? Improved vehicle safety Cuerden et al. (2015) estimated that secondary safety alone, from 2002, has prevented 11% of driver fatalities. Improved driver behaviour Education/ training/ Enforcement/ Licensing? Improved road design +++ Understanding the UK’s Road Safety Performance Car secondary safety – KSI drivers, GB Age (years) 24

Understanding the UK’s Road Safety Performance Car secondary safety – pedestrians, GB Your text The pedestrian model shows the proportion of pedestrian casualties killed or seriously injured in collisions where the pedestrian was hit by the front of a car. [Reference level: males 16-59, small family car, 2013] This suggests that the secondary safety changes to the front of cars have had little benefit for pedestrian casualties hit by the front of a vehicle. Although the trend in this line is slightly upwards, the main effect of registration year is not significant for this model, which indicates that the gradient of the line is not significantly different from zero. Hence, this suggests that although this modelling has not demonstrated any benefit of the secondary safety changes targeted at pedestrians in frontal collisions, it has not demonstrated any significant disbenefit either. Similarly flat trends are seen for pedal cycles and PTW riders. [There may be other changes which the model cannot observe or control for which may have occurred: It could be that cars with a newer registration year have a different exposure to potentially fatal or serious injury collisions with a pedestrian, in a way that is not included within the statistical model (e.g. if they were driven more aggressively around peak pedestrian movement times). It is plausible that improved bumper profiles and stiffness and softer bonnets do indeed improve the outcome for struck pedestrians, but that they are still categorised as being a casualty of at least serious injury severity because this covers a broad range of injuries.] Source: TRL

Understanding the UK’s Road Safety Performance Recommendations This work has highlighted various areas in which Britain’s road safety outcomes, though good, do not appear to be as good as those of some other countries. They point to the following broad recommendations: Higher standards of protection for vulnerable road users in vehicle safety regulation and Euro NCAP; Measures to improve the safety of young drivers and their passengers; Further investment in motorway safety (despite good current performance); A review of the safety of roads with speed limits of 60mph and above, including motorways; Better data to enable international comparison and evaluation.

Report by Brian Lawton and Caroline Fordham Presented by Richard Cuerden, Chief Scientist July 2016