Correlation between Heat Index and Violent or Nonviolent Crimes in Cities of the United States Alison Tiangson – Western Vance High School Tracy Neal – Fike High School

Introduction In this research, heat index which includes the temperature and relative humidity, were collected to show a positive relationship between violent and nonviolent crimes between the years 2012- 2014. Temperature was gathered from Weather Underground website Heat Index was calculated through the National Weather Service through the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) Crime data was collected from the FBI’s Uniform Crime Reporting program and Police Crime Statistics Nonviolent Crimes Burglary Larceny (Theft) Auto Theft Violent Crimes Murder Aggravated Assault Rape Robbery

Randomly Selected Cities Seattle, WA Minneapolis, MN Philadelphia, PA Denver, CO Fresno, CA Atlanta, GA Houston, TX

Previous Research CBS News

Microsoft Excel Software Visualizing Data Microsoft Excel Software Created Scatter Plots with the regression line Calculated the regression line equation Calculated the Pearson’s correlation coefficient (r) Calculated the coefficient of determination (r2) value Calculated p value – threshold value 5%

Results: Violent Crimes vs. Temperature

Results: Violent Crimes vs. Temperature

Violent Crimes vs. Average Temperature Pearson Correlation Coefficient (r), Determination of Coefficient (r2) and Slope Equation City Violent Crimes vs. Temperature r r2 Violent Crimes vs. Temperature (Avg.,Mean) Equation p value Houston 0.468722921 0.2197 y=6.0524x + 1368.6 0.001966914 Seattle 0.746661147 0.5575 y=2.941x + 158.13 0.0000000851548 Philadelphia 0.631646729 0.399 y=7.0026x + 1063.6 0.0000180297 Fresno 0.48211605 0.23234 y=1.1221x + 137.42 0.001452844 Atlanta 0.765154435 0.5855 y=3.5721x + 255.3 0.000000274572 Denver 0.68113296 0.4639 y =2.2268x + 265.87 0.00000241173 Minneapolis 0.594447446 0.3534 y=1.6532x + 255.49 0.0000659384

Results: Violent Crimes vs. Heat Index

Results: Violent Crimes vs. Heat Index

Violent Crimes vs Heat Index Pearson Correlation Coefficient (r), Determination of Coefficient (r2), and Slope Equation City Violent Crimes vs. Heat Index r r2 Violent Crimes vs. Heat Index Equation p value Houston 0.473039056 0.2238 y=4.9402x + 1440 0.0017863 Seattle 0.753113802 0.5672 y=2.8969x + 164.8 0.0000000058016 Philadelphia 0.599014268 0.3588 y=6.5743x + 1093.9 0.0000567213 Fresno 0.483277042 0.2336 y=1.1038x + 140.44 0.00141438 Atlanta 0.763845329 0.5835 y=3.2603x + 277.79 0.0000000298468 Denver 0.683156117 0.4667 y=2.2902x + 266.42 0.00000220324 Minneapolis 0.584139868 0.3412 y=1.626x + 257.26 0.0000918677

Results: Nonviolent Crimes vs. Temperature

Results: Nonviolent Crimes vs. Temperature

Nonviolent Crimes vs. Temperature r r2 Nonviolent Crimes vs. Average Temperature Pearson Correlation Coefficient (r) and Determination of Coefficient (r2) City Nonviolent Crimes vs. Temperature r r2 Nonviolent Crimes vs. Temperature (Avg., Mean) Equation p value Houston 0.2820727 0.0796 y=13.837x + 7992.8 0.0477824 Seattle 0.231923882 0.0417 y=8.7683x + 2377.5 0.1162165 Philadelphia 0.832302074 0.6927 y=30.132x + 2927.2 0.000000000156464 Fresno -0.3158948 .0998 y=-6.2534x + 2327.9 0.0302688 Atlanta 0.496817324 0.2468 y=8.9267x + 1732.7 0.001027169 Denver 0.805403997 0.6487 y=8.2287x + 944.31 0.00000000157285 Minneapolis 0.523017717 0.3412 y=8.5914x + 1224.2 0.000532374

Results: Nonviolent Crimes vs. Heat Index

Results: Nonviolent Crimes vs. Heat Index

Nonviolent Crimes vs. Heat Index Pearson Correlation Coefficient, Determination of Coefficient (r2), and Slope Equation City Nonviolent Crimes vs. Heat Index r r2 Nonviolent Crimes vs. Heat Index Equation p value Houston 0.291080437 0.0847 y=11.549x + 8137.9 0.03216 Seattle 0.204464322 0.0418 y=8.5773x + 2400.6 0.06077 Philadelphia 0.810979615 0.6577 y=29.066x + 3015.2 0.09066 Fresno -0.308149557 0.095 y=-5.9862x + 2300.1 Atlanta 0.507901988 0.258 y=8.3435x + 1777.1 0.001046 Denver 0.812668054 0.6608 y=8.5137x + 943.83 0.0000000206 Minneapolis 0.517116597 0.2674 y=8.5022x + 1231 0.000434

Conclusions The data gathered showed similar previous results in the increase of violent and nonviolent crimes in relation to temperature and heat index with reference to the coefficient of determination, Pearson correlation coefficient and the slope equation. Among the seven sample cities, only 4 (Seattle, Atlanta, Denver and Philadelphia) of the cities had stronger evidence proving that temperature and heat index impacted the violent or nonviolent crimes.

Other Variables Collecting data of temperature and heat index on a daily basis instead of a monthly basis will better show an accurate result of their correlation to crime rate increase or decrease. Further research needs to be done on crime versus extreme temperatures for longer periods of time in varied cities but with close population to better enhance the resources for the police departments. There are other variables that need to be accounted for when discussing crime, such as: population density racial and ethnic makeup age especially the youth education levels economic status tourists

Acknowledgements National Science Foundation for funding the Research Experience for Teachers Program Appalachian State University’s Computer Science Department. Dr. Rahman Tashakkori Dr. Mitch Parry Dr. Mary Beth Searcy Fellow RET participants Fike High School Western Vance High School